United StatesSan Diego - USAFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Keaton Hance #865United States2Andres Martin #340United States0

Sets 6-4 · 7-5Wed 23 Sept 2026, 02:11 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions4–544%

Edges0–20%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAndres Martin · 525 places

Keaton Hance

United States

An 18-year-old from Torrance, California, Hance finished runner-up in the 2026 Australian Open boys' singles and was the No. 4 seed at the US Open juniors in September 2026. He also won the 2025 US Open boys' doubles title with Jack Kennedy.

Current ranking: #865
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 18
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: —

Andres Martin

United States

Born on 7 July 2001, Martin reached a career-high ranking of No. 250 on 30 March 2026. The ITF lists sand/clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #340
Peak ranking: #250 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 Sep 2026, 21:29 · Europe/Bucharest

Andres Martin is the No. 322 professional meeting an 18-year-old ranked No. 865, and he should win this San Diego first round, with the leans pointing to straight sets given Hance's three recorded hard-court matches all finished 2-0 either way.

The quoted prices don't reward that: 1.22 on Martin to win and 1.33 on him to take the first set ask more than his hard-court record supports, and the two Hance prices were reviewed without offering value either.

Context

Hance's most recent competitive tennis was a US Open junior singles run that ended, twelve days before this match. He won three matches at a Grand Slam junior event and lost only to the boy who took the title, which is the clearest recent evidence of his level on hard courts. The counterpoint is the step up in opposition: Martin is 25 and ranked No. 322 with a full season of professional hard-court matches behind him.
- Hance was the No. 4 seed in the 2026 US Open boys' singles and opened against Brazil's Pedro Chabalgoity.
- Hance reached the quarter-finals, where Marcel Latak beat him on Louis Armstrong Stadium to reach the semi-finals.
- Marcel Latak went on to win the 2026 US Open boys' singles title.
ConfirmedSources checked 22 Sep 2026, 21:27 · Europe/Bucharest
Martin took set one in 10 of his 15 tracked hard-court matches at an average of 5.3 games to 3.9, then went 7-8 in set two.
If Martin wins the opening set as his record suggests, set two is where Hance's clearest opening lies: Martin has lost eight of 15 second sets in this sample, which averaged 10.4 games with four tiebreaks. Longer second sets and a possible decider are the counterweight to a straightforward 2-0, though nothing here displaces Martin as the stronger player.
- Martin won 10 of 15 hard-court matches tracked between 21 July and 27 August 2026, taking set one in 10 of them at 5.3 games to 3.9.
- He is 7-8 in second sets across the same 15 matches, which averaged 10.4 games with four tiebreaks.
- Four of his five most recent hard-court matches, from 6 to 27 August 2026, included a second set of at least ten games.
Martin's serve numbers come from the largest tracked sample in this match: 696 first serves across 15 hard-court matches.
That serving baseline, plus 52.7% of total points won, is the concrete reason he is a clear favourite against an opponent with three completed hard-court matches. Hance has no comparable professional hard-court sample, so the gap in serve and return numbers is the most direct comparison available. It remains one stretch of the 2026 season rather than a fixed rating, and Martin still lost 5 of those 15 matches.
- Across 15 hard-court matches from 21 July to 27 August 2026, Martin landed 696 of 1104 first serves (63%) and won 495 of 696 first-serve points (71.1%).
- He averaged 3.9 aces and 2.7 double faults per match, and saved 48 of 83 break points (57.8%).
- He won 52.7% of total points (1160 of 2201) and 54.7% of games in the same sample.
Hance's junior season peaked with an Australian Open boys' singles final, and he was one of four different American boys to reach a junior Grand Slam singles final in 2026. For this match it explains how an 18-year-old ranked No. 865 arrives in a Challenger 75 main draw two weeks after his last junior event. The distance to the professional field is concrete: his recorded wins have come outside the top 250, and his opponent here is ranked No. 322.
- Hance is listed as the 2026 Australian Open boys' singles runner-up behind Ziga Sesko.
- Four different American boys reached junior Grand Slam singles finals in 2026, with Hance named for the Australian Open.
ReportedSources checked 22 Sep 2026, 21:27 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Andres Martin

1.22fair 1.35

BetBugs 74% · Market 82%

−8.0ppshort

The ranking gap and a full hard-court sample of 15 matches point to Martin as the clearly stronger player, while Hance's hard-court evidence is only three matches.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Andres Martin

