ItalyGenoa - ItalyFinished

Predictions graded

Mika Petkovic #449Germany2Thiago Moura Monteiro #282Brazil1

Sets 4-6 · 6-4 · 6-1Tue 22 Sept 2026, 12:43 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions7–370%

Edges4–357%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageThiago Monteiro · 167 places

Mika Petkovic

Germany

Right-hander with a two-handed backhand, 180 cm, ranked No. 449 and coached by Pelle Boerma. His stored recent record is played entirely on clay, where he has won five of his last fifteen matches. Limited additional reliable public profile information was found for this fixture.

Current ranking: #449
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Thiago Monteiro

Brazil

Left-hander with a two-handed backhand, 183 cm, ranked No. 282 and coached by Ruben Ramirez-Hidalgo and Pablo Fuentes. His stored recent record is played entirely on clay, where he has won ten of his last fifteen matches. Limited additional reliable public profile information was found for this fixture.

Current ranking: #282
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Sep 2026, 12:33 · Europe/Bucharest

Monteiro has the better clay form and beat Petkovic 6-1 4-6 6-2 on 2 September, yet half his clay wins needed three sets and he played a three-setter two days before this opener.

He is still the likelier winner, but 1.29 on him and 1.8 on a 2-0 win ask for more than the record shows. The prices with a case behind them: over 23.5 games at 2.3, Petkovic with a 3.5-game start at 2.1, Petkovic for the second set at 2.9, the opening set at 3.0, and a third set at 2.4.

Context

This is the only recent meeting between the two and the clearest single reference point for this first round. Monteiro's fast start and Petkovic's 6-4 response in the second set both fit the wider clay sample. One match remains a thin basis for expecting a repeat, especially with the third set going Monteiro's way 6-2.
- 2 September 2026, clay: Monteiro won 6-1 4-6 6-2
- Games won: Monteiro 16, Petkovic 9
- Petkovic took the second set 6-4
- Completed match, not a retirement
This is the latest date in Monteiro's recent clay run and the only entry inside the final week before the 22 September kickoff. The scoreline shows a match that went the full three sets and was settled in a final-set tiebreak, losing it 15 games to 17. The record shows a completed match and says nothing about how fresh he will be, and it sits alongside four straight wins from 14 to 19 September.
- 20 September 2026, clay: lost 4-6 6-4 7-6 to Nikolas Sanchez-Izquierdo, ranked 233
- Games won: Monteiro 15, opponent 17
- Completed match, not a retirement
- Played two days before the 22 September kickoff
The first-to-second-set swing is the most distinctive thing in his clay record: he has started slowly but has more often been competitive by the second set. The 2 September meeting followed the same shape, 1-6 followed by 6-4. Six of the 15 matches ended 0-2, so the second-set recovery has not been enough to keep him in matches consistently.
- Set 1 over 15 clay matches: 4 wins, 11 losses
- Set 2 over the same 15 matches: 8 wins, 7 losses
- Sample dates: 21 July to 14 September 2026
- Six of the 15 matches finished 0-2
His ten wins came in equal measure in straight sets and over three sets, so a quick two-set result is not the default for him in this sample. Seven of the 15 matches included a tiebreak and the matches average 25.2 total games, which is why his leads have often not closed out in minimum time. The 15 matches span 30 July to 20 September and exclude no retirements.
- Scorelines over 15 clay matches: 2-0 five times, 2-1 five times, 1-2 twice, 0-2 three times
- Sample dates: 30 July to 20 September 2026
- Seven of the 15 matches included a tiebreak
- Average 25.2 total games per match

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Monteiro has the better recent clay results and serve numbers, and he beat Petkovic on this surface earlier in the month.
- Monteiro is 10-5 on clay over his last 15 completed matches; Petkovic is 5-10
- Monteiro saves 63.5% of break points and lands 64.1% of first serves; Petkovic saves 49.4% and lands 54.4%
- Monteiro won their 2 September clay meeting 6-1 4-6 6-2
- Monteiro is ranked 282, Petkovic 449
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonThiago Moura MonteiroEstimated chance73%

