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Predictions graded

Ozan Baris #420United States2Alex Rybakov #499United States1

Sets 1-6 · 6-3 · 6-4Mon 21 Sept 2026, 18:11 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions5–456%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageOzan Baris · 79 places

Ozan Baris

United States

Limited reliable public profile information found beyond his current ranking. Ranked No. 420 and plays right-handed with a two-handed backhand, listed at 1.85 m.

Current ranking: #420
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Alex Rybakov

United States

Limited reliable public profile information found beyond his current ranking. Ranked No. 499 and plays left-handed with a one-handed backhand, listed at 1.85 m.

Current ranking: #499
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Sep 2026, 11:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Baris brings the better hard-court record into this third-round qualifying match, but Rybakov has won 8 of his last 11 first sets, which is the awkward part.

Baris is the likely winner, and the 1.65 on him is the one quoted price that offers anything; a small edge, not a bargain. The 1.73 on him taking the opening set does not.

Context

Rybakov, a left-hander with a one-handed backhand, has been the faster starter of the two in this window.
Baris has won 9 of 15 first sets himself, so this is not a mismatch, but Rybakov's opening-set numbers are the clearest route to an uncomfortable start for the favourite. The sample is 11 completed hard-court matches and excludes one retirement.
- Rybakov won 8 of 11 first sets in completed hard-court matches between 16 June and 20 September 2026.
- Across that 11-match sample he averaged 5.73 first-set games won against 3.82 lost.
- One retired match is excluded from the sample, so the figures cover completed matches only.
Baris arrives with the deeper recent hard-court body of work of the two, 15 completed matches in that window.
That straight-set majority supports a shorter match, and his average of 2.33 sets per match is the smaller figure of the two records here. Rybakov's first-set strength is the obvious way this stretches to a decider, and five of Baris's 15 matches did go the distance, so it is a lean rather than a habit.
- Baris's 15 completed hard-court matches between 18 July and 20 September 2026 produced scorelines of 2-0 seven times, 2-1 four times, 0-2 three times and 1-2 once.
- Those matches averaged 2.33 sets and 21.47 total games.
Baris arrives having conceded just three games in his latest completed match.
Mitsui was ranked 531, below both men in this qualifying round, so the margin says more about a clean day than about the level of opposition. It does leave Baris with a short outing and no three-set workload immediately before this match.
- Baris beat Shunsuke Mitsui (ranked 531) 6-1 6-2 on 20 September 2026 in a completed hard-court match.
- It is his most recent completed match listed before this fixture.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Baris has the stronger hard-court record, higher ranking and better overall point and game percentages, making him the likely winner.
- Ozan Baris is 11-4 on hard courts over his last 15 completed matches, including 7 straight-set wins.
- Rybakov is 5-6 on hard courts over his last 11 completed matches.
- Baris has won 53.1% of total points and 55.3% of games on hard courts this span.
- Baris holds a higher ranking (420 vs 499) and better recent form.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonOzan BarisEstimated chance67%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-set totals trend just under the line for both players.
- Baris's second sets average 9.27 total games.
- Rybakov's second sets average 9.18 total games.
- Baris's second-set games won average is 5.07 vs 4.20 lost.
- Rybakov's second-set games won average is 4.64 vs 4.55 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches average just above the line, so a slightly longer match is marginally more likely.
- Baris's last six matches averaged 22.0 total games.
- Rybakov's last six matches averaged 21.83 total games.
- Baris's hard-court matches average 21.47 total games.
- Rybakov's hard-court matches average 22.09 total games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined first-set average is close to the line, and few tiebreaks keep many sets short.
- Baris's first sets average 8.93 total games.
- Rybakov's first sets average 9.55 total games.
- Baris has won first sets by 6-1 or 6-2 in several recent matches.
- Only 1 first-set tiebreak in 26 combined hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set results are the clear majority for both players on hard courts.
- Baris has won or lost in straight sets in 10 of 15 hard-court matches.
- Rybakov has won or lost in straight sets in 7 of 11 hard-court matches.
- Baris's average sets per match is 2.33.
- Rybakov's average sets per match is 2.36.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance71%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Baris is stronger in second sets, with a higher win rate and better game differential.
- Baris has won 10 of 15 second sets on hard courts (66.7%).
- Rybakov has won 6 of 11 second sets (54.5%).
- Baris averages 5.07 second-set games won to 4.20 lost.
- Rybakov averages 4.64 second-set games won to 4.55 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonOzan BarisEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Baris's overall edge is slight, but Rybakov's stronger first-set numbers keep this close.
- Baris has won 9 of 15 first sets on hard courts (60%).
- Rybakov has won 8 of 11 first sets on hard courts (72.7%).
- Baris averages 4.87 games won and 4.07 lost in first sets.
- Rybakov averages 5.73 games won and 3.82 lost in first sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostOzan BarisEstimated chance54%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The large majority of both players' recent hard-court matches have no tiebreak.
- Baris has avoided tiebreaks in 14 of 15 hard-court matches.
- Rybakov has avoided tiebreaks in 8 of 11 hard-court matches.
- Only 4 matches with a tiebreak across 26 combined hard-court matches.
- Both players average under 10 games per set.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance82%