1.33fair 1.45

BetBugs 69% · Market 75.2%

−6.2ppshort

Martin's first-set record on hard is strong, while Hance has been beaten early in two of his three hard-court matches.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
The ranking gap and a full hard-court sample of 15 matches point to Martin as the clearly stronger player, while Hance's hard-court evidence is only three matches.
- Martin is ranked No. 322 against Hance's No. 865.
- Martin is 10-5 on hard in the tracked 15 matches with 52.7% of total points won and 54.7% of games won.
- Hance is 1-2 on hard in three tracked matches, with two straight-set losses.
- Martin averages 3.9 aces and saves 57.8% of the break points he faces.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAndres MartinEstimated chance74%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Martin's matches regularly run past 21.5 games, and his second sets average 10.4 games with four tiebreaks.
- Martin averaged 25.3 games per hard-court match across 15 matches.
- His recent three-set matches produced 31, 31, 27, 32 and 27 games.
- Nine of his 15 hard matches went to a deciding set.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
No first-set tiebreaks and averages below ten games in both samples point to a set finishing 6-3 or 6-4.
- Martin's first sets average 9.3 total games with no tiebreaks in 15 hard matches.
- Hance's first sets average 8.3 total games with no tiebreaks in three matches.
- Neither player has a recorded first-set tiebreak in the tracked hard-court sample.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Martin's second sets are longer and more break-heavy than his first sets, which supports going over the line.
- Martin's second sets average 10.4 total games with four tiebreaks in 15 hard matches.
- Hance's second sets average 8.7 total games with no tiebreaks in three matches.
- Four of Martin's five most recent hard matches included a second set of at least ten games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance53%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Martin's first-set record on hard is strong, while Hance has been beaten early in two of his three hard-court matches.
- Martin won set one in 10 of 15 hard-court matches, averaging 5.3 games to 3.9.
- Hance is 1-2 in first sets on hard, averaging 3.0 games to 5.3.
- Hance lost his most recent first set 1-6 to No. 297 Johannus Monday.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAndres MartinEstimated chance69%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Even with an even second-set record, Martin has taken set two in most of his recent matches and is the stronger player overall.
- Martin is 7-8 in second sets on hard across 15 matches.
- Martin won set two in four of his five most recent hard-court matches.
- Hance is 1-2 in second sets on hard, averaging 4.0 games to 4.7.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostAndres MartinEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hance's hard-court matches have all ended in straight sets and the ranking gap suggests a quicker finish.
- Hance's three tracked hard matches averaged 2.0 sets, with two 0-2 losses and one 2-0 win.
- Six of Martin's 15 hard matches were straight sets (four 2-0 wins, two 0-2 losses).
- The ranking gap of over 500 places points to a shorter contest.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance53%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of Martin's hard-court matches and all of Hance's tracked sets have finished without a tiebreak.
- Ten of Martin's 15 hard-court matches had no tiebreak.
- Martin's first sets produced no tiebreaks in 15 matches.
- Hance has played six hard-court sets without a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance67%

Keaton Hance

10W 5L

6-1 6-4#297Johannus Monday

6-4 6-2#600Naoya Honda

6-2 6-2—William Jansen

7-6(2) 2-6 7-5#388Jack Kennedy

5-3 ret.#1405Kuzey Cekirge

6-4 2-6 6-1#440Sergi Perez Contri

6-3 6-3#440Sergi Perez Contri

6-0 6-4—Carles Rojas

6-0 6-1—Jose Francisco Gonzalez Noriega

6-3 6-3—Aron Paul Samson

6-3 6-2#275Nick Hardt

6-4 6-0—Matthew Segura

7-5 6-4#876Davide Tortora

6-4 6-2#636Ryan Colby

6-4 5-7 6-1—Daniel Uta

Andres Martin

10W 5L

6-4 6-4#356Aidan Mayo

5-7 6-3 6-4#472Paulo Saraiva Dos Santos

5-7 7-6(3) 6-0#834Gijs Brouwer

2-6 6-4 6-3#184Andre Ilagan

4-6 7-6(3) 6-3#449Spencer Johnson

6-3 4-6 6-2#549Millen Hurrion

6-2 6-2#720Nicolas Arseneault

6-4 7-6(2)#501Trevor Svajda

6-1 6-1#1755Alex Kobelt

6-2 7-5#33Ugo Humbert

6-2 7-5#378Moez Echargui

6-3 4-6 6-2#115Christopher O'Connell

3-6 7-6(4) 7-6(6)#359Dhakshineswar Suresh

6-3 1-6 6-3#642Roger Pascual Ferra

4-6 6-3 7-6(6)#110Dane Sweeny

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

KHKeaton HanceHance

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Andres MartinMartinAM

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In13/15 · 15/1562.0%+1.0pp63.0%

1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/1561.2%+9.9pp71.1%

2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/1555.0%+4.3pp50.7%

Aces / Match13/15 · 15/151.1+2.83.9

Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/152.8—2.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/1543.7%+1.9pp41.8%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/1554.1%+8.6pp45.5%

Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/1562.8%+5.0pp57.8%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/1551.3%+1.4pp52.7%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

62.0%1st Serve In13/15 · 15/15+1.0pp63.0%

61.2%1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/15+9.9pp71.1%

55.0%2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/15+4.3pp50.7%

1.1Aces / Match13/15 · 15/15+2.83.9

2.8Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/15—2.7

Return · 1–0

43.7%Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/15+1.9pp41.8%

Pressure · 2–0

54.1%Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/15+8.6pp45.5%

62.8%Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/15+5.0pp57.8%

Points · 0–1

51.3%Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/15+1.4pp52.7%