FranceRennes - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg #332France2Ugo Blanchet #190France0

Sets 6-4 · 6-4Wed 16 Sept 2026, 19:55 Predictions gradedSecond RoundI.hard

Predictions4–450%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageUgo Blanchet · 142 places

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

France

Reached a career-high No. 193 on 17 November 2025. Profile listings identify hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #332
Peak ranking: #193 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Ugo Blanchet

France

Reached a career-high No. 139 on 30 September 2024. ATP lists hard as his favourite surface; the supplied structured profile ranks him No. 190.

Current ranking: #190
Peak ranking: #139 · 2024
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Sep 2026, 15:35 · Europe/Bucharest

Wayenburg has a slight edge on indoor hard and recent form, but Blanchet's stronger second serve keeps it close.

Betting value lies in Wayenburg to win at 2.20 and over 22.5 total games, with a likely tiebreak and potential three-setter.

Context

Gueymard Wayenburg, 332nd, has a 60% win rate on hard courts in his last five matches, with a 54.3% games-won percentage.
Blanchet's hard-court record is 50% over eight matches, but his games-won percentage is 51.8%, slightly higher than Gueymard Wayenburg's. The small sample sizes make this a modest edge for Gueymard Wayenburg, not a decisive factor.
- Gueymard Wayenburg's last 5 hard-court matches: 3 wins, 2 losses (60% win rate).
- Blanchet's last 8 hard-court matches: 4 wins, 4 losses (50% win rate).
- Gueymard Wayenburg won 54.3% of games on hard courts; Blanchet won 51.8%.
Blanchet's second-serve points won percentage is 59.8% over his last 15 matches, while Gueymard Wayenburg's is 48%.
This gap could matter in pressure moments, as Gueymard Wayenburg's second serve is more vulnerable. However, the match is on indoor hard, where both have limited recent data, so the overall trend may not fully translate.
- Blanchet's second-serve points won: 59.8% (352/589) in last 15 matches.
- Gueymard Wayenburg's second-serve points won: 48% (258/538) in last 15 matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg has a slight edge in recent form and surface fit on indoor hard, though Ugo Blanchet's stronger second serve keeps the match competitive.
- Home player won 8 of last 15 matches (53.3%) vs away player's 7 of 15 (46.7%).
- On indoor hard, home player has a 100% record in 1 match this window; away player also 100% in 1 match, but home player's overall hard-court record is 60% (3-2) vs away player's 50% (4-4).
- Home player's first-serve points won is 72.1% overall vs away player's 73.0%, but home player's second-serve points won is 48.0% vs away player's 59.8%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSascha Gueymard WayenburgEstimated chance55%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have been involved in lengthy matches recently, and their combined average games per match exceeds 22.5, supporting the over.
- Home player's last 15 matches averaged 24.4 games per match (366 total games / 15 matches).
- Away player's last 15 matches averaged 27.1 games per match (407 total games / 15 matches).
- Both players have a high percentage of three-set matches in recent form, with away player having 7 of 15 matches go to three sets.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be closely contested given both players' recent tendency for tight opening sets.
- Home player's recent first sets have often been close, with several tiebreaks and 7-5 scores.
- Away player's recent first sets include multiple 7-5 and 7-6 scores, indicating tight opening sets.
- Both players have similar first-serve points won percentages, suggesting competitive early games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ugo Blanchet's competitive recent form and strong second serve make him likely to keep the match close, covering the +3.5 game handicap.
- Away player's games won percentage in last 15 matches is 50.1%, nearly equal to home player's 50.3%.
- Away player has a stronger second-serve points won percentage (59.8% vs 48.0%).
- Away player's recent matches have been close, with many three-set battles.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostUgo Blanchet +3.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second set is also likely to be competitive, with both players showing resilience in recent matches.
- Home player's second sets in recent matches have varied, but many have gone to 10 or more games.
- Away player's second sets have often been competitive, with several 6-4 and 7-6 scores.
- Both players have similar break point save rates, indicating potential for extended sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With both players frequently going to three sets in recent matches, the probability of a deciding set is high.
- Home player's last 15 matches: 7 of 15 went to three sets (46.7%).
- Away player's last 15 matches: 7 of 15 went to three sets (46.7%).
- Both players have similar deciding set win percentages (home 46%, away 53%), indicating competitive matches.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg's recent straight-set wins and solid serve on indoor hard give him a slight edge in the opening set.
- Home player's first-set win conversion is 83% career, but recent first-set performance is not directly available.
- Home player won 6 of last 15 matches in straight sets, showing ability to start strong.
- Away player's first-set win conversion is 87% career, but recent form shows more three-set matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonSascha Gueymard WayenburgEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Given the competitive nature of both players' recent matches and their history of tiebreaks, a tiebreak is likely.
- Home player's recent matches include multiple tiebreaks (e.g., 7-6(3), 7-6(5), 7-6(4)).
- Away player's recent matches include several tiebreaks (e.g., 7-6(4), 7-6(3), 7-6(4)).
- Both players have tiebreak win percentages around 47-54%, indicating frequent tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have solid ace counts, and the indoor hard surface typically favors serving, pushing the total slightly over 12.5.
- Home player averages 6.6 aces per match in last 15 matches.
- Away player averages 5.7 aces per match in last 15 matches.
- Combined average aces per match is 12.3, close to the 12.5 line.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 12.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault average is slightly above 7.5, and indoor hard conditions may lead to more double faults.
- Home player averages 4.6 double faults per match in last 15 matches.
- Away player averages 3.1 double faults per match in last 15 matches.
- Combined average double faults per match is 7.7, just above the 7.5 line.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg has been moderately reliable when projected to win

