FranceRennes - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Francesco Maestrelli #166Italy2Yanis Ghazouani Durand #584France1

Sets 4-6 · 7-6 · 6-3Thu 17 Sept 2026, 11:40 Predictions gradedSecond RoundI.hard

Predictions5–363%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFrancesco Maestrelli · 418 places

Francesco Maestrelli

Italy

Italian right-hander whose ATP bio lists hard courts as his favourite surface. He reached his career-high ranking of No. 108 in February 2026.

Current ranking: #166
Peak ranking: #108 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Yanis Ghazouani Durand

France

Ghazouani Durand, 26, is the 183cm right-hander in this matchup. He identified hard courts as his preferred surface in July 2026.

Current ranking: #584
Peak ranking: #565 · 2026
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Sep 2026, 19:15 · Europe/Bucharest

Yanis Ghazouani Durand is in far better form than Francesco Maestrelli, with superior return stats and a perfect recent indoor hard court record.

Back Ghazouani Durand to win outright at 3.20 odds, as our model gives him a 58% chance, creating a 26.7-point edge.

Context

Ghazouani Durand, 547th, has been competing mostly at Challenger and ITF level and is on a three-match winning run on indoor hard.
His 73.3% win rate over the last 15 matches contrasts sharply with Maestrelli's 26.7%. Ghazouani Durand also wins a higher share of return points (45.3% vs 36.6%), which could give him more break chances. However, his opponents in that sample were mostly ranked outside the top 300, so the form gap may narrow against a higher-ranked player.
- Ghazouani Durand last 15: 11-4 record (73.3%), Maestrelli: 4-11 (26.7%).
- Ghazouani Durand return points won: 45.3%, Maestrelli: 36.6%.
- Ghazouani Durand's recent wins include three straight on indoor hard this week.
Ghazouani Durand, 22, is the lower-ranked player at No. 547 but has won four of his last five tracked matches, including three straight at this event.
He has played three matches in three days, with two deciding-set qualifying wins before a straight-set first-round victory. That accumulated load could leave him less fresh than Maestrelli, who has played only one main-draw match, but his recent form suggests he is handling the workload well.
- He beat Gijs Brouwer 6-3, 2-6, 6-4 in the first qualifying round on September 13.
- He beat Nikola Slavic 4-6, 6-3, 6-2 in the final qualifying round on September 14.
- He beat Léo Raquillet 6-1, 6-4 in the first round on September 15.
- Stored recent sample: 4 wins from 5 tracked matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 19:14 · Europe/BucharestSofascore — Gijs Brouwer v Yanis Ghazouani Durandwww.sofascore.com · 13 Sep 2026Sofascore — Nikola Slavic v Yanis Ghazouani Durandwww.sofascore.com · 14 Sep 2026Tennis.com — Léo Raquillet v Yanis Ghazouani Durandwww.tennis.com · 15 Sep 2026
Ghazouani Durand has a career indoor hard record of 72-28 and has won all three indoor hard matches in his last 15.
On indoor hard, Ghazouani Durand has won 75% of sets and 59.2% of games in his last three matches, with a strong 53.3% second-serve win rate. Maestrelli's only indoor hard match in the last 15 was a win, but the sample is too small to confirm a trend. This surface edge could matter in a best-of-three indoor match.
- Ghazouani Durand indoor hard last 15: 3-0 record, 75% sets won, 59.2% games won.
- Maestrelli indoor hard last 15: 1-0 record, 100% sets won, 56.5% games won.
- Ghazouani Durand career indoor hard: 72-28.
Maestrelli, 169th, is a tall right-hander whose serve can produce free points but also errors.
His first-serve points won (69.9%) is higher than Ghazouani Durand's (67.5%), and his ace rate is more than double. However, his double-fault rate (4.2 per match) is similar to Ghazouani Durand's (4.8), so the serve advantage may be offset by inconsistency. If Maestrelli serves well, he can hold more easily, but second serves could be attacked.
- Maestrelli aces per match: 7.2, Ghazouani Durand: 2.9.
- Maestrelli first-serve points won: 69.9%, Ghazouani Durand: 67.5%.
- Maestrelli double faults per match: 4.2, Ghazouani Durand: 4.8.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 3.20
The read
Ghazouani Durand's superior recent form and return game give him the edge, despite Maestrelli's ranking advantage.
- Ghazouani Durand last 15 overall record: 11-4 (73.3%), Maestrelli 4-11 (26.7%)
- Ghazouani Durand last 15 return points won: 45.3%, Maestrelli 36.6%
- Ghazouani Durand last 15 break point conversion: 47.0%, Maestrelli 37.7%
- Ghazouani Durand I.hard last 15 record: 3-0 (100%), Maestrelli 1-0 (100%)
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostYanis Ghazouani DurandEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be closely contested given both players' competitive recent matches.
- Maestrelli last 15 first set average games: 9.7 (based on 15 matches)
- Ghazouani Durand last 15 first set average games: 9.3 (based on 15 matches)
- Both players have played multiple tiebreaks in recent first sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of the matchup and both players' tendency to play close sets support a higher total games line.
- Maestrelli last 15 average games per match: 25.9 (186+202 games / 15 matches)
- Ghazouani Durand last 15 average games per match: 22.1 (183+148 games / 15 matches)
- Both players have multiple three-set matches in recent form
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 22.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ghazouani Durand's recent strong starts and Maestrelli's poor overall form make the away player slightly more likely to take the opener.
- Ghazouani Durand last 15 first set win rate implied by 63.2% sets won
- Maestrelli last 15 first set win rate implied by 41% sets won
- Ghazouani Durand won first set in 3 of last 4 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonYanis Ghazouani DurandEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The closeness of the match and both players' tiebreak history suggest at least one tiebreak is likely.
- Maestrelli career tiebreak win percentage: 54%
- Ghazouani Durand career tiebreak win percentage: 52%
- Both players have played multiple tiebreaks in recent matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Maestrelli's strong serve should contribute enough aces to push the total over the line.
- Maestrelli last 15 aces per match: 7.2
- Ghazouani Durand last 15 aces per match: 2.9
- Combined average aces per match: 10.1
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players average a high number of double faults, making the over a reasonable play.
- Maestrelli last 15 double faults per match: 4.2
- Ghazouani Durand last 15 double faults per match: 4.8
- Combined average double faults per match: 9.0
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance50%