Previous match context available

Ozan Baris

11W 4L

6-1 6-2#531Shunsuke Mitsui

6-4 4-6 6-4#522Evan Zhu

6-4 4-6 6-2#880Lorenzo Claverie

6-3 6-4—Nikita Filin

6-2 1-6 6-3#874Luca Pow

6-1 6-3—Mitchell Sheldon

6-0 6-2#194Edas Butvilas

6-4 7-5#200Liam Broady

6-4 6-2#746Vignesh Gogineni

2-6 6-3 6-4#298Johannus Monday

6-3 6-1#866Maxwell Exsted

5-7 7-6(5) 7-5#859Oliver Bonding

6-1 6-2—Nikita Filin

6-3 6-2#339Mees Rottgering

7-5 7-5#863Aleksa Ciric

Alex Rybakov

6W 9L

6-3 6-4#748Karue Sell

7-6(6) 6-3#672Ryan Seggerman

6-4 6-2#639Dan Martin

5-7 6-4 6-3#859Oliver Bonding

7-5 6-3#255Charles Broom

6-1 7-6(0)#536Fares Zakaria

6-2 3-6 6-1#302Oliver Tarvet

7-5 6-2—Billy Blaydes

6-3 6-3#895Matthew Summers

0-6 6-3 7-6(3)#900Charlie Robertson

3-6 6-4 6-3#181Andre Ilagan

6-4 7-6(8)#350Tung-Lin Wu

7-6(3) 5-2 ret.#501Hiroki Moriya

1-6 6-1 6-2#621Bruno Kuzuhara

6-2 1-6 6-3—Joaquim Almeida

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

OBOzan BarisBaris

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Alex RybakovRybakovAR

Ozan Baris carries the stronger recent form — Alex Rybakov's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In61.2%+10.4pp71.6%

1st Serve Won73.3%+3.7pp69.6%

2nd Serve Won52.6%+4.1pp48.5%

Aces / Match3.3+3.36.6

Double Faults / Match2.00.3 fewer2.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won42.1%+3.7pp38.4%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted40.3%+6.6pp33.7%

Break Pts Saved61.0%+7.5pp68.5%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.1%+2.4pp50.7%

Serve · 3–2

61.2%1st Serve In+10.4pp71.6%

73.3%1st Serve Won+3.7pp69.6%

52.6%2nd Serve Won+4.1pp48.5%

3.3Aces / Match+3.36.6

2.0Double Faults / Match0.3 fewer2.3

Return · 1–0

42.1%Return Pts Won+3.7pp38.4%

Pressure · 1–1

40.3%Break Pts Converted+6.6pp33.7%

61.0%Break Pts Saved+7.5pp68.5%

Points · 1–0

53.1%Total Pts Won+2.4pp50.7%

Ozan Baris

Alex Rybakov

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Ozan Baris

Ozan Baris

Ozan Baris 2-0

Ozan Baris

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Ozan Baris

Alex Rybakov

Stat Battle