ATP ChengduFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Martin Damm #94United States2Shintaro Mochizuki #117Japan0

Sets 6-1 · 6-4Thu 24 Sept 2026, 10:58 Predictions gradedIndoor

Predictions1–0100%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMartin Damm · 23 places

Martin Damm

United States

Damm was born on 30 September 2003 and is a 203 cm left-hander. Structured data supplied for this match lists him at No. 94.

Current ranking: #94
Peak ranking: #94
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 203 cm

Shintaro Mochizuki

Japan

Reached a career-high No. 92 on November 10, 2025 after moving into the Top 100 that autumn. Former world No. 1 junior.

Current ranking: #117
Peak ranking: #92 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Sep 2026, 22:17 · Europe/Bucharest

Damm's serve against Mochizuki's second serve is the tension: Damm lands 62.5% of first serves and wins 76.9% of those points, while Mochizuki has made only 48.1% of first serves across his last 15 matches.

Damm is the likelier winner, but 1.55 asks for about a 64.5% chance and offers nothing at that price.

Context

The two players reach this first-round match from opposite directions. Mochizuki has been competing in China and arrives off two Chengdu qualifying wins on 22-, one of them a three-setter, so he has recent matches on these outdoor hard courts. Damm has not played since a five-set US Open first-round loss and spent the preceding weekend at a Davis Cup tie in Prague, roughly six hours behind Chengdu. Match volume and travel are a genuine asymmetry, but they do not by themselves establish either player's level on the day.
- Mochizuki won Chengdu qualifying matches on 22 and, one of them in three sets
- Damm has not played a tour-level match since his five-set US Open first-round defeat
- Damm was at the United States' Davis Cup tie in Prague on 18- before travelling to Chengdu
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 22:16 · Europe/Bucharest
Mochizuki came through the Chengdu qualifying draw as its top seed and beat Pavel Kotov 7-5 6-3, eight days after Kotov had won their only previous meeting 7-6(4) 6-1 in Guangzhou. Reversing a recent straight-sets defeat settled that head-to-head and put him into the main draw with two completed matches behind him. The limitation is the opponent: Kotov is ranked outside the top 180, so the win shows competitive continuity rather than evidence against better-ranked opposition.
- Beat Pavel Kotov 7-5 6-3 in the final qualifying round
- Kotov had won their only previous meeting 7-6(4) 6-1 at the Guangzhou Challenger on 15 September
- The win carried Mochizuki into the Chengdu main draw, where he opens against Damm
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 22:16 · Europe/Bucharest
Damm's 7-5 6-3 defeat of Daniil Medvedev at Winston-Salem in August 2026 was the first win of his career over a top-10 opponent. It matters here as the standout result of his North American hard-court summer, on the surface and in the part of the season that lead directly into Chengdu. The counterpoint is that it stands alone: he lost his next match at Winston-Salem and then his US Open opener, so it did not become a run.
- Beat Daniil Medvedev 7-5 6-3 at Winston-Salem in August 2026
- It was Damm's first career win over a top-10 opponent
- He lost at the next stage of the same event and in the US Open first round
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 22:16 · Europe/Bucharest
Free points on his own delivery and pressure on the return are Damm's clearest route through this match, given how often his opponent has been forced onto a second serve. The counterweight sits in the same sample: 4.4 double faults a match and only 36.4% of break points converted (28 of 77) show that the serve has not always turned into control of a set.
- Over 15 tracked matches ending 31 August 2026, Damm averaged 11.8 aces per match (177 in 15).
- He landed 62.5% of first serves (808 of 1,292) and won 76.9% of first-serve points (621 of 808).
- He won 51.8% of games in that window (214 of 413), with 4.4 double faults per match (66) and 36.4% of break points converted (28 of 77).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Martin Damm

