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Predictions graded

Clement Tabur #160France2Matteo Martineau #276France1

Sets 7-6 · 6-7 · 6-3Mon 28 Sept 2026, 19:30 Predictions gradedFirst RoundI.hard

Predictions4–357%

Edges0–20%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageClement Tabur · 116 places

Clement Tabur

France

Reliable current profile detail beyond the supplied ranking and playing style was limited. Use structured recent-form and hard-court data as the main context.

Current ranking: #160
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Matteo Martineau

France

Martineau reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 170 on 1 July 2024. ITF lists clay and hard as his preferred surfaces.

Current ranking: #276
Peak ranking: #170 · 2024
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Sep 2026, 15:07 · Europe/Bucharest

The tension is a ranking gap pointing one way and recent results pointing the other: Tabur is No. 160 but has not won since 18 July, while Martineau sits at No. 276 with eight wins in 14 hard-court matches.

Martineau is the more likely winner, and the likelier player to take the opening set. Both are priced up — 2.75 for the match and 2.5 for the first set — while Tabur at 1.4 and 1.45 is best left alone.

Context

Martineau's week in Saint-Tropez ran to four matches in five days, two of them in qualifying, and his first-round win over Schoolkate was settled by three tiebreaks, so he arrives with substantially more recent court time than his opponent. Tabur played only his opening match there and lost it, leaving him with a lighter week and a single match since mid-September. The gap is five days old and the surface changes to indoor hard, which limits how much of that accumulated workload should carry into this match.
- Martineau won two qualifying matches at Saint-Tropez without dropping a set.
- Martineau beat Tristan Schoolkate 7-6(4) 6-7(6) 7-6(6) in the first round.
- Martineau lost to Daniel Masur in the second round .
- Tabur lost his opening match at the same event.
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 15:06 · Europe/Bucharest
Tabur arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 160) but without a win since 18 July.
The opening set has been the consistent problem: Tabur was behind after one set in each of his three hard-court matches in this window, and the two tiebreak scorelines show those sets were close rather than one-sided. He did respond in second sets, winning two of three, but that recovery never carried through to a win. For this first round it means his start matters more than his second-set record, and the warning is that the sample is only three matches.
- Tabur lost the first set in all three of his completed hard-court matches between 25 August and 22 September 2026.
- Two of those first sets finished 6-7; his first-set games average is 5.3 won to 6.7 lost.
- He won two of three second sets (5.7 games to 4.0) but lost all three matches, 1-2 twice and 0-2 once.
Martineau's recent hard-court record is 8-6, and the shape of it matters here: half his matches needed a third set and six contained a tiebreak, so his sets have generally stayed tight. His opening sets have gone 9-5 in his favour, but they have averaged only 5.3 games to 4.6, again a small margin. That suggests the first set is likely to be a contest rather than a formality, even with him arriving as the stronger recent hard-court performer.
- Martineau's 14 completed hard-court matches from 23 July to 24 September 2026 include seven that went to a deciding set.
- Six of those 14 matches featured a tiebreak, and the average match lasted 25.4 games.
- His eight wins came as five 2-0 scorelines and three 2-1 scorelines; his six defeats were four 1-2 scorelines and two 0-2 scorelines.
Tabur's standing as the higher-ranked player rests on points earned earlier in the season rather than on anything recent, with his last win dated 18 July. The five defeats since then all came against opponents ranked outside the top 200, including a qualifier at Saint-Tropez, which is the opposite of the profile his No. 160 ranking implies. Martineau, by contrast, has won at Challenger level within the past week. The ranking gap is therefore a poor guide to current level for this match.
- Tabur's last win was 1-6 7-6(5) 6-4 over Edas Butvilas on 18 July.
- He lost his Saint-Tropez opener to qualifier Murphy Cassone (No. 318).
- Every defeat in the run came against an opponent ranked outside the top 200.
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 15:06 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.75
The read
Martineau brings the deeper and more recent hard-court form, while Tabur's ranking edge sits alongside five consecutive defeats.
- Martineau is 8-6 on hard courts across 14 completed matches, with a 51.8% games-won rate.
- Tabur is 0-3 on hard courts in this sample and has lost five straight matches, the latest to a player ranked 318.
- Martineau won two qualifying matches without dropping a set at Saint-Tropez and beat No. 152 Tristan Schoolkate before losing to Masur.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMatteo MartineauEstimated chance63%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets have been tight for both, and Tabur's openers have regularly gone beyond ten games.
- Martineau's hard-court first sets average 9.9 games.
- Tabur's hard-court first sets average 12 games, with two tiebreaks in three.
- Martineau has played 6 of 14 hard-court matches with a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets on this surface have averaged just above ten games for Martineau, with Tabur close behind.
- Martineau's hard-court second sets average 10.5 games.
- Tabur's hard-court second sets average 9.7 games.
- Martineau has had 3 tiebreaks in second sets across 14 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' matches tend to run long, and Tabur's recent scorelines in particular have been high in games.
- Martineau's 14 hard-court matches average 25.4 total games.
- Tabur's three hard-court matches average 28 total games.
- Martineau's matches have gone to a deciding set in 7 of 14.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 26.5Estimated chance53%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.50
The read
Martineau starts sets well on this surface while Tabur has begun slowly, losing his opening set every time in this window.
- Martineau has won the opening set in 9 of 14 hard-court matches.
- Tabur has lost the opening set in all three of his hard-court matches in this sample.
- Martineau's hard-court first sets average 5.3 games won to 4.6 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMatteo MartineauEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Martineau's set-level record on hard courts is steadier, and Tabur's overall hard-court sets-won rate is low.
- Martineau is 8-6 in second sets on hard courts.
- Tabur is 2-1 in second sets but 0-3 in first sets on this surface.
- Martineau has won 20 of 35 sets (57.1%) on hard courts.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonMatteo MartineauEstimated chance57%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player's ace rate is high enough to clear the line comfortably, even in a longer match.
- Martineau averages 7.1 aces per hard-court match, Tabur 3.7.
- Their combined hard-court figure of about 11 is below 12.5.
- Tabur's hard-court ace rate is under 4 per match.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 12.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players give away double faults regularly on this surface, and their combined rate sits above the line.
- Martineau averages 3.6 double faults per hard-court match; Tabur averages 4.3.
- Their combined hard-court average is about 8 per match.
- Tabur has 13 double faults in his three hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance60%

