Plovdiv - BulgariaFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Oriol Roca Batalla #342Spain1Calvin Hemery #326France2

Sets 6-3 · 4-6 · 1-6Wed 23 Sept 2026, 08:11 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions3–925%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageCalvin Hemery · 16 places

Oriol Roca Batalla

Spain

Spanish clay-court specialist with a career-high singles ranking of No. 150 in August 2024. His 2026 recorded match volume has been entirely on clay.

Current ranking: #342
Peak ranking: #150 · 2024
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Calvin Hemery

France

Born 28 January 1995; right-handed and 191 cm. His career-high singles ranking was No. 116 in April 2018; ITF lists clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #326
Peak ranking: #116 · 2018
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Sep 2026, 15:04 · Europe/Bucharest

Roca Batalla and Hemery, ranked 310 and 321, meet in the Plovdiv second round on clay.

Roca Batalla's better first-set record and shorter matches make him the likelier winner, though Hemery keeps forcing deciding sets. At 19.0 to win the match, Roca Batalla is the one quoted selection carrying a value lean; the handicap and totals leans are low confidence, not priced picks.

Context

Eleven of those 15 matches ended in straight sets, and the sample splits almost evenly between straight-set wins and straight-set losses, so the pattern is about match length rather than control. The four three-setters show the matches can still stretch. First sets have been the longer of the two, averaging 10.27 games with five tiebreaks, while second sets averaged 9.13 games with one, which points to a contest that is more likely to be decided in two sets than three.
- 30 Jul-21 Sep 2026, 15 clay matches: six 2-0 wins, five 0-2 losses, two 2-1 wins and two 1-2 losses.
- Match length averaged 21.7 games and 2.27 sets across the sample.
- First sets averaged 10.27 games with five tiebreaks; second sets averaged 9.13 games with one.
The first set is the weakest part of Hemery's clay sample, and it sits alongside an average match length of 24.27 games and 2.45 sets, longer than his opponent's. Losing the opening set more often than not has not stopped him from winning six of those 11 matches, because five went the distance. That makes the opening set the phase most likely to shape how this second-round match unfolds.
- 30 Jun-21 Sep 2026, 11 completed clay matches: 4-7 in first sets, 5-6 in second sets.
- Five of those matches went to a deciding set; average length was 24.27 games and 2.45 sets.
- Three of the 11 matches featured at least one tiebreak.
- Four retired matches are excluded from this sample.
Hemery lost the first set on a tiebreak and then took the next two by the same 7-6 margin, so he stayed in the match through two long, tight sets. The 20-19 game split shows how little separated the two players on the day. It is a heavy workload in games for his most recent outing, though a single match on its own does not settle how he will back it up.
- 21 Sep 2026: Hemery beat Daniel Elahi Galan (ranked 368) 6-7 7-6 7-6 on clay.
- Match total was 39 games, 20 won and 19 lost, with both the second and third sets decided 7-6.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 19.00
The read
Roca Batalla's slightly better recent results and stronger first-set record give him a narrow edge.
- Roca Batalla is 8-7 on clay this season, with a 53.4% games-won rate.
- He holds an 8-7 first-set record on clay, while Hemery is 4-7.
- Roca Batalla won his most recent match 2-0 against Diego Dedura.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostOriol Roca BatallaEstimated chance56%

Games1 of 6 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Even in defeat, Roca Batalla has usually kept the game margin within three.
- Roca Batalla covered +3.5 in five of his last six clay matches.
- His average margin is +2.8, and only a five-game loss beat this line.
- He has not lost by more than five games in his last six clay matches.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostOriol Roca Batalla +3.5Estimated chance82%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The extra game of cushion makes it harder for Hemery to win by a margin large enough to beat this line.
- Roca Batalla covered +2.5 in four of his last six clay matches.
- His only failures were losses by three and five games.
- He won by seven or more games in two of those matches.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostOriol Roca Batalla +2.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Roca Batalla rarely loses by more than one game, making the small handicap likely to cover.
- Roca Batalla's average game margin in his last six clay matches is +2.8.
- He covered +1.5 in four of those six matches.
- His only failures were losses by three and five games.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonOriol Roca Batalla +1.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent match lengths point to a total under 26.5 games.
- Roca Batalla's clay matches average 21.7 total games; Hemery's average 24.3.
- 7 of their combined 12 recent clay matches went under 26.5 games.
- Roca Batalla's last two matches totaled 17 and 23 games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 26.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The average first-set length points to a slight lean toward over 9.5 games.
- Roca Batalla's first sets average 10.3 games; Hemery's average 10.4.
- Over 9.5 games occurred in 5 of their combined 12 recent first sets.
- Roca Batalla's first set against Moro Canas had 13 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have tended to be shorter than 10 games.
- Roca Batalla's second sets average 9.1 games; Hemery's average 9.3.
- Under 9.5 games occurred in 7 of their combined 12 recent second sets.
- Roca Batalla's second set against Dedura had only 8 games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance56%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Roca Batalla's stronger first-set record gives him the edge to take the opening set.
- Roca Batalla is 8-7 in first sets on clay; Hemery is 4-7.
- Roca Batalla won the first set in four of his last six clay matches.
- Hemery has lost the first set in seven of his 11 clay matches this season.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonOriol Roca BatallaEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have a majority of straight-set matches on clay this season.
- Roca Batalla has played three sets in 4 of 15 clay matches; Hemery in 5 of 11.
- Combined, 17 of their 26 clay matches ended in straight sets.
- Roca Batalla has won 10 of his 15 clay matches in straight sets.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Roca Batalla has a slight advantage in second sets, though the margin is small.
- Roca Batalla is 8-7 in second sets on clay; Hemery is 5-6.
- Roca Batalla has a 53.3% second-set win rate on clay.
- He won the second set in four of his last six clay matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostOriol Roca BatallaEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The majority of their recent clay matches did not feature a tiebreak.
- Roca Batalla has had a tiebreak in 5 of 15 clay matches; Hemery in 3 of 11.
- Only 2 of their combined 12 recent clay matches featured a tiebreak.
- Most of their recent clay matches were decided without a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance68%

