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Predictions graded

Federico Cina #178Italy2Camilo Ugo Carabelli #76Argentina0

Sets 6-3 · 6-2Thu 24 Sept 2026, 07:35 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions6–555%

Edges0–30%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageCamilo Ugo Carabelli · 102 places

Federico Cina

Italy

At No. 178, Cina remains close to his career-high No. 174, reached on 29 June 2026. ATP lists hard as his favourite surface and his father, Francesco, as his coach.

Current ranking: #178
Peak ranking: #174 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Argentina

Argentine born 17 June 1999. He reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 43 in August 2025 after back-to-back ATP Tour semi-finals in Bastad and Umag.

Current ranking: #76
Peak ranking: #43 · 2025
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Sep 2026, 15:05 · Europe/Bucharest

Cina's better hard-court results this window and his 6-3 6-2 win in the only meeting in the record make him the pick to advance, though Carabelli is ranked 95 places higher and Cina's second-set record on hard is 3-5.

Three quoted prices offer value: over 18.5 total games at 12.0, over 2.5 sets at 12.0 and Carabelli to win at 26.0. Under 18.5 games at 1.01 is one to leave alone.

Context

Cina's only previous encounter with Carabelli produced a straight-sets win.
A single match is a thin basis for anything, and it is the only head-to-head listed for this pairing. The scoreline does sit alongside Cina's marginally better hard-court results in this window, but Carabelli's ranking is 95 places higher and one match settles very little.
- Sample: one listed meeting. Cina won 6-3 6-2.
Cina's first sets have been a coin flip while his second sets have leaned away from him.
First sets in this eight-match sample have been even and second sets have tilted against him, with one retirement excluded from the totals. That second-set record is the clearest risk to the case for Cina in this first round, and his 23.4-game average shows how often these matches run long.
- Sample: 8 completed hard-court best-of-three matches for Cina, 3 August to 23 September 2026, one retirement excluded.
- Set 1: 4 wins, 4 losses. Set 2: 3 wins, 5 losses.
- Total games average 23.375 across the eight matches; two of them included a tiebreak.
Cina's latest completed match on hard court ended in a two-set loss.
It is one match, and it came a day after a 6-1 6-2 win over Kaichi Uchida (No. 331), so it reads more as the swing of a short hard-court window than a settled direction. It does mean he comes into the Chengdu first round on a loss rather than a win.
- 23 September 2026: Cina lost 0-2 to Nikoloz Basilashvili (No. 145) on hard, 3-6 2-6, winning 5 games and losing 12.
Carabelli has one positive hard-court result to show from this stretch, and it came in straight sets.
One win is a thin sample and his hard-court window has mostly gone the other way, which is why the higher ranking carries more of his argument than the recent results do. Even so, it shows he can win in straight sets against a top-120 opponent, comfortably above Cina's ranking of 170.
- 19 August 2026: Carabelli beat Nicolas Mejia (No. 119) 7-5 6-4 on hard in a best-of-three match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cina has the better recent hard-court results and won their only listed meeting in straight sets.
- Cina won the only listed H2H 6-3 6-2
- Cina is 4-5 on hard this window, Carabelli 1-3
- Cina's hard setEvidence shows 4 wins in 8 matches
- Carabelli is ranked 75 to Cina's 170
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFederico CinaEstimated chance56%

Games1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cina has rarely won by more than 7.5 games in his recent hard matches.
- Cina's H2H +7 did not cover -7.5
- Cina's other recent hard wins were by +1 and +3
- Cina has lost by -7, -7, -13 in recent hard matches
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonCamilo Ugo Carabelli +7.5Estimated chance88%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cina has rarely won by more than 6.5 games in his recent hard matches.
- Cina's H2H +7 barely covered -6.5
- Cina's other recent hard wins were by +1 and +3
- Cina has lost by -7 or more three times recently
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostCamilo Ugo Carabelli +6.5Estimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 12.00
The read
Both players' hard matches average well above 18.5 games.
- Cina's hard setEvidence total games average is 23.375
- Carabelli's hard setEvidence total games average is 21.0
- Both averages exceed 18.5
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 18.5Estimated chance77%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cina has often won by small margins, giving Carabelli a good chance to stay within 5.5 games.
- Cina's recent hard wins were by +1, +3, +9, and +7 in H2H
- Only two of Cina's four recent hard wins covered -5.5
- Carabelli's hard losses were by -8, -6, -3
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostCamilo Ugo Carabelli +5.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Carabelli's first sets average over 11 games and Cina's are near 9.4.
- Carabelli's first sets on hard average 11.33 total games
- Cina's first sets on hard average 9.375 total games
- Carabelli had a first-set tiebreak in his hard sample
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have a majority of straight-set results on hard.
- Cina's hard setEvidence has five straight-set results in eight matches
- Carabelli's hard setEvidence has three straight-set results in three matches
- Carabelli's hard average is 2.0 sets
- Cina's last two hard matches were straight sets
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cina has an even first-set record on hard and won the opening set in their only meeting.
- Cina is 4-4 in first sets on hard
- Cina won the first set 6-3 in the only H2H
- Carabelli is 1-2 in first sets on hard
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonFederico CinaEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cina's poor second-set record gives Carabelli an opening.
- Cina's hard set2 record is 3-5
- Carabelli's hard set2 record is 1-2
- Cina lost the second set in three of his last five hard matches
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostCamilo Ugo CarabelliEstimated chance53%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The majority of their hard matches have been decided without a tiebreak.
- Nine of eleven combined hard matches had no tiebreak
- Cina had only two tiebreaks in eight hard matches
- Carabelli had one tiebreak in three hard matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance70%

