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Predictions graded

Fajing Sun #326China0Roman Safiullin #98Russia2

Sets 2-6 · 0-6Thu 24 Sept 2026, 10:33 Predictions gradedIndoor

Predictions1–0100%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageRoman Safiullin · 228 places

Fajing Sun

China

Chinese right-hander whose official ITF profile lists hard courts as his preferred surface. He reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 197 in May 2026.

Current ranking: #326
Peak ranking: #197 · 2026
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Roman Safiullin

Russia

Reached a career-high No. 36 in January 2024. His 2025 season ended after the US Open because of injury; he returned from qualifying to reach the Wimbledon fourth round in July 2026.

Current ranking: #98
Peak ranking: #36 · 2024
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Sep 2026, 16:29 · Europe/Bucharest

Roman Safiullin's ranking and serve should be enough against local qualifier Fajing Sun, but he arrives after three weeks without a match while Sun has two wins in two days and a medical timeout behind him.

Safiullin is the likelier winner; the 1.18 quoted for that is not a price worth taking.

Context

Sun required treatment during the second set and still closed the match out, but the reason for the timeout was not visible, so his condition for the following day is unresolved. It is the only current physical flag on either side, and it came in the second of two matches in two days. A player whose wins come from extending rallies is most exposed if movement or serving is restricted, which is why this sits above his other context notes.
- Sun took a medical timeout at 3-4 down in the second set against Bernard Tomic .
- The nature of the treatment was not visible.
- Sun went on to win the match 6-4 7-5 and take the final qualifying place.
To watchSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 16:27 · Europe/Bucharest
This first-round match carries a clear preparation gap: Sun has two competitive wins behind him inside 48 hours, Safiullin has none in more than three weeks. Sun's route also tested him, with a deciding-set tie-break against Dellavedova and a 7-5 second set against Tomic, so any carryover is physical as much as tactical. For Safiullin, whose place in the field was settled less than a week before the tournament, the open question is match sharpness against an opponent built for long baseline exchanges who will have local support.
- Sun beat Dellavedova 3-6 6-1 7-6(4) in the first qualifying round and Tomic 6-4 7-5 in the final qualifying round .
- Tomic, a four-time ATP titlist, was listed at No. 182 for the match while Sun was No. 314.
- Safiullin's most recent match was a 6-4 6-4 6-4 US Open first-round loss to Carlos Alcaraz on 31 August.
- Safiullin was added to the Hangzhou entry list following withdrawals.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 16:27 · Europe/Bucharest
Safiullin is the clear favourite on ranking, but his own recent results are uneven.
Safiullin has not competed since 31 August, and the match before his US Open exit was a three-set defeat to an opponent ranked nearly 190 places below him. That one result does not overturn a 10-5 record over his last 15 matches or his 7.6 aces a match, but it is a reminder that the ranking gap over Sun has not shown up every week. A first-round match against an opponent with two wins in two days tests whether the three-week gap left him sharp.
- On 24 August 2026, Roman Safiullin lost 6-7 6-4 3-6 to Hugo Grenier, ranked No. 289, in a best-of-three hard-court match.
- Safiullin won 15 games and lost 17 across the three sets.
Sun is the local No. 314 and has played far more tennis than Safiullin in the past week.
Sun sits 212 places below Safiullin, and this defeat came against an opponent ranked 142 places below him. It is one match rather than a trend, but it shows the range in Sun's level this month. He will need to serve and rally better than he did that week to stay with Safiullin's first-strike game across three sets.
- On 8 September 2026, Fajing Sun lost 5-7 4-6 to Jie Cui, ranked No. 456, in a best-of-three hard-court match.
- Sun won 9 games and lost 13 in the match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Roman Safiullin

1.18fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 84.7%

−6.7ppshort

Safiullin is much higher ranked and has stronger serve and points-won numbers, so he should control most service games.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Safiullin is much higher ranked and has stronger serve and points-won numbers, so he should control most service games.
- Ranked 102 vs Sun 314; last-15 record 10-5.
- First-serve points won 74.6% and 7.6 aces per match over last 15.
- Sun has won two Hangzhou qualifiers but is 8-7 in last 15.
- Safiullin has not played since 31 Aug, a three-week break.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonRoman SafiullinEstimated chance78%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Safiullin's ace average is inflated by best-of-five matches, and a best-of-three match with Sun's return should keep the total near or below the line.
- Combined last-15 average is 11.5 aces per match (Safiullin 7.6, Sun 3.9).
- Safiullin's average includes best-of-five Grand Slam matches.
- Sun returns 38% of return points, which can reduce opponent ace count.
- Best-of-three format shortens the match.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 11.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Safiullin's double-fault average comes partly from best-of-five matches, and Sun rarely doubles, so the combined total should stay under the line.
- Safiullin averages 3.1 double faults per match; Sun 1.5.
- Combined average 4.6, but Safiullin's count includes best-of-five matches.
- Sun rarely doubles, at 1.5 per match.
- Best-of-three format shortens the match.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance55%

