GermanyWTA HamburgFinished

Predictions graded

Anna Bondar #97Hungary2Alina Charaeva #117Armenia0

Sets 6-1 · 7-6Fri 24 Jul 2026, 09:00 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalClay

Predictions3–538%

Edges1–420%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAnna Bondar · 20 places

Anna Bondar

Hungary

Reached the 2025 Hamburg tour-level final and won the 2024 Hamburg WTA 125. Her official WTA record page shows many of her stronger recent results on clay.

Current ranking: #97
Peak ranking: #50
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Alina Charaeva

Armenia

Her current WTA page lists No. 117 as both current ranking and career high. She won the Midland WTA 125 in 2026 and has made her first WTA quarterfinal in Hamburg this week.

Current ranking: #117
Peak ranking: #117
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Jul 2026, 22:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Bondar's Hamburg clay pedigree and experience give her a slight edge over Charaeva, who arrives with momentum but a thin clay record.

Expect a tight, three-set battle with over 21.5 total games and Charaeva covering a +3.5 game handicap offering the best betting value.

Context

Bondar's official WTA bio lists a 2025 Hamburg tour-level final and the 2024 Hamburg WTA 125 title.
- She has a 50% win rate on clay in her last 10 matches (5-5), but her career clay win percentage is 72.6% (339 wins).
- This week she beat Moyuka Uchijima in straight sets and Noha Akugue in three sets.
Charaeva beat Sara Sorribes Tormo 3-6 7-5 6-1 after saving three match points.
- She then beat Sinja Kraus 5-7 7-5 7-5 in 2 hours and 57 minutes.
- Her last 15 matches average 112.7 minutes, but her clay matches this week have been longer.
Charaeva's last 15 overall: 5.2 double faults per match (78 in 15 matches).
- On clay in her last 4 matches: 5.3 double faults per match (21 in 4 matches).
- Bondar converts 38.8% of break points in her last 15 matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bondar's extensive clay pedigree and proven comfort at this venue give her a slight edge over Charaeva, whose recent clay form is promising but based on a very small sample.
- Bondar has a 50% win rate on clay in her last 10 matches (5-5), but her overall last-15 record is 40% (6-9) due to a poor grass swing.
- Charaeva's clay last-15 sample is only 4 matches (3-1, 75% win rate), but the small sample reduces confidence.
- Bondar's career clay win percentage is 72.6% (339 wins), significantly higher than Charaeva's 58.8% (94 wins).
- Bondar has a strong tournament history in Hamburg, including a 2025 final and 2024 WTA 125 title, indicating surface comfort.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAnna BondarEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.95
The read
The high average game counts in both players' recent matches, especially on clay, strongly support a total exceeding 21.5 games.
- Bondar's last 15 matches average 25.3 total games per match (380 games / 15 matches).
- Charaeva's last 15 matches average 23.3 total games per match (349 games / 15 matches).
- On clay, Bondar's last 10 matches average 25.2 games, and Charaeva's last 4 clay matches average 23.8 games.
- Both players' recent matches have frequently exceeded 21.5 games: Bondar in 11 of her last 15, Charaeva in 9 of her last 15.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Charaeva's strong recent game differential and Bondar's tendency for close matches suggest Charaeva will keep the match within 3.5 games, even if she loses.
- Bondar's last 15 matches have an average game differential of -0.4 per match (184 won, 190 lost).
- Charaeva's last 15 matches have an average game differential of +3.1 per match (196 won, 153 lost).
- On clay, Bondar's last 10 matches have an average game differential of 0.0 (126 won, 126 lost), while Charaeva's last 4 clay matches have a +3.0 differential (53 won, 42 lost).
- Charaeva has covered a +3.5 game handicap in 13 of her last 15 matches overall.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostAlina Charaeva +3.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Both players tend to start matches with competitive, extended first sets, making over 9.5 games a likely outcome.
- Bondar's last 15 first sets average 10.1 games, with 11 of 15 first sets having 10 or more games.
- Charaeva's last 15 first sets average 9.7 games, with 9 of 15 first sets having 10 or more games.
- On clay, Bondar's last 10 first sets average 10.4 games, and Charaeva's last 4 clay first sets average 10.5 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Second sets in their recent matches often remain tight, especially on clay, supporting over 9.5 games.
- Bondar's last 15 second sets average 9.9 games, with 10 of 15 second sets having 10 or more games.
- Charaeva's last 15 second sets average 9.3 games, with 8 of 15 second sets having 10 or more games.
- On clay, Bondar's last 10 second sets average 10.1 games, and Charaeva's last 4 clay second sets average 9.5 games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The high frequency of three-set matches in both players' recent records suggests a strong chance this match goes the distance.
- Bondar's last 15 matches: 7 three-setters (47%).
- Charaeva's last 15 matches: 8 three-setters (53%).
- On clay, Bondar's last 10 matches: 4 three-setters (40%); Charaeva's last 4 clay matches: 2 three-setters (50%).
- Both players have a history of close matches against similar-level opponents.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Charaeva's persistently high double fault rate, even on clay, makes over 7.5 double faults likely, especially if the match extends to three sets.
- Bondar averages 2.3 double faults per match in her last 15, but only 1.5 on clay in her last 10.
- Charaeva averages 5.2 double faults per match in her last 15, and 5.3 on clay in her last 4.
- Combined, their recent overall double fault averages sum to 7.5, and on clay it's 6.8, but Charaeva's high rate is consistent.
- Charaeva has hit 5+ double faults in 9 of her last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 7.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of their recent matches and the likelihood of close sets make a tiebreak a reasonable expectation.
- Bondar has played a tiebreak in 5 of her last 15 matches (33%), and in 3 of her last 10 on clay (30%).
- Charaeva has played a tiebreak in 4 of her last 15 matches (27%), and in 1 of her last 4 on clay (25%).
- Bondar's career tiebreak win percentage is 54%, Charaeva's is 49%.
- Both players have been involved in tight sets recently, with multiple 7-5 and 7-6 scorelines.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance55%

