United StatesSan Diego - USAFinished

Predictions graded

Braden Shick #202United States0Patrick Maloney #864United States2

Sets 3-6 · 6-7Mon 21 Sept 2026, 22:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions3–633%

Edges0–30%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageBraden Shick · 662 places

Braden Shick

United States

Right-handed with a two-handed backhand, currently ranked No. 202. Fourteen of the last fifteen tracked matches came on hard courts. Beyond the structured tour record, no further reliable profile detail was found.

Current ranking: #202
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Patrick Maloney

United States

Right-handed with a two-handed backhand, currently ranked No. 864. Ten of the last fifteen tracked matches came on hard courts. Beyond the structured tour record, no further reliable profile detail was found.

Current ranking: #864
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Sep 2026, 11:22 · Europe/Bucharest

A 662-place ranking gap says Braden Shick should handle Patrick Maloney in this San Diego first round, and Maloney's 2-9 second-set record on hard over 11 tracked matches backs that up.

Shick to win at 1.36, Shick to take the second set at 1.44 and Shick 2-0 at 1.9 all demand more than their chances justify, so none of the reviewed prices is worth taking.

Context

Maloney's first-set record in the same 11-match sample is 6-5, so his trouble comes after the opening set rather than at the first ball.
That split matters in a best-of-three first round: even if the opening set is close, the second set is where Maloney's hard-court results have gone badly, and it is the part of the match where Shick's own record is strongest.
- Patrick Maloney went 2-9 in second sets across 11 tracked hard-court matches from 15 September 2025 to 16 September 2026.
- He lost 0-2 in five of those 11 matches; his other scorelines were 2-1 three times, 1-2 once and 2-0 twice.
- One retirement was excluded from that sample.
His first sets in that sample sit at 6-7 while his second sets are 9-4, so the extra games have tended to arrive after a slow start.
A first round against a much lower-ranked opponent can still stretch if Shick is taken to a decider, as happened in five of his 13 tracked hard-court matches, so a longer match remains plausible even in a contest he is favoured to win.
- Shick's 13 tracked hard-court matches averaged 23.5 total games, from 19 June to 16 September 2026.
- Five of the 13 went to three sets (2-1 three times, 1-2 twice).
- Four of the 13 featured a tiebreak, and one retirement was excluded from the sample.
It followed a straight-sets win over Erik Arutiunian (594) on 15 September, so it is the one blemish on an otherwise settled week.
A three-set loss to a player ranked just below him is the most recent reminder that Shick can be extended and that a modestly ranked opponent can take a set, even though the gap he faces in this first round is far wider.
- Shick lost 4-6, 7-6, 4-6 to Jeff Wolf (ranked 218) on 16 September 2026, taking 15 games to Wolf's 18.
Two days later he lost in straight sets to Michael Mmoh (148), so his recent form has come in short bursts.
The Gray win shows Maloney can stay with a higher-ranked opponent into a third set, which is the main reason the ranking gap alone should not be read as a quick, one-sided first round.
- Maloney won 6-3, 5-7, 7-6 against Alastair Gray (ranked 286) on 14 September 2026, taking 18 games to Gray's 16.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Braden Shick

1.36fair 1.37

BetBugs 73% · Market 73.5%

−0.5ppshort

Shick sits far higher in the rankings, has the better hard-court record in this window, and holds up much better in second sets, which points to him controlling this first-round match.

Set 2 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Braden Shick

1.44fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 69.4%

−1.4ppshort

The second set is where the two records diverge most, with Shick winning most of his and Maloney losing most of his.

Set BettinglostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Braden Shick 2-0

1.90fair 2.08

BetBugs 48% · Market 52.6%

−4.6ppshort

A straight-set Shick win fits the ranking gap and Maloney's habit of losing the second set heavily.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Shick sits far higher in the rankings, has the better hard-court record in this window, and holds up much better in second sets, which points to him controlling this first-round match.
- Shick is ranked 202; Maloney is ranked 864.
- Shick is 8-5 on hard in the tracked window; Maloney is 5-6.
- Shick's hard-court set2 record is 9-4; Maloney's is 2-9.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBraden ShickEstimated chance73%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' hard-court matches sit right around this line, with enough three-set and tiebreak matches to keep the total near or above 23 games.
- Shick's hard-court matches average 23.5 games.
- Maloney's hard-court matches average 22.4 games.
- Shick has played three-setters in 5 of 13 tracked hard matches; Maloney in 4 of 11.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 22.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets for both players sit close to ten games on average, with enough break-and-hold exchanges to edge past the line.
- Shick's first sets average 10.2 games on hard.
- Maloney's first sets average 9.4 games on hard.
- Shick has played three first-set tiebreaks in 13 tracked hard matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-set length for both players hovers right at this line, making the over a marginal lean.
- Shick's second sets average 9.6 games on hard.
- Maloney's second sets average 9.5 games on hard.
- Each player has one second-set tiebreak in the tracked hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
The second set is where the two records diverge most, with Shick winning most of his and Maloney losing most of his.
- Shick is 9-4 in second sets on hard.
- Maloney is 2-9 in second sets on hard.
- Maloney lost the second set in 9 of 11 tracked hard matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostBraden ShickEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Shick's ranking and overall level make him the likelier first-set winner even though his own first-set record is narrowly negative.
- Shick is 6-7 in first sets on hard.
- Maloney is 6-5 in first sets on hard.
- Shick is ranked 202 against Maloney's 864.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostBraden ShickEstimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' tracked hard-court matches usually end in straight sets, and the ranking difference makes a two-set result the more likely shape.
- Shick's hard-court matches average 2.38 sets.
- Maloney's hard-court matches average 2.36 sets.
- Shick closed 2-0 in 5 of 13 hard matches; Maloney lost 0-2 in 5 of 11.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of these two players' recent hard-court matches finished without a tiebreak, making a match without one the more likely outcome.
- Shick had no tiebreak in 9 of 13 tracked hard matches.
- Maloney had no tiebreak in 8 of 11 tracked hard matches.
- Both players' straight-set results often include lopsided sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance67%