Previous match context available

Francesco Maestrelli

4W 11L

6-4 7-6(3)#357Arthur Nagel 6-0 2-6 6-1#231Maks Kasnikowski

6-7(2) 6-1 6-4#445Alafia Ayeni

6-2 6-2#378Juan Pablo Ficovich

6-7(2) 6-3 6-1#95Toby Samuel

6-4 7-6(4)#130Alexei Popyrin

7-6(6) 6-4#114Bu Yunchaokete

7-6(5) 4-6 6-3#190Juan Pablo Varillas

6-4 6-0#180Lukas Neumayer

6-3 6-7(8) 6-3#356Ognjen Milic

4-6 7-6(2) 6-4#219Max Basing

7-6(6) 7-5#176Alexis Galarneau

7-6(4) 3-6 6-1#63Arthur Gea

6-7(4) 6-2 6-4#223Kimmer Coppejans

2-6 6-3 6-3#212Roberto Carballes Baena

Yanis Ghazouani Durand

11W 4L

6-1 6-4#663Leo Raquillet 4-6 6-3 6-2#878Nikola Slavic 6-3 2-6 6-4#830Gijs Brouwer

6-1 7-6(7)#147Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

2-6 6-3 7-5#625Maxime Janvier

6-1 6-3#663Leo Raquillet

6-3 6-2—Gray Voelzke

7-5 1-6 6-3#893Szymon Kielan

2-6 6-2 6-2#861Nicolas Parizzia

6-2 6-1#634Gabriele Bosio

0-6 6-4 6-2#893Peter Buldorini

6-3 6-7(4) 6-4—Gabriele Crivellaro

6-1 6-2#435Geoffrey Blancaneaux

6-1 6-3—Arthur Bellegy

6-2 2-6 6-2—Pablo Pradat

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FMFrancesco MaestrelliMaestrelli

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Yanis Ghazouani DurandDurandYD

Francesco Maestrelli carries the stronger recent form — Yanis Ghazouani Durand's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In64.8%+4.9pp59.9%

1st Serve Won69.9%+2.4pp67.5%

2nd Serve Won44.7%+2.9pp47.6%

Aces / Match7.2+4.32.9

Double Faults / Match4.20.6 fewer4.8

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won36.6%+8.7pp45.3%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted37.7%+9.3pp47.0%

Break Pts Saved65.1%+8.3pp56.8%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.8%+3.6pp52.4%

Serve · 4–1

64.8%1st Serve In+4.9pp59.9%

69.9%1st Serve Won+2.4pp67.5%

44.7%2nd Serve Won+2.9pp47.6%

7.2Aces / Match+4.32.9

4.2Double Faults / Match0.6 fewer4.8

Return · 0–1

36.6%Return Pts Won+8.7pp45.3%

Pressure · 1–1

37.7%Break Pts Converted+9.3pp47.0%

65.1%Break Pts Saved+8.3pp56.8%

Points · 0–1

48.8%Total Pts Won+3.6pp52.4%