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Predictions graded

Anna Bondar #69Hungary1Kimberly Birrell #60Australia2

Sets 5-7 · 6-2 · 1-6Sat 26 Sept 2026, 08:00 Predictions gradedSemi-FinalHard

Predictions4–640%

Edges2–722%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageKimberly Birrell · 9 places

Anna Bondar

Hungary

Currently ranked No. 69 in singles, right-handed and listed at 175 cm. Her recorded recent matches are almost entirely on hard courts, and the last three in that sample were won.

Current ranking: #69
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Kimberly Birrell

Australia

Currently ranked No. 60 in singles, right-handed and listed at 170 cm, and working with coach Nicole Pratt. Her recorded recent results include wins on both hard and grass courts.

Current ranking: #60
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Sep 2026, 10:46 · Europe/Bucharest

Both players reach the Seoul semi-final on three-match winning runs, and the opening set is where this one tilts: Bondar has taken 8 of 11 first sets on hard courts, Birrell only 2 of 9.

Bondar to win at 2.1, Bondar to take the first set at 2.3, Bondar +2.5 games at 1.65 and over 2.5 sets at 2.2 all hold up; Birrell at 1.65 to win the match does not.

Context

That match is more than three years old, and both players' ranking and hard-court form have changed considerably since.
The 2023 result is the only direct evidence between the pair, and the tiebreak opening set shows the first set was tight even in a straight-sets win. It is thin backing for Birrell here, because Bondar's current hard-court numbers are the better of the two.
- Kimberly Birrell beat Anna Bondar 7-6(8) 6-1 on 20 February 2023, the only meeting in the record.
- The opening set went to a tiebreak before Birrell took the second set 6-1.
Birrell has been a slow starter on hard courts this season, yet she has still won her last three matches, so the pattern has not stopped her winning.
Seven first-set losses in nine hard-court matches, with four of those opening sets going to tiebreaks, means Birrell has regularly been behind early. Bondar's 8-3 first-set record on the same surface makes the opening set the likeliest place for this match to tilt away from Birrell.
- Birrell lost 7 of 9 first sets across hard-court matches tracked from 28 July to 26 September 2026.
- Her opening sets averaged 10.7 total games, with four first-set tiebreaks in those nine matches.
- She has won 5 of 9 second sets on the same sample, averaging 9.4 games in them.
Bondar has started well but has often been pulled into long matches, winning 8 of 11 first sets and only 4 of 11 second sets.
Eleven hard-court matches from 3 August to 26 September 2026 averaging 2.55 sets and 24.9 games point to a match that is more likely than not to stretch. That longer route also gives Birrell a foothold, since Bondar has surrendered the second set more often than she has won it.
- Bondar's 11 hard-court matches from 3 August to 26 September 2026 averaged 2.55 sets and 24.9 total games.
- Six of those matches went to a deciding set; the scorelines include four 2-1 wins and three 2-0 wins.
- She won 8 of 11 first sets but only 4 of 11 second sets on the same sample.
Her first serve lands 60.8% of the time and wins 62.8% of points, so the damage is concentrated on the second ball.
A 6.5 double-fault average over 15 matches, paired with only 40.6% of second-serve points won, means Birrell's service games can extend and offer return chances. It is the softest part of her game in this matchup, and long games on her serve are a realistic route for her opponent.
- Birrell averaged 6.5 double faults per match across 15 tracked matches, 98 in total.
- She won 40.6% of second-serve points and 62.8% of first-serve points in that sample.
- Her first serve landed 60.8% of the time across the same 15 matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 8