Prediction history

Roman Safiullin: 13/15 recent winner projections matched

13 of 15 comparable winner projections favouring Roman Safiullin matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Roman Safiullin15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#132Roman Safiullin3-2#54Botic Van De Zandschulp

BetBugsRoman Safiullin to win·55%

Matched

1 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#132Roman Safiullin3-2#54Botic Van De Zandschulp

Roman Safiullin to win

55%probability

Roman Safiullin won

Matched

25 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#127Roman Safiullin3-2#197Jerome Kym

BetBugsRoman Safiullin to win·62%

Matched

25 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#127Roman Safiullin3-2#197Jerome Kym

Roman Safiullin to win

62%probability

Roman Safiullin won

Matched

24 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#127Roman Safiullin2-0#222Kimmer Coppejans

BetBugsRoman Safiullin to win·78%

Matched

24 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#127Roman Safiullin2-0#222Kimmer Coppejans

Roman Safiullin to win

78%probability

Roman Safiullin won

Matched

22 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#131Roman Safiullin2-0#205James Mccabe

BetBugsRoman Safiullin to win·65%

Matched

22 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#131Roman Safiullin2-0#205James Mccabe

Roman Safiullin to win

65%probability

Roman Safiullin won

Matched

16 Jun·Nottingham - Great Britain

#131Roman Safiullin2-0#143August Holmgren

BetBugsRoman Safiullin to win·65%

Matched

16 Jun 2026

Nottingham - Great Britain

#131Roman Safiullin2-0#143August Holmgren

Roman Safiullin to win

65%probability

Roman Safiullin won

Matched

Previous match context available

Fajing Sun

8W 7L

6-4 7-5#182Bernard Tomic

3-6 6-1 7-6(4)#270Matthew Dellavedova

4-6 7-6(4) 6-4#490Alexandr Binda

7-5 3-6 7-5#179Alexis Galarneau

7-5 6-4#456Jie Cui

6-3 6-3#212Chun Hsin Tseng

6-0 7-5#821Hanyi Liu

6-7(2) 6-4 7-6(2)#346Tung-Lin Wu

7-5 7-5#249Hayato Matsuoka

4-6 7-6(4) 6-3#419Semen Pankin

6-2 3-6 6-2—Zangar Nurlanuly

6-3 7-6(4)#151Ilia Simakin

6-4 6-1#419Semen Pankin

6-4 6-4#335Mees Rottgering

6-2 6-3#61Arthur Gea

Roman Safiullin

10W 5L

6-4 6-4 6-4#3Carlos Alcaraz

7-6(6) 4-6 6-3#289Hugo Grenier

6-4 6-3#46Hubert Hurkacz

6-3 6-4#141Stan Wawrinka

6-3 6-4#121Sebastian Ofner

7-6(6) 6-3 3-6 6-3#12Novak Djokovic

6-3 6-3 6-3#28Joao Fonseca

6-0 4-6 6-3 3-6 7-6(5)#40Botic Van De Zandschulp

6-4 6-7(6) 3-6 6-3 7-6(12)#25Andrey Rublev

4-6 7-6(2) 3-6 7-6(6) 6-4#285Jerome Kym

7-6(2) 7-5#227Kimmer Coppejans

6-3 7-6(4)#255James McCabe

6-7(4) 7-6(11) 6-1#168Zhizhen Zhang

6-3 6-2#242August Holmgren

4-6 6-3 6-2#301Oliver Tarvet

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FSFajing SunSun

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Roman SafiullinSafiullinRS

Roman Safiullin carries the stronger recent form — Fajing Sun's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In64.6%+1.4pp66.0%

1st Serve Won69.1%+5.5pp74.6%

2nd Serve Won53.0%+4.6pp57.6%

Aces / Match3.9+3.77.6

Double Faults / Match1.51.6 fewer3.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won38.0%+1.9pp36.1%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted36.0%+2.7pp33.3%

Break Pts Saved61.3%+2.9pp64.2%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.4%+1.3pp51.7%

Serve · 1–4

64.6%1st Serve In+1.4pp66.0%

69.1%1st Serve Won+5.5pp74.6%

53.0%2nd Serve Won+4.6pp57.6%

3.9Aces / Match+3.77.6

1.5Double Faults / Match1.6 fewer3.1

Return · 1–0

38.0%Return Pts Won+1.9pp36.1%

Pressure · 1–1

36.0%Break Pts Converted+2.7pp33.3%

61.3%Break Pts Saved+2.9pp64.2%

Points · 0–1

50.4%Total Pts Won+1.3pp51.7%