Prediction history

Oriol Roca Batalla: 2/5 recent winner projections matched

2 of 5 comparable winner projections favouring Oriol Roca Batalla matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Oriol Roca Batalla5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

30 Jun·Milan - Italy

#319Oriol Roca Batalla1-2#839Pierluigi Basile

BetBugsOriol Roca Batalla to win·78%

Missed

30 Jun 2026

Milan - Italy

#319Oriol Roca Batalla1-2#839Pierluigi Basile

Oriol Roca Batalla to win

78%probability

Pierluigi Basile won

Missed

29 Jun·Milan - Italy

#316Oriol Roca Batalla2-0#380Daniel Masur

BetBugsOriol Roca Batalla to win·72%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

Milan - Italy

#316Oriol Roca Batalla2-0#380Daniel Masur

Oriol Roca Batalla to win

72%probability

Oriol Roca Batalla won

Matched

23 Jun·Targu Mures - Romania

#316Oriol Roca Batalla0-2#190Francesco Passaro

BetBugsOriol Roca Batalla to win·65%

Missed

23 Jun 2026

Targu Mures - Romania

#316Oriol Roca Batalla0-2#190Francesco Passaro

Oriol Roca Batalla to win

65%probability

Francesco Passaro won

Missed

17 Jun·Parma - Italy

#234Chun Hsin Tseng2-0#320Oriol Roca Batalla

BetBugsOriol Roca Batalla to win·58%

Missed

17 Jun 2026

Parma - Italy

#234Chun Hsin Tseng2-0#320Oriol Roca Batalla

Oriol Roca Batalla to win

58%probability

Chun Hsin Tseng won

Missed

1 Jun·Perugia - Italy

#377Oriol Roca Batalla2-1#502Pietro Orlando Fellin

BetBugsOriol Roca Batalla to win·78%

Matched

1 Jun 2026

Perugia - Italy

#377Oriol Roca Batalla2-1#502Pietro Orlando Fellin

Oriol Roca Batalla to win

78%probability

Oriol Roca Batalla won

Matched

Previous match context available

Oriol Roca Batalla

8W 7L

6-3 6-2#186Diego Dedura

7-6(4) 6-4#228Alejandro Moro Canas

2-6 6-3 6-4#279Stefano Napolitano

6-2 6-2#364Alejo Sanchez Quilez

4-6 6-4 6-1#66Jaume Antoni Munar Clar

6-3 6-0#493Alex Marti Pujolras

6-7(5) 7-6(5) 6-0#599Iliyan Radulov

6-4 6-4#220Facundo Mena

7-6(2) 6-2#317Enrico Dalla Valle

6-1 6-1#189Zdenek Kolar

6-7(4) 7-5 7-5#315Radu Mihai Papoe

6-4 6-1#223Francesco Passaro

6-2 6-4#527Nikita Mashtakov

6-4 6-4#627Yanaki Milev

7-6(6) 6-3#756Niklas Guttau

Calvin Hemery

8W 7L

6-7(3) 7-6(4) 7-6(5)#368Daniel Elahi Galan

6-4 6-2#147Dusan Lajovic

6-0 ret.#316Gilles Arnaud Bailly

7-5 5-7 4-2 ret.#340Thomas Faurel

3-6 6-0 6-2#407Eric Vanshelboim

7-5 7-5#282Hynek Barton

6-3 3-6 6-3#259Mika Brunold

6-2 3-6 7-5#611Kai Wehnelt

6-4 6-3#170Federico Cina

7-6(2) 2-6 6-3#281Daniel Michalski

7-6(5) 7-6(7)#256Marvin Moeller

1-2 ret.#369Eliakim Coulibaly

6-3 6-1#386Carlo Alberto Caniato

6-2 6-2#311Anton Matusevich

3-6 6-1 3-0 ret.#373Lucio Ratti

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

OBOriol Roca BatallaBatalla

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Calvin HemeryHemeryCH

Oriol Roca Batalla carries the stronger recent form — Calvin Hemery's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In66.3%+2.0pp64.3%

1st Serve Won67.4%+1.3pp68.7%

2nd Serve Won51.6%+4.9pp46.7%

Aces / Match2.7+0.93.6

Double Faults / Match1.32.4 fewer3.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won40.9%+3.0pp37.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted47.9%+5.8pp42.1%

Break Pts Saved62.1%+1.8pp63.9%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.6%+1.8pp49.8%

Serve · 3–2

66.3%1st Serve In+2.0pp64.3%

67.4%1st Serve Won+1.3pp68.7%

51.6%2nd Serve Won+4.9pp46.7%

2.7Aces / Match+0.93.6

1.3Double Faults / Match2.4 fewer3.7

Return · 1–0

40.9%Return Pts Won+3.0pp37.9%

Pressure · 1–1

47.9%Break Pts Converted+5.8pp42.1%

62.1%Break Pts Saved+1.8pp63.9%

Points · 1–0

51.6%Total Pts Won+1.8pp49.8%