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Bondar has the stronger current hard-court record and better second-serve points won, giving her the clearer path to the final.
- Bondar is 7-4 on hard courts this season; Birrell is 4-5.
- Bondar has won 57.1% of hard-court sets; Birrell has won 42.9%.
- Bondar has won 51.6% of total points on hard courts; Birrell 48.3%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAnna BondarEstimated chance60%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Bondar rarely loses by more than two games in completed matches, so a small cushion is valuable.
- Bondar's recent hard-court game margins: +1, +2, +4, -1, +6, -5.
- She covered +2.5 in five of six completed matches.
- Bondar's only heavy margin loss was 7-12 to Bucsa.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostAnna Bondar +2.5Estimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have played several long opening sets, and Birrell's first sets often go to tiebreaks.
- Bondar's first sets average 9.5 total games.
- Birrell's first sets average 10.7 total games.
- Birrell has played four first-set tiebreaks in nine hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Both players have been involved in several long sets, and their recent matches often exceed 24 games.
- Bondar's last six matches averaged 26.2 total games.
- Birrell's last six matches averaged 24.8 total games.
- Bondar's hard-court matches average 24.9 total games; Birrell's average 23.4.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 24.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Second sets have tended to be tight, with Bondar involved in two tiebreaks and Birrell in one.
- Bondar's second sets average 10.1 total games.
- Birrell's second sets average 9.4 total games.
- Bondar has played two second-set tiebreaks in 11 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Bondar starts matches much more strongly on hard courts, while Birrell has often dropped the opening set.
- Bondar has won 8 of 11 first sets on hard courts.
- Birrell has lost 7 of 9 first sets on hard courts.
- Bondar's first-set games won average is 5.27; Birrell's is 4.44.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAnna BondarEstimated chance69%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Bondar has needed three sets in three straight wins, and Birrell's sets often split, pointing to a tight match.
- Bondar's hard-court matches average 2.55 sets; six of her 11 went to a deciding set.
- Bondar's last three wins were all three-set victories.
- Birrell's hard-court matches average 2.33 sets.
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Birrell is more reliable in the second set, often extending matches after dropping the first.
- Birrell has won 5 of 9 second sets on hard courts.
- Bondar has won only 4 of 11 second sets on hard courts.
- Birrell's second-set games won average is 4.89.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostKimberly BirrellEstimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Birrell's high double-fault rate and Bondar's moderate rate make over 10.5 the more likely outcome.
- Bondar averages 4.8 double faults per match on hard courts.
- Birrell averages 7.7 double faults per match on hard courts.
- Their combined hard-court double-fault average is 12.5 per match.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 10.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Despite Birrell's tiebreak frequency, Bondar often avoids them, and straight-set margins can prevent a tiebreak.
- Bondar's hard-court matches feature a tiebreak 27% of the time.
- Birrell's hard-court matches feature a tiebreak 56% of the time.
- Bondar has played three tiebreak matches in 11.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Their combined ace average is below 5.5, and Birrell's serve produces few free points.
- Bondar averages 3.4 aces per match on hard courts.
- Birrell averages 1.9 aces per match on hard courts.
- Their combined hard-court ace average is 5.3 per match.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance54%

Prediction history

Anna Bondar: 8/9 recent winner projections matched

8 of 9 comparable winner projections favouring Anna Bondar matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Anna Bondar9 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

