August Holmgren #22711 – 2Braden Shick #234United States2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.75

The read

Shick's superior recent hard-court form, higher return efficiency, and better break point conversion give him a clear edge in this Bo3 opener.

• Shick's last15 overall record is 73.3% (11-4) vs Holmgren's 53.3% (8-7).
• On hard courts, Shick is 11-3 (78.6%) in last15, Holmgren 4-2 (66.7%) but with only 6 matches tracked.
• Shick's return points won on hard is 42.8% vs Holmgren's 37.5%, and break point conversion 49.6% vs 34.7%.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players frequently engage in extended matches on hard courts, making Over 21.5 games likely given their competitive recent form.

• Holmgren's last15 hard-court matches average 24.8 games per match, Shick's average 23.8.
• Both players have a high rate of three-set matches: Holmgren 4 of 6 on hard, Shick 5 of 14 on hard in last15.
• Holmgren's last five matches all went over 21.5 games, averaging 27.4 games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Solid serving and competitive starts from both players point to a tight first set, likely exceeding 9.5 games.

• Holmgren's last15 hard-court first sets average 10.2 games, with 4 of 6 going over 9.5.
• Shick's last15 hard-court first sets average 9.9 games, with 8 of 14 going over 9.5.
• Both players have strong serve hold percentages on hard: Holmgren 75.8% first-serve points won, Shick 68.5%.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Shick's superior return game and recent form give him a slight edge to cover a -1.5 game handicap in a likely close match.

• Shick's last15 hard-court game win percentage is 54.4% vs Holmgren's 55.8%, but Shick has a larger sample (14 vs 6 matches).
• Shick's return points won (42.8%) and break point conversion (49.6%) on hard are significantly better than Holmgren's (37.5%, 34.7%).
• Shick's overall last15 record is 11-4, Holmgren's 8-7.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Holmgren's tendency to play three-setters, combined with Shick's ability to push matches deep, makes Over 2.5 sets a solid probability.

• Holmgren's last15 hard-court matches went to three sets in 4 of 6 (66.7%).
• Shick's last15 hard-court matches went to three sets in 5 of 14 (35.7%), but his overall deciding set win rate is 65%.
• Holmgren's recent form shows 4 of his last 5 matches went the distance.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Holmgren's elevated double-fault count on hard courts, especially in pressure situations, pushes the combined total over 7.5.

• Holmgren averages 5.4 double faults per match overall in last15, 6.5 on hard.
• Shick averages 3.0 double faults per match overall in last15, 3.0 on hard.
• Combined average is 8.4 on hard, with Holmgren's high double-fault rate being the main driver.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

With a likely three-set match, total aces should surpass 12.5, driven by Holmgren's serving and extended play.

• Holmgren averages 7.1 aces per match overall in last15, 7.0 on hard.
• Shick averages 4.5 aces per match overall in last15, 4.3 on hard.
• Combined average aces per match: 11.4, but Holmgren's ace rate can spike in longer matches.