ChinaATP ChengduFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Martin Damm #94United States1Hubert Hurkacz #72Poland2

Sets 6-4 · 3-6 · 4-6Sat 26 Sept 2026, 06:56 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions3–827%

Edges0–40%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageHubert Hurkacz · 22 places

Martin Damm

United States

Damm was born on 30 September 2003 and is a 203 cm left-hander. Structured data supplied for this match lists him at No. 94.

Current ranking: #94
Peak ranking: #94
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 203 cm

Hubert Hurkacz

Poland

Reached career-high No. 6 in August 2024 and lists hard as his preferred surface. He entered Montreal using a protected ranking following knee surgery and his 2026 comeback.

Current ranking: #72
Peak ranking: #6 · 2024
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Sep 2026, 03:22 · Europe/Bucharest

Hurkacz is the higher-ranked, more experienced hard-court player; Damm has a top-10 win this summer, won their only meeting in straight sets, and serves well enough to keep it close.

Hurkacz still looks the likelier winner in Chengdu. Two reviewed prices are worth taking: Damm to win at 3.2 and Damm with a half-game start at 2.9. The other quoted prices ask too much — 1.35 for Hurkacz to win, 1.36 for him to give half a game, 1.44 for the first set and 1.5 for under 2.5 sets.

Context

The second-set tiebreak was effectively the whole match: Hurkacz faced five set points before winning it 12-10, so his Chengdu opener was far closer than a straight-sets scoreline suggests. In this matchup his expected edge comes from the serve and from his greater experience at the top of the game, and a No. 109 opponent forcing that much pressure on his first competitive outing in China is a relevant caution. The balancing point is that he did close the tiebreak out and won in straight sets, and his 5-0 record against Shevchenko shows he has handled this opponent consistently regardless of how tight the sets become.
- Hurkacz trailed by five set points in the second-set tiebreak
- He won the tiebreak 12-10 to complete a 6-3 7-6(10) win
- His tour-level record against Shevchenko is now 5-0
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Sep 2026, 03:19 · Europe/Bucharest
Medvedev was the top seed in Winston-Salem and ranked No. 6 when Damm beat him in straight sets, which is the strongest item on Damm's record for holding his level against elite opposition on a hard court. It matters for this fixture because Hurkacz arrives as the higher-ranked and more decorated player, and Damm's ability to serve and strike through a top-10 opponent in a best-of-three format is the basis on which this match can stay competitive. The limitation is that he lost his next match at the same event, so the win stands as a single peak rather than the start of a sustained run.
- Medvedev, then ranked No. 6, was the top seed at Winston-Salem and lost 7-5 6-3
- Damm, then 22, had not previously beaten a top-10 opponent at tour level
- Damm lost his next match at the same event, to Fabian Marozsan
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Sep 2026, 03:19 · Europe/Bucharest
The venue sits at roughly 500 m in a city with a long-standing reputation for hot, humid late-September weather, so the ball travels more quickly than at sea level and the conditions favour big serving and short points. Damm, at 203 cm, and Hurkacz, at 196 cm, are among the tallest players in the draw, which makes serve-dominated sets the likeliest shape of this match rather than extended baseline exchanges. Rain is forecast on most days of the week and none of the three match courts can be covered, so interruptions or a shift to a cooler slot are realistic possibilities that would change how the ball behaves.
- The venue sits about 500 m above sea level, which adds pace to the ball
- Forecast highs for the week are 27-29°C with high humidity and 50-70% rain probability
- Centre Court, Court 1 and Court 2 all lack a retractable roof
- The Chengdu Open is an ATP 250 event running 23-29 September, the eighth edition since 2016
ReportedSources checked 25 Sep 2026, 03:19 · Europe/Bucharest
Damm, the lower-ranked player here, is the one holding the head-to-head result.
Their one completed match, on 3 February 2026, went Damm's way in straight sets, with the first set decided by a tiebreak. One match is a small base for reading a rematch, and Hurkacz's hard-court form since then has been the stronger of the two. It does mean Hurkacz cannot treat this as a routine second round against a player ranked 60 places below him.
- Damm won the only recorded meeting 7-6(5) 6-4 on 3 February 2026
- The opening set of that match was decided by a tiebreak
- No other completed meeting between the two appears in the record

