FranceRennes - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Francesco Maestrelli #166Italy0Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg #332France2

Sets 0-6 · 3-6Fri 18 Sept 2026, 19:20 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalI.hard

Predictions2–625%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFrancesco Maestrelli · 166 places

Francesco Maestrelli

Italy

Italian right-hander whose ATP bio lists hard courts as his favourite surface. He reached his career-high ranking of No. 108 in February 2026.

Current ranking: #166
Peak ranking: #108 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

France

Reached a career-high No. 193 on 17 November 2025. Profile listings identify hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #332
Peak ranking: #193 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Sep 2026, 03:18 · Europe/Bucharest

Maestrelli is a live underdog at 2.60: he leads the H2H 2-0 on hard/indoor hard, is ranked 169 vs 332, and is 2-0 this week in Rennes with 14 aces per match, while Gueymard Wayenburg's 9-6 form is inflated by wins over ranks 331 and 625.

Back Maestrelli outright and lean Over 21.5 games, Over 12.5 aces and a tiebreak, avoiding the short-priced French favourite.

Context

Gueymard Wayenburg, 332nd, is a French right-hander whose 2026 season has been split between clay and indoor hard. Maestrelli, 169th, is an Italian right-hander with a career clay lean but a stronger hard-court record in 2026.
Gueymard Wayenburg's 60% win rate over the last 15 matches is the stronger recent record, and he has won more sets and games than Maestrelli in that window. Maestrelli's overall 33% win rate is the weaker side, though his two most recent wins came this week in Rennes. The form edge points to Gueymard Wayenburg, but the gap is not large enough to be decisive.
- Gueymard Wayenburg: 9-6 record, 56.8% sets won, 51.6% games won in last 15 matches.
- Maestrelli: 5-10 record, 43.6% sets won, 48.5% games won in last 15 matches.
- Maestrelli won his last two matches in Rennes (rounds 4 and 5) on indoor hard.
Maestrelli, 169th, is a 196cm right-hander whose career serve numbers are modest but whose indoor hard results in 2026 include a 2-0 record.
In two indoor hard matches, Maestrelli averaged 14 aces and saved 73% of break points, far above his overall last-15 averages of 7.9 aces and 65.6% break points saved. Gueymard Wayenburg has also won both his indoor hard matches in the window, with 6.5 aces per match and 100% break points saved from a single opportunity. The two-match sample limits how much weight this can carry, but Maestrelli's serve has been a clear strength in his Rennes run.
- Maestrelli on indoor hard (last 15): 2-0, 14 aces per match, 73.1% break points saved, 72.1% first serves in.
- Gueymard Wayenburg on indoor hard (last 15): 2-0, 6.5 aces per match, 100% break points saved (1/1).
- Maestrelli's overall last-15 averages: 7.9 aces per match, 65.6% break points saved.
Maestrelli and Gueymard Wayenburg have met twice on the professional tour, both times on hard or indoor hard courts.
Maestrelli won their 2025 indoor hard meeting 6-2 1-6 6-1 and their 2024 hard-court match 7-6(11) 7-6(2). In those two matches, Maestrelli converted 60% of break points and won 65% of second-serve points, while Gueymard Wayenburg double-faulted eight times. The head-to-head record favors Maestrelli, but both matches were competitive and the most recent was nearly a year ago.
- Maestrelli leads H2H 2-0: 6-2 1-6 6-1 (2025, indoor hard) and 7-6(11) 7-6(2) (2024, hard).
- H2H stats: Maestrelli 60% break points converted, 65% second-serve points won; Gueymard Wayenburg 8 double faults.
- Both meetings were on hard or indoor hard surfaces.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.60
The read
Maestrelli's perfect H2H record plus superior ranking and strong current-week indoor-hard serving give him the edge, though Gueymard Wayenburg's better recent overall record keeps this only a medium-confidence call.
- H2H: Maestrelli leads 2-0, both wins on hard/indoor hard (6-2 1-6 6-1 in Nov 2025; 7-6(11) 7-6(2) in Nov 2024)
- Last-15 overall: Maestrelli 5-10 (33.3%) vs Gueymard Wayenburg 9-6 (60%), but Maestrelli's recent wins came this week on I.hard in Rennes (2-0, 4-1 sets)
