ChinaATP HangzhouFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Jaime Faria #79Portugal2Terence Atmane #46France1

Sets 3-6 · 7-6 · 6-4Thu 24 Sept 2026, 05:46 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions6–460%

Edges5–456%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageTerence Atmane · 33 places

Jaime Faria

Portugal

Structured match data lists Faria at No. 79, right-handed, and 188 cm. No additional reliable profile details were established from the requested searches.

Current ranking: #79
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Terence Atmane

France

Reached a career-high No. 41 on April 13, 2026. The reviewed public results did not establish a reliable preferred-surface label or a current active fitness issue.

Current ranking: #46
Peak ranking: #41 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Sep 2026, 02:06 · Europe/Bucharest

Faria, the higher-ranked player, meets a left-hander whose last match was almost four weeks ago, though Atmane has beaten top-30 opponents on hard courts.

Faria is the likelier winner and several quoted prices hold up: 2.10 to win the match, 1.85 with a 1.5-game start, 2.00 for either of the first two sets, 3.30 for a 2-0 win and 2.00 for over 23.5 games. Atmane at 1.73 and under 2.5 sets at 1.55 are not worth taking.

Context

Atmane's most recent competitive tennis was a five-hour five-setter on 30 August 2026, which leaves him about three and a half weeks without match play and with the physical cost of that defeat as the last available signal about his condition. Cramping during the match and a disagreement over courtside treatment are the specific details that make the episode relevant here, because this first round asks him to compete immediately at tour level. The counterpoint is that no withdrawal, retirement or medical timeout has followed, so this is evidence about workload and freshness rather than a diagnosed, active injury. It is nonetheless the clearest asymmetry between the two players going into the match.
- US Open first-round defeat to Jaume Munar after leading by two sets and a break, with cramping and a mid-match dispute over treatment.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 02:04 · Europe/Bucharest
This is why Faria carries recent competitive tennis into the opening round while Atmane does not: he played for Portugal, five days before this match, so his match rhythm is current. Winning his first Davis Cup singles match adds a milestone element to that outing rather than making it routine preparation. The limiting factor runs the other way, because the tie was in Central America and the trip to Hangzhou sits between that weekend and this match, so sharpness and travel fatigue pull in opposite directions. Davis Cup singles are also best-of-three, so the workload is modest rather than heavy.
- Portugal took a 2-0 lead in the tie with Faria winning his opening singles match, his first Davis Cup win.
- Faria named in Portugal's opening Davis Cup singles pairing alongside Nuno Borges.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 02:04 · Europe/Bucharest
A career-high ranking three days before the match is the clearest marker of how far Faria has moved in 2026, and it puts him 15 places above Atmane. It is a context fact rather than a playing edge, since a gap of that size at this level does not separate two players on an outdoor hard court. The ranking does carry practical weight, protecting direct entry into main draws through the closing weeks of the season. The caveat is that Atmane reached No. 41 in April, so the direction of travel, not the current margin, is the meaningful part of this comparison.
- Rankings update naming Faria at a new career-high No. 68 in the week of .
- Portuguese coverage of the ranking move confirming Faria's climb inside the top 70.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 02:04 · Europe/Bucharest
These are the results behind Faria's recent hard-court record and they came outdoors on the surface used in Hangzhou, within the last six weeks. Beating a top-10 opponent in Cincinnati and surviving a five-set first round in New York are stronger evidence than anything in Atmane's recent match list. The run ended with a clear defeat in four sets to Alcaraz on 2 September, so it suggests a reliable floor rather than a level that overwhelms this opponent. Faria has also played only that Davis Cup singles since New York, so the form is recent but not continuous.
- Faria described as the recent winner over Ben Shelton in Cincinnati ahead of the Davis Cup tie.
- US Open second-round elimination by Carlos Alcaraz, the world No. 3, after a five-set first-round win over Jenson Brooksby.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 02:04 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 7