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Hubert Hurkacz

1.44fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 69.4%

−9.4ppshort

Hurkacz has started matches more strongly than Damm over the same surface and format.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Hurkacz has the stronger recent hard-court record and more tour-level wins, while Damm's heavy left-handed serve should keep the scoreline competitive.
- Hurkacz is 9-3 on hard in his current-surface sample and 11-3 across his last 14 matches
- Damm is 6-5 on hard over 11 matches, averaging 11.5 aces and 76.5% first-serve points won
- Hurkacz saved five set points to beat Shevchenko 6-3 7-6(10) in Chengdu
- Damm won the only previous meeting 7-6(5) 6-4 in February 2026
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHubert HurkaczEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Hurkacz winning the match and finishing ahead on games are nearly the same outcome, so this follows the match-winner view.
- Hurkacz's recent hard-court game margins: +4, -4, +10 (best-of-five), +7, +5, +5
- Damm's recent hard-court game margins: +7, -2, -2, +5, +3, -3
- The match winner almost always finishes with more games than the loser
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonHubert Hurkacz -0.5Estimated chance61%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have run longer than first sets for both players, with tiebreaks common in this sample.
- Set-2 games average 10.5 (Damm) and 10.7 (Hurkacz)
- Damm had 3 and Hurkacz 4 set-2 tiebreaks in their 10-match hard-court samples
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Damm has stayed within two games in several recent outings, and his serve reduces the chance of a wide losing margin.
- Damm's recent hard-court game margins: +7, -2, -2, +5, +3, -3
- Damm's losses at Winston-Salem and the US Open came by 2 and 2 games
- Hurkacz's best-of-three hard-court margins this stretch are +4, -4, +7, +5, +5
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostMartin Damm +2.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Most of their recent matches finished short of three sets, which keeps the game count just under this line.
- Hurkacz's 10 hard-court best-of-three matches average 25.0 total games; Damm's average 23.1
- About 56% of their combined recent hard-court matches ended in straight sets
- The only previous meeting totalled 23 games
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 24.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Opening sets have generally ended with a break rather than running long.
- Set-1 games average 9.4 (Damm) and 9.5 (Hurkacz)
- No set-1 tiebreaks in either 10-match hard-court sample
- Hurkacz's set-1 games lost average is 3.8
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Hurkacz has started matches more strongly than Damm over the same surface and format.
- Hurkacz has won the opening set in 8 of 10 hard-court best-of-three matches
- Damm has won the opening set in 6 of 10
- Hurkacz's set-1 games: 5.7 won, 3.8 lost; Damm's: 5.3 won, 4.1 lost
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostHubert HurkaczEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second-set records are level, so Hurkacz's overall superiority carries over only partially into a single set.
- Both players have won 7 of their last 10 second sets on hard courts in this format
- Set-2 games: Hurkacz 5.9 won / 4.8 lost; Damm 5.8 / 4.7
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonHubert HurkaczEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Slightly more than half of their recent hard-court matches in this format finished without a deciding set.
- Damm's 10 hard-court best-of-three matches produced 6 straight-sets results
- Hurkacz's produced 5 straight-sets results
- Hurkacz has won five of his eight recent hard-court wins in straight sets
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance56%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Two strong servers holding comfortably makes at least one tiebreak slightly more likely than not.
- Hurkacz had a tiebreak in 4 of his 10 hard-court best-of-three matches; Damm in 4 of 10
- Hurkacz's Chengdu opener included a second-set tiebreak he won 12-10
- Damm averages 11.5 aces per hard-court match and Hurkacz is a heavy server
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance53%

Prediction history

Hubert Hurkacz: 3/7 recent winner projections matched

3 of 7 comparable winner projections favouring Hubert Hurkacz matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Hubert Hurkacz7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

5 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#96Hubert Hurkacz2-3#74Jan-Lennard Struff

BetBugsHubert Hurkacz to win·55%

Missed

5 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#96Hubert Hurkacz2-3#74Jan-Lennard Struff

Hubert Hurkacz to win

55%probability

Jan-Lennard Struff won

Missed

1 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#96Hubert Hurkacz3-0#110Sebastian Ofner

BetBugsHubert Hurkacz to win·72%

Matched

1 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#96Hubert Hurkacz3-0#110Sebastian Ofner