Anna Bondar

6W 9L

6-1 3-6 7-5#144Noma Akugue Noha

7-5 6-4#110Moyuka Uchijima

7-6(5) 6-7(5) 7-5#134Tamara Zidansek

7-5 6-4#212Sara Sorribes Tormo

6-3 5-7 7-5#87Solana Sierra

7-6(4) 3-2 ret.#71Panna Udvardy

6-7(6) 6-3 6-2#27Emma Navarro

5-7 6-2 6-2#105Anna Blinkova

6-3 6-4#96Emiliana Arango

3-6 6-1 7-6(3)#10Elina Svitolina

6-4 7-5#56Anhelina Kalinina

7-6(6) 1-6 6-0#96Emiliana Arango

1-1 ret.#219Polona Hercog

3-6 6-3 6-4#123Qinwen Zheng

6-7(5) 6-3 7-6(5)#5Mirra Andreeva

Alina Charaeva

10W 5L

5-7 7-5 7-5#80Sinja Kraus

3-6 7-5 6-1#212Sara Sorribes Tormo

6-3 6-3#79Yulia Putintseva

6-0 6-1#119Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva

4-6 6-4 6-1#111Polina Kudermetova

5-7 6-4 6-0#258Caroline Werner

6-2 6-4#169Elizabeth Mandlik

6-3 6-7(5) 7-6(4)#216Ayla Aksu

5-7 6-2 7-5#160Susan Bandecchi

6-2 6-2#389Anastasia Kulikova

6-0 6-0#318Manon Leonard

6-3 4-6 6-4#111Polina Kudermetova

6-2 7-6(6)#70Talia Gibson

6-2 7-5#29Alexandra Eala

6-3 6-1#176Greetje Minnen

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ABAnna BondarBondar

Last 15

4–5

9 core stats · 0 even

Alina CharaevaCharaevaAC

Alina Charaeva carries the stronger recent form — Anna Bondar's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In63.5%+5.0pp58.5%

1st Serve Won62.0%+4.2pp66.2%

2nd Serve Won47.9%+1.9pp46.0%

Aces / Match3.1+1.64.7

Double Faults / Match2.32.9 fewer5.2

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won41.6%+4.6pp46.2%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted38.8%+15.5pp54.3%

Break Pts Saved59.7%+4.9pp54.8%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.2%+2.9pp52.1%

Serve · 3–2

63.5%1st Serve In+5.0pp58.5%

62.0%1st Serve Won+4.2pp66.2%

47.9%2nd Serve Won+1.9pp46.0%

3.1Aces / Match+1.64.7

2.3Double Faults / Match2.9 fewer5.2

Return · 0–1

41.6%Return Pts Won+4.6pp46.2%

Pressure · 1–1

38.8%Break Pts Converted+15.5pp54.3%

59.7%Break Pts Saved+4.9pp54.8%

Points · 0–1

49.2%Total Pts Won+2.9pp52.1%

Anna Bondar #97Hungary2Alina Charaeva #117Armenia0

Player Profiles

Anna Bondar

Alina Charaeva

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 21.5

Alina Charaeva +2.5

Over 9.5

Over 9.5

Anna Bondar 2-1

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 4 landed

Sets0 of 1 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Anna Bondar

Alina Charaeva

Stat Battle