- I.hard last-15 split: Maestrelli 2-0 with 14.0 aces/match and 72.1% first-serve in; Gueymard Wayenburg 2-0 with 88.7% first-serve points won
- Ranking: Maestrelli 169 vs Gueymard Wayenburg 332; career win% 53.8 vs 54.1
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFrancesco MaestrelliEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Maestrelli's long recent matches and tiebreak-heavy profile, plus a tiebreak-laden H2H, point to a drawn-out scoreline despite Gueymard Wayenburg's quicker recent wins.
- Maestrelli last-15 average match duration 132.3 minutes across 15 matches
- Maestrelli's two Rennes wins this week both went to a tiebreak set (7-6(3) twice)
- Gueymard Wayenburg last-15 average duration 106.7 minutes, but his two Rennes wins were straight sets
- H2H 2024 meeting produced two tiebreaks (7-6(11) 7-6(2))
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gueymard Wayenburg's superior recent game-winning rate and competitive H2H margins make a +3.5 game cushion reasonable even if Maestrelli wins outright.
- Gueymard Wayenburg last-15 games won 51.6% (189/366), slightly above Maestrelli's 48.5% (191/394)
- Gueymard Wayenburg last-15 record 9-6 (60%) vs Maestrelli 5-10 (33.3%)
- Maestrelli's Rennes wins this week were tight (7-6 sets, 4-6 7-6 6-3)
- H2H is 2-0 Maestrelli but both matches were competitive
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonSascha Gueymard Wayenburg +3.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Maestrelli's higher first-set conversion and H2H opening-set dominance, supported by stronger indoor first-serve percentages, tilt the opening set his way.
- Maestrelli career first-set win conversion 88% vs Gueymard Wayenburg 83%
- Maestrelli won opening set in both H2H meetings (6-2 in 2025; 7-6(11) in 2024)
- Maestrelli last-15 first-serve in 66.2% overall, 72.1% on I.hard this week
- Gueymard Wayenburg last-15 first-serve in only 56.6%, a recurring early-break risk
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostFrancesco MaestrelliEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Gueymard Wayenburg's stronger recent set-winning rate and Maestrelli's history of second-set lapses make the second set close to even, with a slight lean to the Frenchman.
- Gueymard Wayenburg last-15 sets won 56.8% (21/37) vs Maestrelli 43.6% (17/39)
- Maestrelli dropped the second set in the 2025 H2H (1-6)
- Gueymard Wayenburg last-15 first-serve points won 74.0% overall
- Maestrelli's second-set record this week includes a 7-6(3) and a 6-3
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonSascha Gueymard WayenburgEstimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Strong serving on both sides and a tiebreak-heavy recent and H2H pattern make at least one tiebreak likely in this indoor quarter-final.
- Maestrelli's two Rennes 2026 wins each included a 7-6 set
- H2H 2024 match featured two tiebreaks (7-6(11) 7-6(2))
- Maestrelli career tiebreak win% 55; Gueymard Wayenburg 47
- Both players' last-15 first-serve points won are high (69.4% and 74.0%), limiting breaks
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Two tall servers with strong indoor ace rates, and Maestrelli's elevated I.hard ace count this week, make the over a reasonable serve-profile play.
- Maestrelli last-15 overall 7.9 aces/match; on I.hard this week 14.0 aces/match (2 matches)
- Gueymard Wayenburg last-15 overall 6.8 aces/match; on I.hard 6.5 aces/match (2 matches)
- Maestrelli is 196cm with 1,893 career aces; Gueymard Wayenburg 191cm with 2,126 career aces
- H2H: Maestrelli 12 aces vs Gueymard Wayenburg 5 across two meetings
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 12.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gueymard Wayenburg's high career and recent double-fault rate, combined with Maestrelli's moderate rate, supports the over despite low indoor samples.
- Maestrelli last-15 3.7 double faults/match overall; 3.0/match on I.hard this week
- Gueymard Wayenburg last-15 4.3 double faults/match overall; 1.0/match on I.hard this week
- Gueymard Wayenburg career 1,474 double faults in 338 matches (4.4/match)
- H2H: Gueymard Wayenburg 8 double faults vs Maestrelli 2 across two meetings
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

