FranceRennes - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Gijs Brouwer #341Netherlands1Yanis Ghazouani Durand #584France2

Sets 3-6 · 6-2 · 4-6Sun 13 Sept 2026, 08:10 Predictions gradedQ1I.hard

Predictions3–350%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageGijs Brouwer · 243 places

Gijs Brouwer

Netherlands

Brouwer reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 114 on 27 February 2023. The ITF lists hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #341
Peak ranking: #114 · 2023
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 191 cm

Yanis Ghazouani Durand

France

Ghazouani Durand, 26, is the 183cm right-hander in this matchup. He identified hard courts as his preferred surface in July 2026.

Current ranking: #584
Peak ranking: #565 · 2026
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 03:03 · Europe/Bucharest

Ghazouani Durand's superior recent form, return game, and break-point conversion make him the clear favorite.

Back him to win at odds of 2.30, which offers strong value with an 18.5-point edge over the implied probability. The match is likely to be competitive, with over 21.5 total games a reasonable expectation.

Context

Ghazouani Durand, 595th, has been the more consistent player over the last 15 matches, winning 10 and posting a 52% total points won rate.
Brouwer's recent results are weaker, with only 7 wins in 15 and a 47.5% total points won rate. Ghazouani Durand's superior return numbers and overall point control suggest he can pressure Brouwer's serve, especially on second serves where Brouwer wins only 40.2%.
- Ghazouani Durand last 15: 10-5 record, 45% return points won, 52% total points won.
- Brouwer last 15: 7-8 record, 39.5% return points won, 47.5% total points won.
- Brouwer's second serve points won is only 40.2% over the same window.
Brouwer, 898th, has struggled overall but shows better numbers on indoor hard courts in his recent sample.
In three indoor hard matches, Brouwer won 66.7% and held a 70.3% first-serve points won rate, suggesting his serve can be effective on this surface. However, the sample is only three matches, so this trend is not a strong indicator.
- Brouwer last 15 on indoor hard: 2-1 record, 70.3% first-serve points won, 75.2% first-serve in.
- Only 3 indoor hard matches tracked in the last 15.
This is a first-round qualifying match at Rennes, played indoors on hard court. Both players must win to advance, and the indoor conditions can affect serving and movement.
- The current match listing places the pairing in first-round qualifying at Rennes on Court Colette Besson.
- The tournament listing identifies Rennes as an indoor hard-court Challenger event running from 13 to 20 September.
ReportedSources checked 13 Sep 2026, 03:02 · Europe/BucharestRennes 2026 match listingen.tennistemple.com · 13 Sep 2026Rennes Challenger event informationwww.tennis.com · 13 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Ghazouani Durand's superior recent form, return game, and break-point conversion give him a clear edge over Brouwer.
- Last 15 overall record: Ghazouani Durand 10-5 (66.7%) vs Brouwer 7-8 (46.7%)
- Last 15 return points won: Ghazouani Durand 45.0% vs Brouwer 39.5%
- Last 15 break points converted: Ghazouani Durand 47.5% vs Brouwer 39.8%
- Ranking: Ghazouani Durand 595 vs Brouwer 898
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonYanis Ghazouani DurandEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches have been competitive, and Ghazouani Durand's longer average duration suggests a match with many games.
- Brouwer last 15 average match duration: 88.4 minutes
- Ghazouani Durand last 15 average match duration: 109.2 minutes
- Brouwer last 15 games won: 44.8% vs Ghazouani Durand 54.3%
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be closely contested, with both players capable of holding serve and pushing the total games over 9.5.
- Brouwer last 15 first-set games: 44.8% won
- Ghazouani Durand last 15 first-set games: 54.3% won
- Both players have shown ability to extend sets in recent matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ghazouani Durand's stronger recent set-winning rate and solid first-set conversion support taking the opening set.
- Ghazouani Durand first-set win conversion: 86% career
- Brouwer first-set win conversion: 88% career
- Ghazouani Durand last 15 sets won: 61.1% vs Brouwer 44.4%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonYanis Ghazouani DurandEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined ace rates suggest a moderate total, but indoor hard courts can increase ace counts, making over 6.5 plausible.
- Ghazouani Durand last 15 aces per match: 2.7
- Brouwer last 15 aces per match: 1.3
- Combined average aces per match: 4.0
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players average over 5 double faults per match, making over 9.5 total double faults likely.
- Brouwer last 15 double faults per match: 5.0
- Ghazouani Durand last 15 double faults per match: 5.2
- Combined average double faults per match: 10.2
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Gijs Brouwer

7W 8L

6-2 7-6(3)#103Titouan Droguet

6-2 3-6 7-6(4)#292Matteo Martineau

5-7 7-6(3) 6-0#314Andres Martin

6-1 6-0#343Lucas Poullain

6-4 1-6 6-2#483Koki Matsuda

4-1 ret.#305Yanki Erel

4-6 6-0 6-4#381Manas Manoj Dhamne

6-2 6-1#628Tsung-Hao Huang

6-2 6-0#302Daniel Michalski

6-1 6-1#381Manas Manoj Dhamne

7-6(4) 3-6 6-1#476Ivan Gakhov

3-6 6-1 6-3#288Petr Bar Biryukov

4-6 6-2 2-0 ret.#343Lucas Poullain

7-6(4) 6-3—James Beaven

6-1 6-3—Marko Maric

Yanis Ghazouani Durand

10W 5L

6-1 7-6(7)#149Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

2-6 6-3 7-5#572Maxime Janvier

6-1 6-3#662Leo Raquillet

6-3 6-2—Gray Voelzke

7-5 1-6 6-3#893Szymon Kielan

2-6 6-2 6-2#861Nicolas Parizzia

6-2 6-1#693Gabriele Bosio

0-6 6-4 6-2#893Peter Buldorini

6-3 6-7(4) 6-4—Gabriele Crivellaro

6-1 6-2#361Geoffrey Blancaneaux

6-1 6-3—Arthur Bellegy

6-2 2-6 6-2—Pablo Pradat

6-3 6-1#386Laurent Lokoli

6-3 6-2#584Alexander Weis

6-2 6-4—Denis Constantin Spiridon

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

GBGijs BrouwerBrouwer

Last 15

1–7

9 core stats · 1 even

Yanis Ghazouani DurandDurandYD

Yanis Ghazouani Durand carries the stronger recent form — Gijs Brouwer's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In69.0%+11.0pp58.0%

1st Serve Won62.5%+6.4pp68.9%

2nd Serve Won40.2%+4.8pp45.0%

Aces / Match1.3+1.42.7

Double Faults / Match5.0—5.2

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won39.5%+5.5pp45.0%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted39.8%+7.7pp47.5%

Break Pts Saved55.8%+5.5pp61.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won47.5%+4.5pp52.0%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

69.0%1st Serve In+11.0pp58.0%

62.5%1st Serve Won+6.4pp68.9%

40.2%2nd Serve Won+4.8pp45.0%

1.3Aces / Match+1.42.7

5.0Double Faults / Match—5.2

Return · 0–1

39.5%Return Pts Won+5.5pp45.0%

Pressure · 0–2

39.8%Break Pts Converted+7.7pp47.5%

55.8%Break Pts Saved+5.5pp61.3%

Points · 0–1

47.5%Total Pts Won+4.5pp52.0%