Previous match context available

Clement Tabur

6W 9L

7-6(6) 4-6 6-3#318Murphy Cassone

7-6(5) 1-6 6-4#237Harold Mayot

6-4 7-5#202Braden Shick

4-6 6-4 6-4#239Henri Squire

7-5 6-3#886Orlando Luz

1-6 7-6(5) 6-4#198Edas Butvilas

6-7(9) 7-6(5) 7-5#31Arthur Rinderknech

4-6 7-5 6-4#139Jurij Rodionov

6-4 7-6(3)#271Marc-Andrea Huesler

6-3 6-4#1046Hendrik Jebens

6-1 3-6 6-4#186Diego Dedura

1-6 7-5 2-6 6-3 6-1#125Shintaro Mochizuki

5-7 7-6(4) 6-4#111Bu Yunchaokete

6-3 6-4#200Federico Agustin Gomez

1-6 7-6(10) 6-3#134Stefanos Sakellaridis

Matteo Martineau

8W 7L

6-3 5-7 6-3#406Daniel Masur

7-6(4) 6-7(6) 7-6(6)#152Tristan Schoolkate

6-3 6-1#418Justin Boulais 6-1 6-4#470Cesar Bouchelaghem

6-4 6-4#150Borna Gojo

7-6(2) 6-4#287Max Schoenhaus

6-2 3-6 7-6(4)#834Gijs Brouwer

4-6 6-3 6-2#459Emile Hudd

6-3 4-6 6-1—Billy Blaydes

7-5 7-6(1)#394Lui Maxted

6-4 7-5#897Max Dahlin

6-4 3-6 6-1#201Luka Pavlovic

6-3 5-7 7-6(4)#299Oliver Crawford

6-4 6-4#329Yanki Erel

6-3 7-6(6)#328Gonzalo Villanueva

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

CTClement TaburTabur

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Matteo MartineauMartineauMM

Matteo Martineau carries the stronger recent form — Clement Tabur's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In60.6%+7.7pp68.3%

1st Serve Won71.3%+2.6pp73.9%

2nd Serve Won55.7%+6.8pp48.9%

Aces / Match5.4+1.36.7

Double Faults / Match2.51.2 fewer3.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won36.2%+1.6pp34.6%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted35.0%+2.0pp37.0%

Break Pts Saved57.6%+6.4pp64.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won50.3%—50.5%

Serve · 2–3

60.6%1st Serve In+7.7pp68.3%

71.3%1st Serve Won+2.6pp73.9%

55.7%2nd Serve Won+6.8pp48.9%

5.4Aces / Match+1.36.7

2.5Double Faults / Match1.2 fewer3.7

Return · 1–0

36.2%Return Pts Won+1.6pp34.6%

Pressure · 0–2

35.0%Break Pts Converted+2.0pp37.0%

57.6%Break Pts Saved+6.4pp64.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.3%Total Pts Won—50.5%