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Faria's higher ranking and stronger recent hard-court wins make him a slight favourite, though Atmane's left-handed game keeps it competitive.
- Faria ranked 68 vs Atmane 83
- Faria hard-court best-of-3 setEvidence: 5 wins in 8, 15/27 sets won on hard
- Atmane hard-court best-of-3 setEvidence: 4 wins in 7, but 3 of 7 losses were straight sets
- Atmane has not played since a five-set US Open loss on 30 August
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJaime FariaEstimated chance58%

Games3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Faria is favoured and has often kept matches within one game even in defeats, so a 1.5-game cushion is valuable.
- Faria's recent hard-court game margins: -11, +1, -6, +1, +4, +7
- Faria covers +1.5 if he wins or loses by one game (margin >= -1)
- He met that in four of six recent hard-court matches, with the two failures against Alcaraz and Musetti
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonJaime Faria +1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Set1 has averaged more than 9.5 games for both players on hard courts, so over is more likely.
- Faria's set1 total games average is 10.75
- Atmane's set1 total games average is 10.29
- Both set1 averages are above 9.5
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Atmane's set2s often go deep, and even Faria's average is near the line, so over is slightly favoured.
- Faria's set2 total games average is 9.25
- Atmane's set2 total games average is 11.29
- Atmane has four tiebreaks in seven set2s
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Atmane's matches tend to produce more games, pushing the combined expectation just above the line.
- Faria's hard-court best-of-3 total games average is 22.88
- Atmane's is 24.14
- Atmane's set2 tiebreaks and three-set matches raise totals
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 23.5Estimated chance54%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Faria has been the stronger starter on hard courts and is the higher-ranked player.
- Faria won set1 in 5 of 8 hard-court best-of-3 matches
- Atmane won set1 in 3 of 7
- Faria's set1 average is 5.75 games won vs 5.00 lost
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostJaime FariaEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Faria's set2 record is stronger, though Atmane's tiebreak history makes it closer.
- Faria won set2 in 5 of 8 hard-court best-of-3 matches
- Atmane won set2 in 3 of 7
- Atmane's set2 has four tiebreaks, showing competitiveness
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonJaime FariaEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.55
The read
The most common recent scorelines for both players are straight-set results, so a two-set match is more likely.
- Faria's hard-court best-of-3: 2-0 in four of eight
- Atmane has lost 0-2 in three of seven
- SetBetting gives 55% to straight-set outcomes
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Atmane's serve and tiebreak-heavy set2s make at least one tiebreak slightly more likely than not.
- Faria has tiebreaks in 3 of 8 hard-court best-of-3 matches
- Atmane has tiebreaks in 4 of 7
- Atmane's set2 alone has four tiebreaks in seven
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance52%

Prediction history

Jaime Faria: 11/15 recent winner projections matched

11 of 15 comparable winner projections favouring Jaime Faria matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Jaime Faria15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·ATP Montreal