Prediction history

Federico Cina: 8/11 recent winner projections matched

8 of 11 comparable winner projections favouring Federico Cina matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Federico Cina11 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

19 Jul·ATP Kitzbuhel

#184Federico Cina2-0#196Lorenzo Giustino

BetBugsFederico Cina to win·58%

Matched

19 Jul 2026

ATP Kitzbuhel

#184Federico Cina2-0#196Lorenzo Giustino

Federico Cina to win

58%probability

Federico Cina won

Matched

18 Jul·ATP Kitzbuhel

#184Federico Cina2-1#299Daniel Michalski

BetBugsFederico Cina to win·58%

Matched

18 Jul 2026

ATP Kitzbuhel

#184Federico Cina2-1#299Daniel Michalski

Federico Cina to win

58%probability

Federico Cina won

Matched

12 Jul·ATP Gstaad

#174Federico Cina2-0#291Calvin Hemery

BetBugsFederico Cina to win·58%

Matched

12 Jul 2026

ATP Gstaad

#174Federico Cina2-0#291Calvin Hemery

Federico Cina to win

58%probability

Federico Cina won

Matched

11 Jul·ATP Gstaad

#174Federico Cina2-0#401Patrick Zahraj

BetBugsFederico Cina to win·72%

Matched

11 Jul 2026

ATP Gstaad

#174Federico Cina2-0#401Patrick Zahraj

Federico Cina to win

72%probability

Federico Cina won

Matched

6 Jul·Iasi - Romania

#284Maks Kasnikowski2-1#174Federico Cina

BetBugsFederico Cina to win·62%

Missed

6 Jul 2026

Iasi - Romania

#284Maks Kasnikowski2-1#174Federico Cina

Federico Cina to win

62%probability

Maks Kasnikowski won

Missed

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-3 6-2Federico Cina#170vCamilo Ugo Carabelli#75Sep 24, 2026

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Federico Cina

8W 7L

6-3 6-2#145Nikoloz Basilashvili

6-1 6-2#331Kaichi Uchida

6-4 6-1#446James Kent Trotter

6-4 6-1 6-0#34Alex Michelsen

3-6 6-4 7-5#111Bu Yunchaokete

6-3 5-7 7-5#129Hugo Dellien

6-4 3-0 ret.#244Luca Nardi

3-6 6-4 7-6(4)#152Tristan Schoolkate

7-6(3) 6-2#250Abedallah Shelbayh

6-3 7-5#190Elias Ymer

4-6 6-3 6-4#72Facundo Diaz Acosta

6-4 6-2#207Lorenzo Giustino

6-2 3-6 6-1#281Daniel Michalski

6-3 3-6 7-6(6)#49Quentin Halys

6-4 6-3#321Calvin Hemery

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

6W 9L

6-4 6-3 6-3#63Jan-Lennard Struff

6-2 5-0 ret.#378Moez Echargui

7-5 6-4#119Nicolas Mejia

6-3 6-3#60Miomir Kecmanovic

7-6(5) 6-4#39Cameron Norrie

6-0 3-6 6-4#84Titouan Droguet

6-2 2-6 6-3#56Roman Andres Burruchaga

3-6 7-5 7-5#69Pablo Carreno-Busta

6-7(2) 7-6(3) 6-3#362Marko Topo

4-6 3-6 6-2 3-0 ret.#41Daniel Merida Aguilar

6-1 1-6 6-3 7-6(5)#25Andrey Rublev

7-6(10) 6-3 6-3#124Emilio Nava

6-4 6-7(10) 6-2#80Aleksandar Kovacevic

7-6(3) 7-6(4)#8Frances Tiafoe

1-6 6-2 6-3#73Kamil Majchrzak

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FCFederico CinaCina

Last 15

7–1

9 core stats · 1 even

Camilo Ugo CarabelliCarabelliCC

Federico Cina carries the stronger recent form — Camilo Ugo Carabelli's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

1st Serve In59.1%—59.5%

1st Serve Won70.5%+1.5pp69.0%

2nd Serve Won51.6%+6.6pp45.0%

Aces / Match5.4+0.94.5

Double Faults / Match3.30.5 fewer3.8

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won38.8%+0.8pp38.0%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted39.6%+5.5pp34.1%

Break Pts Saved52.5%+0.8pp53.3%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won50.1%+1.6pp48.5%

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

59.1%1st Serve In—59.5%

70.5%1st Serve Won+1.5pp69.0%

51.6%2nd Serve Won+6.6pp45.0%

5.4Aces / Match+0.94.5

3.3Double Faults / Match0.5 fewer3.8

Return · 1–0

38.8%Return Pts Won+0.8pp38.0%

Pressure · 1–1

39.6%Break Pts Converted+5.5pp34.1%

52.5%Break Pts Saved+0.8pp53.3%

Points · 1–0

50.1%Total Pts Won+1.6pp48.5%

Federico Cina

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 18.5

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Over 2.5

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 5 landed

Sets2 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Federico Cina

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Stat Battle