Prediction history

Braden Shick: 4/6 recent winner projections matched

4 of 6 comparable winner projections favouring Braden Shick matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Braden Shick6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

31 Jul·Vancouver - Canada

#189Mark Lajal2-0#234Braden Shick

BetBugsBraden Shick to win·58%

Missed

31 Jul 2026

Vancouver - Canada

#189Mark Lajal2-0#234Braden Shick

Braden Shick to win

58%probability

Mark Lajal won

Missed

29 Jul·Vancouver - Canada

#227August Holmgren1-2#234Braden Shick

BetBugsBraden Shick to win·58%

Matched

29 Jul 2026

Vancouver - Canada

#227August Holmgren1-2#234Braden Shick

Braden Shick to win

58%probability

Braden Shick won

Matched

27 Jul·Vancouver - Canada

#234Braden Shick2-1#900Benjamin Thomas George

BetBugsBraden Shick to win·78%

Matched

27 Jul 2026

Vancouver - Canada

#234Braden Shick2-1#900Benjamin Thomas George

Braden Shick to win

78%probability

Braden Shick won

Matched

8 Jul·Newport - USA

#204Bernard Tomic2-0#325Braden Shick

BetBugsBraden Shick to win·62%

Missed

8 Jul 2026

Newport - USA

#204Bernard Tomic2-0#325Braden Shick

Braden Shick to win

62%probability

Bernard Tomic won

Missed

2 Jul·Cary - USA

#325Braden Shick2-0#475Dhakshineswar Suresh

BetBugsBraden Shick to win·62%

Matched

2 Jul 2026

Cary - USA

#325Braden Shick2-0#475Dhakshineswar Suresh

Braden Shick to win

62%probability

Braden Shick won

Matched

Braden Shick

9W 6L

6-4 6-7(5) 6-4#218Jeff Wolf

6-3 6-4#594Erik Arutiunian

6-4 6-1#125Shintaro Mochizuki

6-4 7-5#160Clement Tabur

6-2 6-2#143Mark Lajal

6-2 6-3#206Andres Andrade

6-7(5) 6-3 6-3#242August Holmgren

6-7(5) 6-2 7-5#900Benjamin Thomas George

5-7 6-3 6-2#221Rio Noguchi

6-2 6-3#182Bernard Tomic

4-6 7-5 6-3#410Timo Legout

7-6(6) 6-4#258Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-4 4-1 ret.#359Dhakshineswar Suresh

6-1 6-2#314Fajing Sun

6-3 6-4#431Andrew Fenty

Patrick Maloney

7W 8L

7-5 6-3#148Michael Mmoh

6-3 5-7 7-6(3)#286Alastair Gray

5-2 ret.#602Bryce Nakashima

6-2 6-3#513Evan Zhu

6-1 3-6 6-3#297Johannus Monday

6-3 3-6 6-3—Tygen Goldammer

4-6 6-3 6-2#513Evan Zhu

6-3 7-6(9)#500Hiroki Moriya

7-6(4) 6-3#113Yibing Wu

3-6 6-3 6-4#442Garrett Johns

6-3 6-4#249Hayato Matsuoka

6-3 6-3#336Philip Sekulic

6-2 6-4#399Blaise Bicknell

6-2 6-3#446James Kent Trotter

6-4 6-0#352Petr Brunclik

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

BSBraden ShickShick

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Patrick MaloneyMaloneyPM

Braden Shick carries the stronger recent form — Patrick Maloney's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In57.6%+6.5pp64.1%

1st Serve Won68.2%+0.9pp69.1%

2nd Serve Won54.6%+7.7pp46.9%

Aces / Match5.1+0.94.2

Double Faults / Match2.80.5 fewer3.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won38.4%+1.5pp36.9%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted44.7%—44.7%

Break Pts Saved62.9%+1.4pp61.5%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won50.8%+1.2pp49.6%

Serve · 3–2

57.6%1st Serve In+6.5pp64.1%

68.2%1st Serve Won+0.9pp69.1%

54.6%2nd Serve Won+7.7pp46.9%

5.1Aces / Match+0.94.2

2.8Double Faults / Match0.5 fewer3.3

Return · 1–0

38.4%Return Pts Won+1.5pp36.9%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

44.7%Break Pts Converted—44.7%

62.9%Break Pts Saved+1.4pp61.5%

Points · 1–0

50.8%Total Pts Won+1.2pp49.6%