#79Jaime Faria1-2#126Christopher O'Connell

BetBugsJaime Faria to win·62%

Missed

1 Aug 2026

ATP Montreal

#79Jaime Faria1-2#126Christopher O'Connell

Jaime Faria to win

62%probability

Christopher O'Connell won

Missed

24 Jul·ATP Estoril

#88Jaime Faria1-2#21Luciano Darderi

BetBugsJaime Faria to win·55%

Missed

24 Jul 2026

ATP Estoril

#88Jaime Faria1-2#21Luciano Darderi

Jaime Faria to win

55%probability

Luciano Darderi won

Missed

23 Jul·ATP Estoril

#88Jaime Faria2-0#180Gonzalo Bueno

BetBugsJaime Faria to win·72%

Matched

23 Jul 2026

ATP Estoril

#88Jaime Faria2-0#180Gonzalo Bueno

Jaime Faria to win

72%probability

Jaime Faria won

Matched

21 Jul·ATP Estoril

#55Botic Van De Zandschulp0-2#92Jaime Faria

BetBugsJaime Faria to win·58%

Matched

21 Jul 2026

ATP Estoril

#55Botic Van De Zandschulp0-2#92Jaime Faria

Jaime Faria to win

58%probability

Jaime Faria won

Matched

14 Jul·ATP Gstaad

#92Jaime Faria2-1#117Stan Wawrinka

BetBugsJaime Faria to win·62%

Matched

14 Jul 2026

ATP Gstaad

#92Jaime Faria2-1#117Stan Wawrinka

Jaime Faria to win

62%probability

Jaime Faria won

Matched

Previous match context available

Jaime Faria

9W 6L

4-6 6-0 6-3 6-2#3Carlos Alcaraz

6-3 7-6(4) 4-6 1-6 6-2#77Jenson Brooksby

7-5 6-2#24Lorenzo Musetti

4-6 6-4 7-6(3)#99Adam Walton

6-4 6-4#4Ben Shelton

6-3 6-2#77Jenson Brooksby

6-3 7-5#113Yibing Wu

6-4 6-4#145Nikoloz Basilashvili

7-6(2) 6-2#84Titouan Droguet

6-7(8) 6-2 6-4#115Christopher O'Connell

2-6 7-5 6-2#20Luciano Darderi

6-2 6-4#175Gonzalo Bueno

6-3 6-4#40Botic Van De Zandschulp

6-7(1) 6-4 6-2#17Casper Ruud

6-7(8) 6-4 6-4#141Stan Wawrinka

Terence Atmane

6W 9L

6-7(5) 3-6 6-1 7-6(4) 7-5#66Jaume Antoni Munar Clar

7-6(4) 7-6(6)#2Alexander Zverev

6-3 7-6(4)#30Tomas Martin Etcheverry

3-1 ret.#118Marton Fucsovics

7-5 6-4#15Jakub Mensik

6-4 7-6(3)#26Karen Khachanov

6-3 2-6 6-2#155Jack Draper

6-3 7-6(6)#32Alejandro Tabilo

4-6 6-3 6-4#8Frances Tiafoe

7-6(6) 6-1 4-6 6-4#8Frances Tiafoe

6-7(7) 6-4 7-5#122Gabriel Diallo

6-4 6-4#6Daniil Medvedev

6-3 3-6 7-6(2)#62Martin Landaluce

6-4 6-4#48Nuno Borges

6-7(5) 6-2 4-6 6-3 7-5#412Thanasi Kokkinakis

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JFJaime FariaFaria

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Terence AtmaneAtmaneTA

Terence Atmane carries the stronger recent form — Jaime Faria's route runs through return.

Serve · 0–5

1st Serve In56.5%+5.2pp61.7%

1st Serve Won72.5%+3.2pp75.7%

2nd Serve Won48.3%+3.4pp51.7%

Aces / Match8.0+0.58.5

Double Faults / Match6.43.3 fewer3.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won36.3%+7.5pp28.8%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted40.8%+6.4pp34.4%

Break Pts Saved63.6%+2.1pp65.7%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won49.5%+1.2pp48.3%

Serve · 0–5

56.5%1st Serve In+5.2pp61.7%

72.5%1st Serve Won+3.2pp75.7%

48.3%2nd Serve Won+3.4pp51.7%

8.0Aces / Match+0.58.5

6.4Double Faults / Match3.3 fewer3.1

Return · 1–0

36.3%Return Pts Won+7.5pp28.8%

Pressure · 1–1

40.8%Break Pts Converted+6.4pp34.4%

63.6%Break Pts Saved+2.1pp65.7%

Points · 1–0

49.5%Total Pts Won+1.2pp48.3%

Jaime Faria

Terence Atmane

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Jaime Faria +1.5

Over 9.5

Jaime Faria

Jaime Faria

Jaime Faria

Over 23.5

Jaime Faria 2-0

Over 9.5

Under 2.5

Result1 of 1 landed

Games3 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Jaime Faria

Terence Atmane

Stat Battle