2-0 (2 meetings)

W6-2 1-6 6-1Francesco Maestrelli#169vSascha Gueymard Wayenburg#332Nov 11, 2025

W7-6(11) 7-6(2)Francesco Maestrelli#169vSascha Gueymard Wayenburg#332Nov 1, 2024

2 total meetings

Previous match context available

Francesco Maestrelli

5W 10L

4-6 7-6(3) 6-3#547Yanis Ghazouani Durand 6-4 7-6(3)#357Arthur Nagel 6-0 2-6 6-1#231Maks Kasnikowski

6-7(2) 6-1 6-4#445Alafia Ayeni

6-2 6-2#378Juan Pablo Ficovich

6-7(2) 6-3 6-1#95Toby Samuel

6-4 7-6(4)#130Alexei Popyrin

7-6(6) 6-4#114Bu Yunchaokete

7-6(5) 4-6 6-3#190Juan Pablo Varillas

6-4 6-0#180Lukas Neumayer

6-3 6-7(8) 6-3#356Ognjen Milic

4-6 7-6(2) 6-4#219Max Basing

7-6(6) 7-5#176Alexis Galarneau

7-6(4) 3-6 6-1#63Arthur Gea

6-7(4) 6-2 6-4#223Kimmer Coppejans

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

9W 6L

6-4 6-4#331Ugo Blanchet 6-4 6-3#625Maxime Janvier

6-7(3) 6-3 6-4#140Mark Lajal

6-0 6-1#633Mae Malige

3-6 6-2 6-2#260Michele Ribecai

6-4 6-1#486Sergio Callejon Hernando

3-6 6-4 6-4#478Izan Almazan Valiente

6-4 6-4#228Guido Ivan Justo

6-7(5) 7-6(2) 6-2#304Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

7-6(4) 6-3#147Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

7-6(1) 7-5#284Jerome Kym

7-6(4) 4-6 6-3#519Alexander Donski

6-4 6-2#231Maks Kasnikowski

4-6 6-3 6-4#195Lautaro Midon

7-6(5) 3-6 6-3#161Max Alcala Gurri

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FMFrancesco MaestrelliMaestrelli

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Sascha Gueymard WayenburgWayenburgSW

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In66.2%+9.6pp56.6%

1st Serve Won69.4%+4.6pp74.0%

2nd Serve Won45.6%+2.7pp48.3%

Aces / Match7.9+1.16.8

Double Faults / Match3.70.6 fewer4.3

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won36.7%—37.2%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted38.5%+6.8pp45.3%

Break Pts Saved65.6%+1.2pp64.4%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.1%+1.5pp50.6%

Serve · 3–2

66.2%1st Serve In+9.6pp56.6%

69.4%1st Serve Won+4.6pp74.0%

45.6%2nd Serve Won+2.7pp48.3%

7.9Aces / Match+1.16.8

3.7Double Faults / Match0.6 fewer4.3

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

36.7%Return Pts Won—37.2%

Pressure · 1–1

38.5%Break Pts Converted+6.8pp45.3%

65.6%Break Pts Saved+1.2pp64.4%

Points · 0–1

49.1%Total Pts Won+1.5pp50.6%