United StatesSan Diego - USAFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Tristan Boyer #168United States1Timo Legout #535France2

Sets 6-2 · 5-7 · 5-7Fri 25 Sept 2026, 21:28 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions4–544%

Edges1–233%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageTristan Boyer · 367 places

Tristan Boyer

United States

Reached a career-high No. 106 on 8 September 2025 and is No. 168 in the supplied structured data. He is a 188 cm right-hander with a two-handed backhand, and his profile source lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #168
Peak ranking: #106 · 2025
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Timo Legout

France

French right-hander who reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 406 on 29 May 2023. The supplied structured data lists him at No. 535; ITF lists clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #535
Peak ranking: #406 · 2023
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Sep 2026, 15:10 · Europe/Bucharest

Legout's four-win run from qualifying meets Boyer's straight-set path into the San Diego quarter-final, pitting a sharper but more heavily worked No. 410 against a higher-ranked, fresher No.

208. Legout is the likelier winner, and the likelier straight-sets winner. The prices agree: 1.9 for Legout to win the match, 1.9 for the first set and 3.2 for a straight-sets win all carry an edge; Boyer's 1.8 quotes do not.

Context

Legout, No. 410, has needed four matches in San Diego, two of them in qualifying, and beat No. 205 Colton Smith 6-3 6-3, the only opponent this week ranked well above him. That result matters here because Boyer is No. 208, the same bracket of opponent, so there is recent evidence Legout can beat a player at this level rather than only lower-ranked opposition. The limitation is scale: his career-high No. 406 dates to May 2023 and four Challenger wins move him only just past that mark, so one strong week is not yet a settled level.
- Legout, ranked No. 410, beat No. 205 Colton Smith 6-3 6-3 to reach the San Diego Challenger quarterfinals.
- Legout's run to the last eight required four wins, two of them in qualifying.
- The win took him to a ranking position around the No. 406 career high he set in May 2023.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Sep 2026, 15:09 · Europe/Bucharest
Legout has played four matches since 20 September to reach the quarterfinal that took Boyer, a seeded direct entrant, two. Two of those were qualifying rounds, which is the structural difference: Boyer entered the main draw and has not played a match decided by a third set this week. The extra load is volume rather than long days, since only Legout's opener against Daniel Milavsky went past two sets and his other three matches finished in straight sets. Both men were last on court, so the difference is accumulated matches rather than a shorter turnaround for either.
- Legout played qualifying rounds on 20 and and main-draw matches on 22 and .
- Legout's only three-set match of the run was a 7-5 6-7(5) 6-2 win over Daniel Milavsky .
- Boyer played first-round and second-round matches on 22 and, both in straight sets.
- Qualifying at the San Diego Challenger concluded, with qualifiers placed in the main draw.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Sep 2026, 15:09 · Europe/Bucharest
Legout, the No. 410, has started fast in almost every match of this window, giving up little more than two and a half games a set in the opener.
Boyer's own opening sets have been far tighter — he has split his 12 first sets on hard and four went to tiebreaks — so the first set is where the gap between the two records is most likely to show.
- 14 completed hard-court matches, 5 August to 24 September 2026: set 1 record 13 wins, 1 loss.
- First sets average 6.07 games won and 2.71 lost, 8.79 games in total.
- One retired match is excluded from that aggregate.
Legout's 12-2 run has one clear blemish, and it came against a player far below his own ranking rather than a higher one.
It shows an opponent well down the list can take sets off him when he is second best on the day, which is the main argument for Boyer winning at least a set here.
- 17 September 2026, hard court: Legout lost 6-7 2-6 to Bryce Nakashima, ranked No. 602.
- Legout won eight games across the two sets, both of which went against him.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Legout arrives with the stronger and far more dominant recent hard-court record, while Boyer has been splitting matches against similar-level opposition and dropped one to a much lower-ranked player.
- Legout is 12-2 in his last 14 completed hard-court matches, including 12 straight-set wins.
- Boyer is 6-6 across his last 12 completed hard-court matches and 6-7 in his last 13 overall.
- Legout beat No. 205 Colton Smith 6-3 6-3 in San Diego; Boyer's two San Diego wins came against opponents ranked 444 and 449.
- Boyer lost on hard to James Watt, ranked 897.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTimo LegoutEstimated chance56%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second sets sit around nine games on average, with very few tiebreaks, keeping the shorter side slightly favoured.
- Boyer's second sets average 8.75 total games on hard.
- Legout's second sets average 9.29 total games.
- Each player has had one second-set tiebreak in the sample.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Legout's efficient straight-set wins pull the expected game count down, and both players finish most matches without a decider.
- Legout's hard-court matches average 19.14 total games.
- Boyer's hard-court matches average 21.58 total games.
- Legout has won 11 of 12 completed hard-court matches in straight sets.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 20.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Legout has been closing first sets quickly, and his lopsided game counts suggest short opening sets are his norm.
- Legout's first sets average 8.79 total games.
- Boyer's first sets average 10.58 total games, with four tiebreaks in 12.
- Legout's first sets average 6.07 games won against 2.71 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players finish the large majority of their matches in straight sets, and Legout in particular rarely gets taken to a decider.
- Legout's 14 hard-court matches average 2.14 sets; 11 of his 12 wins were in straight sets.
- Boyer's 12 hard-court matches average 2.25 sets, with nine of 12 finishing in straight sets.
- Legout has played only two three-set matches in 14; Boyer three in 12.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Legout has started almost every recent match strongly and concedes very few games early, while Boyer's opening sets are frequently tight.
- Legout has won 13 of 14 first sets across his hard-court sample.
- Legout averages 6.07 games won and 2.71 lost in first sets.
- Boyer is 6-6 in first sets on hard, with four tiebreaks in 12.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostTimo LegoutEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Legout's second-set numbers are also positive, though slightly less dominant than his first sets, and Boyer has been competitive in this set.
- Legout is 11-3 in second sets across his hard-court sample, averaging 5.57 games won and 3.71 lost.
- Boyer is 7-5 in second sets on hard, averaging 4.42 games won and 4.33 lost.
- Boyer's second sets average 8.75 total games.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonTimo LegoutEstimated chance56%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Legout's recent matches rarely reach tiebreaks, and if he dictates the scoreline the match is unlikely to produce one.
- Legout has played two tiebreak matches in 14 hard-court matches.
- Boyer has played five tiebreak matches in 12 hard-court matches.
- Legout's 11 straight-set wins mostly came without tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance68%

