FranceSaint-Tropez - FranceFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Matteo Martineau #286France1Daniel Masur #397Germany2

Sets 3-6 · 7-5 · 3-6Thu 24 Sept 2026, 10:38 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions2–625%

Edges0–20%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMatteo Martineau · 111 places

Matteo Martineau

France

Martineau reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 170 on 1 July 2024. ITF lists clay and hard as his preferred surfaces.

Current ranking: #286
Peak ranking: #170 · 2024
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Clay, Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Daniel Masur

Germany

Masur reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 176 in March 2022. ITF lists hard courts as his preferred surface; current match data lists him at No. 397.

Current ranking: #397
Peak ranking: #176 · 2022
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Sep 2026, 15:44 · Europe/Bucharest

Two qualifiers who have each played three days running meet for a quarter-final place.

Martineau, the No. 276, has the better recent scalps and is the likelier winner; Masur's 8-3 hard-court run keeps it competitive. At 1.85, Martineau to win the match and to take the first set both look worth backing, with the first set the stronger; Masur at the same price does not.

Context

Martineau has played on three consecutive days at Saint-Tropez, winning two qualifying rounds without dropping a set before beating Schoolkate, the No. 152, 7-6(4) 6-7(6) 7-6(6) . That is his best win of the week by ranking and the one match that kept him on court longest, which matters because this round of 16 is his fourth match in five days. The counterweight is his 6-2 3-6 7-6(4) loss to Gijs Brouwer, a player ranked far below him, in early September, which shows the same tight three-set pattern can fall the other way.
- Martineau beat Tristan Schoolkate (No. 152) 7-6(4) 6-7(6) 7-6(6) to reach the round of 16 at Saint-Tropez
- Martineau came through qualifying with a 6-1 6-4 win over Cesar Bouchelaghem and a 6-3 6-1 win over Justin Boulais
- The French player went through the qualifying draw without losing a set
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 15:43 · Europe/Bucharest
Masur, 31 and ranked No. 406, has qualified for the sixth time this year and turned it into three wins in three days at Saint-Tropez, the last a 6-1 4-6 6-4 first-round win over Echargui. Repeated qualifying means he arrives in the round of 16 with more competitive match time behind him than a direct entrant would have, although the schedule itself is not an edge here because his opponent has also played on three consecutive days. His September record against higher-ranked players is split: he beat Jurij Rodionov, the No. 139, in three sets and lost to Mark Lajal, the No. 143, in straight sets.
- Masur beat Maxime Janvier 6-2 7-6(4) to qualify for the main draw, in what was his sixth qualifying draw of 2026
- Masur then beat Moez Echargui (No. 378) 6-1 4-6 6-4 to reach the round of 16
- At 31 he is ranked No. 406 for this event
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 15:43 · Europe/Bucharest
Martineau, the No. 276 with a one-handed backhand, has made a habit of starting recent hard-court matches on the front foot.
Martineau's first-set record is the strongest single pattern in either player's recent file, and it is the basis for him being favoured to take the opening set here. The counterweight is Masur, who has won 6 of his 11 first sets on hard since 31 August, so a quick Martineau start is the likelier result rather than a certainty.
- Martineau won the first set in 10 of 14 completed hard-court matches tracked from 21 July to 22 September 2026
- His first sets averaged 5.5 games won and 4.4 lost, for 9.9 games in total
- Two of those 14 matches featured a first-set tiebreak
The Saint-Tropez Open is a Challenger 125 played outdoors on hard court, and the winner of this round-of-16 tie moves into the quarter-finals. The entry list is headed by David Goffin and Grigor Dimitrov, which sets the standard of the draw both players are working through. This frames how far a win here takes the victor rather than identifying a condition that changes either player's physical state, so it is context rather than a shift in the sporting assessment.
- The Saint-Tropez Open is an ATP Challenger 125 event staged on outdoor hard court
- This match is a round-of-16 tie, with the winner advancing to the quarter-finals
- The entry list is headed by David Goffin and Grigor Dimitrov
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 15:43 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Martineau sits 130 places higher and has beaten the stronger recent opposition, including a top-160 win this week.
- Martineau is 9-5 on hard in his last 14 completed matches; Masur is 8-3 in 11
- Martineau beat No. 152 Tristan Schoolkate in the first round; Masur's wins came against opponents ranked 378 or lower
- Both lost their most recent meeting with Borna Gojo (No. 150), Martineau in straight sets, Masur in straight sets
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMatteo MartineauEstimated chance57%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been the longer sets for both players, averaging above ten games.
- Martineau's second sets average 10.3 games; Masur's average 10.8
- Masur has played three second-set tiebreaks in 11 hard-court matches
- Both hold roughly 52% of second-serve points on hard
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' opening sets average around ten games, just above the line.
- Martineau's first sets average 9.9 games; Masur's average 10.2
- Martineau's set1 tiebreaks: 2 in 14 matches; Masur's: 3 in 11
- Both men win 5.5 games on average in the first set
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The majority of both players' recent hard-court matches ended in two sets, pulling total games below the line.
- Martineau's average hard-court match is 24.6 games; Masur's is 25.8
- Eight of Martineau's 14 and six of Masur's 11 hard-court matches finished in two sets
- Both players win 53.2% of games on hard, indicating evenly matched, not extended, sets
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 25.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Martineau has started matches strongly, taking the opening set in roughly seven of ten recent hard-court matches.
- Martineau has won the first set in 10 of 14 hard-court matches
- Masur has won the first set in 6 of 11 hard-court matches
- Martineau's set1 games average is 5.5 won against 4.4 lost
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMatteo MartineauEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Martineau holds the better second-set record and the stronger overall profile.
- Martineau has won the second set in 8 of 14 hard-court matches
- Masur has won the second set in 5 of 11 hard-court matches
- Martineau's overall match-win edge is 9-5 against Masur's 8-3 on hard
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonMatteo MartineauEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
More than half of the combined recent matches finished in straight sets.
- Martineau's setEvidence shows 8 two-set and 6 three-set matches
- Masur's shows 6 two-set and 5 three-set matches
- Martineau won his qualifying matches 6-1 6-4 and 6-3 6-1
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance54%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' hard-court double-fault rates add up to just under the line.
- Martineau averages 3.4 double faults per hard-court match; Masur 2.9
- Combined average of about 6.3 is below 6.5
- Masur's hard-court double-fault rate is 2.9 per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' ace rates near seven per match put the combined total close to the line.
- Martineau averages 7.0 aces per hard-court match; Masur averages 7.0
- Combined per-match average is about 14
- Martineau hit 99 aces in 15 matches overall
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 13.5Estimated chance54%