Games4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Petkovic keeps games competitive even in defeat, and Monteiro's frequent deciders tend to compress the final margin.
- Petkovic wins 48.1% of clay games against Monteiro's 53.7%
- Petkovic has taken a set in 4 of his last 10 defeats
- Monteiro's three-set matches average close game margins
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMika Petkovic +3.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Opening-set game averages for both players sit around ten, so a longer first set is slightly more likely.
- Monteiro's opening sets average 10.2 games on clay
- Petkovic's opening sets average 9.73 games on clay
- Monteiro has played four first-set tiebreaks in 15 clay matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Both players regularly go past 23 games, with a large share of their clay matches reaching a decider.
- Monteiro's clay matches average 25.2 total games; Petkovic's average 24.1
- Monteiro has played seven three-set matches in his last 15 on clay
- Petkovic has played six three-setters in his last 15 on clay
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 23.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets for both players average around ten games, making the over marginally favoured.
- Petkovic's second sets average 10.13 games on clay
- Monteiro's second sets average 9.93 games on clay
- Petkovic has played two second-set tiebreaks in his last 15 clay matches
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance53%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Monteiro starts clay matches better and took the opening set comfortably in the recent head-to-head.
- Monteiro has won the opening set in 8 of 15 clay matches; Petkovic in 4 of 15
- Monteiro took the first set 6-1 in their September meeting
- Monteiro averages 5.47 games won in set1 on clay, Petkovic 4.47
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonThiago Moura MonteiroEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Monteiro's second-set record is the stronger of the two and his serving held up across the recent meeting.
- Monteiro has won the second set in 9 of 15 clay matches; Petkovic in 8 of 15
- Monteiro averages 5.27 games won in set2 on clay
- Monteiro won the deciding third set 6-2 in their September meeting
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostThiago Moura MonteiroEstimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Petkovic's habit of losing the first set and fading in straight sets makes a two-set finish the likelier outcome.
- Petkovic has lost 0-2 in 6 of 15 clay matches
- Monteiro has won 2-0 in 5 of 15 clay matches
- Petkovic wins only 4 of 15 opening sets on clay
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance56%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Monteiro's reliable first-serve percentage limits double faults, and the combined average falls just under the line.
- Monteiro averages 2.5 double faults per match on clay
- The combined recent average of about 6.2 sits under the line
- Monteiro served 38 double faults in 15 clay matches against Petkovic's 56
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 6.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks appear in fewer than half of these players' recent clay matches, so no tiebreak is the slightly better-supported side.
- Neither player's recent clay matches reached a tiebreak more than half the time
- Petkovic has played only 6 tiebreak matches in 15; Monteiro 7
- Their September meeting ended without a tiebreak
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two players' combined ace rate sits just above the line, driven mostly by Monteiro's left-handed serve.
- Monteiro averages 3.7 aces per match on clay, Petkovic 2.1
- Combined recent average is about 5.8 aces per match
- Monteiro landed 55 aces in his last 15 clay matches
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance53%

Previous match context available

Mika Petkovic

5W 10L

7-6(7) 6-3#213Felix Gill

7-6(8) 6-4#146Andrea Pellegrino

6-3 3-6 7-6(7)#494Federico Arnaboldi

6-2 6-2#680Daniel Salazar Martinez

6-1 4-6 6-2#282Thiago Moura Monteiro

4-6 7-5 7-5#360Tiago Torres

7-6(5) 6-1#584Federico Iannaccone

7-5 7-5#668Tim Handel

2-6 6-4 6-3—Carlos Giraldi

6-3 6-2#1294Tim Heger

0-6 6-4 6-3#489Niels Mcdonald

6-4 6-7(4) 7-6(10)#687Nikolai Barsukov

6-4 6-3#392Daniel Elahi Galan

6-4 7-5#542Adrian Oetzbach

6-2 7-6(3)#238Henri Squire

Thiago Moura Monteiro

10W 5L

4-6 6-3 7-6(6)#233Nikolas Sanchez-Izquierdo 6-4 3-6 6-3#99Marco Trungelliti

6-4 6-2#188Diego Dedura

6-7(3) 6-4 7-6(3)#182Vitaliy Sachko

6-3 7-6(3)#158Stefano Travaglia

6-3 6-4#220Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

6-7(4) 6-3 7-6(5)#312Max Hans Rehberg

6-4 6-3#123Gustavo Heide

6-1 4-6 6-2#449Mika Petkovic

6-4 6-2#223Kimmer Coppejans

6-3 6-7(5) 6-4#166Tom Gentzsch

6-2 6-4#380Tommaso Compagnucci

6-7(2) 6-4 6-4#453Ivan Gakhov

7-6(7) 7-6(5)#119Vilius Gaubas

6-3 6-2#146Andrea Pellegrino

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MPMika PetkovicPetkovic

Last 15

0–7

9 core stats · 2 even

Thiago Moura MonteiroMonteiroTM

Thiago Moura Monteiro carries the stronger recent form — Mika Petkovic's route runs through 2nd serve won.

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

1st Serve In54.4%+9.7pp64.1%

1st Serve Won71.5%+1.1pp72.6%

2nd Serve Won52.1%—51.7%

Aces / Match2.1+1.63.7

Double Faults / Match3.71.2 fewer2.5

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won36.2%—36.9%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted39.0%+3.9pp42.9%

Break Pts Saved49.4%+14.1pp63.5%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.2%+2.2pp51.4%

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

54.4%1st Serve In+9.7pp64.1%

71.5%1st Serve Won+1.1pp72.6%

52.1%2nd Serve Won—51.7%

2.1Aces / Match+1.63.7

3.7Double Faults / Match1.2 fewer2.5

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

36.2%Return Pts Won—36.9%

Pressure · 0–2

39.0%Break Pts Converted+3.9pp42.9%

49.4%Break Pts Saved+14.1pp63.5%

Points · 0–1

49.2%Total Pts Won+2.2pp51.4%

Mika Petkovic #449Germany2Thiago Moura Monteiro #282Brazil1

Player Profiles

Mika Petkovic

Thiago Monteiro

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Mika Petkovic +3.5

Over 23.5

Over 2.5

Mika Petkovic

Mika Petkovic

Thiago Moura Monteiro

Thiago Moura Monteiro 2-0

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games4 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Mika Petkovic

Thiago Moura Monteiro

Stat Battle