Hubert Hurkacz to win

72%probability

Hubert Hurkacz won

Matched

17 Jun·ATP Halle

#103Hubert Hurkacz1-2#81Daniel Altmaier

BetBugsHubert Hurkacz to win·72%

Missed

17 Jun 2026

ATP Halle

#103Hubert Hurkacz1-2#81Daniel Altmaier

Hubert Hurkacz to win

72%probability

Daniel Altmaier won

Missed

9 Jun·ATP 's-Hertogenbosch

#99Hubert Hurkacz1-2#65Marton Fucsovics

BetBugsHubert Hurkacz to win·62%

Missed

9 Jun 2026

ATP 's-Hertogenbosch

#99Hubert Hurkacz1-2#65Marton Fucsovics

Hubert Hurkacz to win

62%probability

Marton Fucsovics won

Missed

6 May·ATP Rome

#53Hubert Hurkacz1-2#59Yannick Hanfmann

BetBugsHubert Hurkacz to win·62%

Missed

6 May 2026

ATP Rome

#53Hubert Hurkacz1-2#59Yannick Hanfmann

Hubert Hurkacz to win

62%probability

Yannick Hanfmann won

Missed

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W7-6(5) 6-4Martin Damm#106vHubert Hurkacz#46Feb 3, 2026

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Martin Damm

8W 7L

6-1 6-4#125Shintaro Mochizuki

6-4 4-6 3-6 6-3 6-4#8Frances Tiafoe

2-6 6-3 6-3#59Fabian Marozsan

7-5 6-3#6Daniil Medvedev

6-4 7-6(2)#250Abedallah Shelbayh

6-4 7-6(4)#134Stefanos Sakellaridis

6-4 6-4#44Stefanos Tsitsipas

6-3 7-6(3)#116Henrique Rocha

6-4 4-6 6-4#4Ben Shelton

4-6 7-5 7-6(4)#250Abedallah Shelbayh

6-2 6-0#227Kimmer Coppejans

6-4 7-6(1) 6-3#31Arthur Rinderknech

7-6(5) 6-7(5) 7-6(2) 7-6(5)#87Marco Trungelliti

6-4 3-6 6-3#77Jenson Brooksby

6-3 7-6(2)#81Zachary Svajda

Hubert Hurkacz

11W 4L

6-3 7-6(10)#109Alexander Shevchenko

6-3 5-7 7-6(3) 7-5#4Ben Shelton

6-4 4-6 6-1 6-1#100Damir Dzumhur

4-6 6-0 6-3#51Sebastian Baez

6-3 6-4#378Moez Echargui

6-4 6-3#102Roman Safiullin

6-2 4-6 6-4#116Henrique Rocha

6-4 6-7(3) 6-3#18Tommy Paul

6-2 6-4#93Sho Shimabukuro

3-6 7-6(4) 7-5#40Botic Van De Zandschulp

6-4 7-6(4)#32Alejandro Tabilo

7-5 4-6 6-2#85Marcos Giron

3-6 6-7(5) 7-6(2) 7-5 4-2 ret.#63Jan-Lennard Struff

4-6 7-6(5) 7-5 6-2#18Tommy Paul

7-6(8) 6-4 6-4#121Sebastian Ofner

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MDMartin DammDamm

Last 15

1–8

9 core stats · 0 even

Hubert HurkaczHurkaczHH

Hubert Hurkacz carries the stronger recent form — Martin Damm's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In62.4%+2.1pp64.5%

1st Serve Won76.6%+2.3pp78.9%

2nd Serve Won51.6%+3.1pp48.5%

Aces / Match12.3+3.015.3

Double Faults / Match4.20.3 fewer3.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won33.5%+3.4pp36.9%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted37.2%+9.0pp46.2%

Break Pts Saved66.7%+5.3pp72.0%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.7%+1.8pp52.5%

Serve · 1–4

62.4%1st Serve In+2.1pp64.5%

76.6%1st Serve Won+2.3pp78.9%

51.6%2nd Serve Won+3.1pp48.5%

12.3Aces / Match+3.015.3

4.2Double Faults / Match0.3 fewer3.9

Return · 0–1

33.5%Return Pts Won+3.4pp36.9%

Pressure · 0–2

37.2%Break Pts Converted+9.0pp46.2%

66.7%Break Pts Saved+5.3pp72.0%

Points · 0–1

50.7%Total Pts Won+1.8pp52.5%

Martin Damm

Hubert Hurkacz

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Martin Damm +0.5

Martin Damm

Hubert Hurkacz

Under 2.5

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 5 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Martin Damm

Hubert Hurkacz

Stat Battle