Previous match context available

Matteo Martineau

9W 6L

7-6(4) 6-7(6) 7-6(6)#152Tristan Schoolkate

6-3 6-1#418Justin Boulais 6-1 6-4#470Cesar Bouchelaghem

6-4 6-4#150Borna Gojo

7-6(2) 6-4#287Max Schoenhaus

6-2 3-6 7-6(4)#834Gijs Brouwer

4-6 6-3 6-2#459Emile Hudd

6-3 4-6 6-1—Billy Blaydes

7-5 7-6(1)#394Lui Maxted

6-4 7-5#897Max Dahlin

6-4 3-6 6-1#201Luka Pavlovic

6-3 5-7 7-6(4)#299Oliver Crawford

6-4 6-4#329Yanki Erel

6-3 7-6(6)#328Gonzalo Villanueva

6-4 6-3#434Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

Daniel Masur

10W 5L

6-1 4-6 6-4#378Moez Echargui

6-2 7-6(4)#620Maxime Janvier 6-2 3-6 6-4#545Leonardo Rossi

6-4 7-6(6)#150Borna Gojo

7-6(3) 4-6 7-6(10)#583Daniel De Jonge

6-4 6-4#875Adrien Gobat

7-6(2) 7-5#143Mark Lajal

2-6 6-4 7-6(3)#320Ugo Blanchet

5-7 6-3 6-1#139Jurij Rodionov

6-4 6-4#374Dan Added

7-6(4) 7-6(5)#538Luca Potenza

7-6(3) 6-1#220Facundo Mena

6-7(0) 6-4 6-4#287Max Schoenhaus

6-4 6-4#352Petr Brunclik

6-7(5) 6-3 6-3#353Arthur Nagel

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MMMatteo MartineauMartineau

Last 15

2–4

9 core stats · 3 even

Daniel MasurMasurDM

Daniel Masur carries the stronger recent form — Matteo Martineau's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1569.8%+4.6pp65.2%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1573.5%—73.3%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1549.0%+1.3pp50.3%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/156.6—6.5

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/153.50.4 fewer3.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1535.5%+2.1pp37.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1538.0%+1.0pp39.0%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1568.1%+7.1pp61.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1551.0%—50.9%

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

69.8%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+4.6pp65.2%

73.5%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15—73.3%

49.0%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+1.3pp50.3%

6.6Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15—6.5

3.5Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/150.4 fewer3.1

Return · 0–1

35.5%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+2.1pp37.6%

Pressure · 1–1

38.0%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+1.0pp39.0%

68.1%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+7.1pp61.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.0%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15—50.9%