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg has fulfilled 2 of 4 recent win projections. His average estimated probability was 60.5%, with an expected 2.4 fulfilled predictions, so he slightly underperformed. Both missed projections ended in losses, and his current 55% probability sits within his historical range of 55–65%.

Recent evidence for Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

23 Jul·Tampere - Finland

#268Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg1-2#318Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

BetBugsSascha Gueymard Wayenburg to win·55%

Missed

23 Jul 2026

Tampere - Finland

#268Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg1-2#318Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg to win

55%probability

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes won

Missed

7 Jul·Iasi - Romania

#283Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg2-1#528Alexander Donski

BetBugsSascha Gueymard Wayenburg to win·62%

Matched

7 Jul 2026

Iasi - Romania

#283Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg2-1#528Alexander Donski

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg to win

62%probability

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg won

Matched

22 Jun·Targu Mures - Romania

#278Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg2-0#609Gabriel Ghetu

BetBugsSascha Gueymard Wayenburg to win·65%

Matched

22 Jun 2026

Targu Mures - Romania

#278Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg2-0#609Gabriel Ghetu

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg to win

65%probability

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg won

Matched

29 Apr·Aix-en-Provence - France

#93Roberto Bautista-Agut2-0#262Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

BetBugsSascha Gueymard Wayenburg to win·60%

Missed

29 Apr 2026

Aix-en-Provence - France

#93Roberto Bautista-Agut2-0#262Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg to win

60%probability

Roberto Bautista-Agut won

Missed

Previous match context available

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

8W 7L

6-4 6-3#625Maxime Janvier

6-7(3) 6-3 6-4#140Mark Lajal

6-0 6-1#633Mae Malige

3-6 6-2 6-2#260Michele Ribecai

6-4 6-1#486Sergio Callejon Hernando

3-6 6-4 6-4#478Izan Almazan Valiente

6-4 6-4#228Guido Ivan Justo

6-7(5) 7-6(2) 6-2#304Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

7-6(4) 6-3#147Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

7-6(1) 7-5#284Jerome Kym

7-6(4) 4-6 6-3#519Alexander Donski

6-4 6-2#231Maks Kasnikowski

4-6 6-3 6-4#195Lautaro Midon

7-6(5) 3-6 6-3#161Max Alcala Gurri

6-2 7-5#161Max Alcala Gurri

Ugo Blanchet

7W 8L

7-5 7-6(4)#224Billy Harris 2-6 6-4 7-6(3)#363Daniel Masur

6-3 3-6 6-3#253Daniel Rincon

6-3 6-3#382Laurent Lokoli

6-4 6-4#108Otto Virtanen

6-4 3-6 6-2#136Stefanos Sakellaridis

6-7(3) 6-2 7-5#897James Watt

6-4 4-6 7-6(4)#283Stefano Napolitano

6-7(3) 7-6(6) 7-6(3)#135Rei Sakamoto

6-3 6-3#302Oliver Tarvet

6-7(5) 7-6(2) 6-4#213Felix Gill

6-4 6-2#143Pablo Llamas Ruiz

4-6 7-6(9) 6-4#255Charles Broom

6-3 7-6(2)#576Pierre Delage

6-1 5-7 6-2#433Maxime Chazal

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

SWSascha Gueymard WayenburgWayenburg

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Ugo BlanchetBlanchetUB

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In56.6%+3.8pp52.8%

1st Serve Won72.1%+0.9pp73.0%

2nd Serve Won48.0%+11.8pp59.8%

Aces / Match6.6+0.95.7

Double Faults / Match4.61.5 fewer3.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won37.0%+1.8pp35.2%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted41.8%+12.5pp29.3%

Break Pts Saved65.0%+2.9pp67.9%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won49.9%—50.5%

Serve · 2–3

56.6%1st Serve In+3.8pp52.8%

72.1%1st Serve Won+0.9pp73.0%

48.0%2nd Serve Won+11.8pp59.8%

6.6Aces / Match+0.95.7

4.6Double Faults / Match1.5 fewer3.1

Return · 1–0

37.0%Return Pts Won+1.8pp35.2%

Pressure · 1–1

41.8%Break Pts Converted+12.5pp29.3%

65.0%Break Pts Saved+2.9pp67.9%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

49.9%Total Pts Won—50.5%