24 Jul·WTA Hamburg

#97Anna Bondar2-0#117Alina Charaeva

BetBugsAnna Bondar to win·58%

Matched

24 Jul 2026

WTA Hamburg

#97Anna Bondar2-0#117Alina Charaeva

Anna Bondar to win

58%probability

Anna Bondar won

Matched

22 Jul·WTA Hamburg

#97Anna Bondar2-1#144Noma Noha Akugue

BetBugsAnna Bondar to win·58%

Matched

22 Jul 2026

WTA Hamburg

#97Anna Bondar2-1#144Noma Noha Akugue

Anna Bondar to win

58%probability

Anna Bondar won

Matched

20 Jul·WTA Hamburg

#73Anna Bondar2-0#108Moyuka Uchijima

BetBugsAnna Bondar to win·62%

Matched

20 Jul 2026

WTA Hamburg

#73Anna Bondar2-0#108Moyuka Uchijima

Anna Bondar to win

62%probability

Anna Bondar won

Matched

15 Jul·WTA Iasi

#73Anna Bondar1-2#148Tamara Zidansek

BetBugsAnna Bondar to win·65%

Missed

15 Jul 2026

WTA Iasi

#73Anna Bondar1-2#148Tamara Zidansek

Anna Bondar to win

65%probability

Tamara Zidansek won

Missed

13 Jun·WTA Nottingham

#99Emiliana Arango0-2#75Anna Bondar

BetBugsAnna Bondar to win·62%

Matched

13 Jun 2026

WTA Nottingham

#99Emiliana Arango0-2#75Anna Bondar

Anna Bondar to win

62%probability

Anna Bondar won

Matched

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L7-6(8) 6-1Anna Bondar#69vKimberly Birrell#60Feb 20, 2023

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Anna Bondar

10W 5L

6-4 1-6 6-2#66Elena Gabriela Ruse 6-4 6-7(6) 7-6(5)#121Alina Charaeva 2-6 6-3 6-1#92Renata Zarazua

5-7 6-4 7-6(5)#22Madison Keys

6-3 6-3#182Lucie Havlickova

6-4 6-3#35Cristina Bucsa

6-3 4-6 6-1#304En Shuo Liang

6-3 6-3#156Elsa Jacquemot

6-3 7-6(5)#93Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

3-6 6-4 6-4#19Elise Mertens

6-4 7-5#48Anhelina Kalinina

6-3 6-3#51Tamara Korpatsch

7-6(3) 4-6 7-6(2)#148Elina Avanesyan

6-1 7-6(3)#121Alina Charaeva

6-1 3-6 7-5#128Noma Akugue Noha

Kimberly Birrell

8W 7L

2-6 6-2 7-5#77Katie Volynets 7-5 6-3#175Yexin Ma 7-6(2) 6-4#140Tamara Zidansek

6-1 2-6 6-3#27Ekaterina Alexandrova

3-6 7-6(4) 6-3#75Petra Marcinko

7-6(2) 6-3#85Darja Vidmanova

6-2 6-2#76Kamilla Rakhimova

7-6(7) 6-4#65Viktorija Golubic

7-6(2) 6-4#175Yexin Ma

6-3 6-4#16Sorana Cirstea

6-3 0-6 6-2#81Alina Korneeva

6-1 6-4#75Petra Marcinko

6-3 7-6(6)#44Barbora Krejcikova

7-5 6-0#36Peyton Stearns

7-6(6) 6-4#598Indianna Spink

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ABAnna BondarBondar

Last 15

7–1

9 core stats · 1 even

Kimberly BirrellBirrellKB

Anna Bondar carries the stronger recent form — Kimberly Birrell's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In57.3%+3.5pp60.8%

1st Serve Won64.0%+1.2pp62.8%

2nd Serve Won49.6%+9.0pp40.6%

Aces / Match2.9+0.52.4

Double Faults / Match3.92.6 fewer6.5

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won44.5%—44.1%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted49.3%+1.2pp48.1%

Break Pts Saved56.6%+4.7pp51.9%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.4%+2.3pp49.1%

Serve · 4–1

57.3%1st Serve In+3.5pp60.8%

64.0%1st Serve Won+1.2pp62.8%

49.6%2nd Serve Won+9.0pp40.6%

2.9Aces / Match+0.52.4

3.9Double Faults / Match2.6 fewer6.5

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

44.5%Return Pts Won—44.1%

Pressure · 2–0

49.3%Break Pts Converted+1.2pp48.1%

56.6%Break Pts Saved+4.7pp51.9%

Points · 1–0

51.4%Total Pts Won+2.3pp49.1%

Anna Bondar #69Hungary1Kimberly Birrell #60Australia2

Player Profiles

Anna Bondar

Kimberly Birrell

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Anna Bondar +2.5

Anna Bondar

Anna Bondar

Over 2.5

Over 24.5

Over 9.5

Under 9.5

Anna Bondar 2-1

Kimberly Birrell

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Anna Bondar: 8/9 recent winner projections matched

Head-to-Head

Anna Bondar

Kimberly Birrell

Stat Battle