1.55fair 1.75

BetBugs 57% · Market 64.5%

−7.5ppshort

Damm is the higher-ranked left-hander with a far stronger serve and better game and point numbers, while Mochizuki's serve is vulnerable and gives Damm's return enough chances.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Damm is the higher-ranked left-hander with a far stronger serve and better game and point numbers, while Mochizuki's serve is vulnerable and gives Damm's return enough chances.
- Damm 8-7 in his last 15 matches; 11.8 aces per match and 76.9% of first-serve points won
- Mochizuki 7-8 in his last 15; 48.1% first serves in and 5.2 double faults per match
- Damm has won 51.8% of games in that span against Mochizuki's 46.1%
- Mochizuki has won two Chengdu qualifying matches this week (including 7-5 6-3 over Kotov); Damm's last recorded match was 31 August
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMartin DammEstimated chance57%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace average is only marginally above the line, and most match outcomes land below it once a two-set finish is considered.
- Damm 11.8 aces per match (177 in 15); Mochizuki 2.5 per match (37 in 15); combined average 14.3
- Mochizuki wins 41% of return points, so Damm's serve is not facing a passive returner
- Damm's matches average 113 minutes, Mochizuki's 109; a short two-set match cuts the total sharply
- The line sits essentially on the combined per-match average of the two players
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 14.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players double-fault at a high rate, and Mochizuki's low first-serve percentage means a steady supply of second serves under pressure.
- Damm 4.4 double faults per match (66 in 15); Mochizuki 5.2 per match (78 in 15); combined average 9.6
- Mochizuki lands only 48.1% of first serves, forcing repeated second serves
- Damm lands 62.5% of first serves but still averaged 4.4 double faults per match
- The combined average is fractionally above the 9.5 line
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance54%

Previous match context available

Martin Damm

8W 7L

6-4 4-6 3-6 6-3 6-4#8Frances Tiafoe

2-6 6-3 6-3#59Fabian Marozsan

7-5 6-3#6Daniil Medvedev

6-4 7-6(2)#250Abedallah Shelbayh

6-4 7-6(4)#134Stefanos Sakellaridis

6-4 6-4#44Stefanos Tsitsipas

6-3 7-6(3)#116Henrique Rocha

6-4 4-6 6-4#4Ben Shelton

4-6 7-5 7-6(4)#250Abedallah Shelbayh

6-2 6-0#227Kimmer Coppejans

6-4 7-6(1) 6-3#31Arthur Rinderknech

7-6(5) 6-7(5) 7-6(2) 7-6(5)#87Marco Trungelliti

6-4 3-6 6-3#77Jenson Brooksby

6-3 7-6(2)#81Zachary Svajda

6-3 6-2#41Daniel Merida Aguilar

Shintaro Mochizuki

7W 8L

7-5 6-3#188Pavel Kotov

7-5 4-6 7-5#817Linang Xiao

7-6(4) 6-1#188Pavel Kotov

6-1 6-4 7-5#15Jakub Mensik

6-4 6-2#223Francesco Passaro

6-4 6-1#202Braden Shick

7-6(5) 6-4#312Daniel Milavsky

7-5 4-6 6-3#158Soon-Woo Kwon

6-2 2-6 6-3#218Jeff Wolf

6-4 6-3#59Fabian Marozsan

1-6 7-6(5) 6-3#110Dane Sweeny

6-3 6-2#249Hayato Matsuoka

2-6 6-2 6-4#262Charles Broom

6-0 6-3#209Liam Draxl

6-4 7-6(4)#297Johannus Monday

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MDMartin DammDamm

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Shintaro MochizukiMochizukiSM

Martin Damm carries the stronger recent form — Shintaro Mochizuki's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 5–0

1st Serve In62.5%+14.4pp48.1%

1st Serve Won76.9%+9.4pp67.5%

2nd Serve Won51.7%+7.4pp44.3%

Aces / Match11.8+9.32.5

Double Faults / Match4.40.8 fewer5.2

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won33.3%+7.7pp41.0%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted36.4%+10.3pp46.7%

Break Pts Saved66.7%+9.9pp56.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won50.6%+2.3pp48.3%

Serve · 5–0

62.5%1st Serve In+14.4pp48.1%

76.9%1st Serve Won+9.4pp67.5%

51.7%2nd Serve Won+7.4pp44.3%

11.8Aces / Match+9.32.5

4.4Double Faults / Match0.8 fewer5.2

Return · 0–1

33.3%Return Pts Won+7.7pp41.0%

Pressure · 1–1

36.4%Break Pts Converted+10.3pp46.7%

66.7%Break Pts Saved+9.9pp56.8%

Points · 1–0

50.6%Total Pts Won+2.3pp48.3%