Previous match context available

Tristan Boyer

7W 8L

6-4 7-6(7)#444Sebastian Gorzny 7-6(4) 6-1#449Spencer Johnson

7-6(2) 6-1#250Abedallah Shelbayh

6-2 6-4#338Edward Winter

6-4 3-6 6-4#184Andre Ilagan

7-6(10) 6-2#897James Watt

6-2 6-2#356Aidan Mayo

6-2 1-6 6-2#763Matthew Forbes

6-3 3-6 6-3#198Edas Butvilas

6-7(4) 4-3 ret.#22Francisco Cerundolo

7-5 6-2#122Gabriel Diallo

7-6(1) 6-3#884Lorenzo Claverie

6-4 6-4#94Jacob Fearnley

1-3 ret.#182Bernard Tomic

6-3 7-5 7-5#48Nuno Borges

Timo Legout

13W 2L

6-3 6-3#205Colton Smith 7-5 6-7(5) 6-2#312Daniel Milavsky 6-3 6-1#555Daniil Ostapenkov 6-2 6-0#766Darian King

7-6(6) 6-2#602Bryce Nakashima

6-1 6-4#230Henry Searle

6-3 6-4#555Daniil Ostapenkov

6-1 6-4#746Evan Bynoe

3-6 6-4 6-1#442Garrett Johns

6-2 6-3#356Aidan Mayo

6-2 6-4#513Evan Zhu

3-4 ret.#177Clement Chidekh

6-2 6-2#721Jack Anthrop

6-2 6-4—Alexander Frusina

6-2 6-4#1243Spencer Papa

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TBTristan BoyerBoyer

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Timo LegoutLegoutTL

Timo Legout carries the stronger recent form — Tristan Boyer's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In60.3%+5.3pp65.6%

1st Serve Won70.6%+1.6pp69.0%

2nd Serve Won53.3%+3.3pp56.6%

Aces / Match3.8+2.81.0

Double Faults / Match2.90.4 fewer2.5

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won36.3%+10.1pp46.4%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted35.8%+9.1pp44.9%

Break Pts Saved62.6%+5.0pp67.6%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.8%+5.3pp55.1%

Serve · 2–3

60.3%1st Serve In+5.3pp65.6%

70.6%1st Serve Won+1.6pp69.0%

53.3%2nd Serve Won+3.3pp56.6%

3.8Aces / Match+2.81.0

2.9Double Faults / Match0.4 fewer2.5

Return · 0–1

36.3%Return Pts Won+10.1pp46.4%

Pressure · 0–2

35.8%Break Pts Converted+9.1pp44.9%

62.6%Break Pts Saved+5.0pp67.6%

Points · 0–1

49.8%Total Pts Won+5.3pp55.1%

Tristan Boyer

Timo Legout

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Timo Legout

Timo Legout

Timo Legout 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Tristan Boyer

Timo Legout

Stat Battle