Phan Thiet - VietnamFinished

Predictions graded

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez #292Mexico2Arthur Weber #405France0

Sets 6-4 · 6-2Wed 16 Sept 2026, 03:55 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions1–517%

Edges0–20%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageRodrigo Pacheco Mendez · 113 places

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

Mexico

Mexican left-hander, 191 cm, with a career-high ranking of No. 196 reached in September 2025. Recent public evidence shows a main-draw win at Los Cabos in July 2026 and a current team change.

Current ranking: #292
Peak ranking: #196 · 2025
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 191 cm

Arthur Weber

France

Weber, 34, is the left-hander in this matchup. His highest ATP singles ranking was No. 303 in October 2023, and hard is listed as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #405
Peak ranking: #303 · 2023
Current age: 34
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Sep 2026, 15:25 · Europe/Bucharest

Arthur Weber is the value pick against Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez, with superior recent form, return stats, and break-point conversion.

Back Weber to win the match and the first set, with a lean toward under 21.5 total games and Weber covering -3.5 games.

Context

Weber, 30, is a left-hander ranked 384 and has built his career on hard courts, with 168 of his 190 career wins on the surface.
Weber's 73.3% win rate in the last 15 matches, all on hard courts, contrasts with Pacheco Mendez's 53.3% overall. Weber also wins more return points (46.3% vs 38.7%) and converts break points at a much higher rate (48.3% vs 32.5%), which could be decisive in a best-of-three set match.
- Weber's last 15 matches: 11 wins, 4 losses, all on hard courts.
- Pacheco Mendez's last 15 matches: 8 wins, 7 losses, with 12 on hard courts.
- Weber's return points won: 46.3% vs Pacheco Mendez's 38.7%.
- Weber's break point conversion: 48.3% vs Pacheco Mendez's 32.5%.
Pacheco Mendez, 21, is ranked 269 and has a career win rate of 50.7%, with a modest 46 clay wins and 57 hard wins.
In his last five matches, Pacheco Mendez lost to Max Purcell (ranked 671), Andres Andrade (203), and Sebastian Baez (51), while beating only lower-ranked opponents. This pattern suggests he may struggle against Weber, who is ranked 384 but has been in better form.
- Pacheco Mendez's last five matches: 2 wins, 3 losses.
- Losses to Purcell (671), Andrade (203), and Baez (51).
- Wins over Callejon Hernando (486) and Tobon (495).
Weber's recent schedule has included many low-ranked opponents in Asian Challenger events.
Weber's 6-0, 6-0 wins over Tai Sach (502) and Tran Quoc Cuong (unranked) inflate his stats, but his only loss in the last five was to Ilia Simakin (177). Against Pacheco Mendez, who is ranked 269, Weber's form may not translate as directly.
- Weber's last five matches: 4 wins, 1 loss.
- Wins over Matsuda (467), Shimizu (399), Peliwo (648), and Sach (502).
- Loss to Simakin (177).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 3.80
The read
Weber's superior recent form and return/break-point edge on hard courts make him the likely winner.
- Arthur Weber last 15 overall record 73.3% (11-4) vs Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez 53.3% (8-7)
- Weber return points won 46.3% vs Pacheco Mendez 38.7% in last 15
- Weber break point conversion 48.3% vs Pacheco Mendez 32.5% in last 15
- Weber hard-court record 20-12 in 2026 vs Pacheco Mendez 20-14
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostArthur WeberEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Weber's efficiency and dominance in recent matches suggest a relatively short match with fewer games.
- Weber average match duration 91.8 minutes in last 15, Pacheco Mendez 106.5
- Weber games won 61.4% in last 15, Pacheco Mendez 53.3%
- Weber has won 6 of last 8 matches in straight sets
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Weber's recent dominance suggests he can cover a -3.5 game handicap.
- Weber games won 61.4% in last 15 vs Pacheco Mendez 53.3%
- Weber has won 6 of last 8 matches by 5+ games
- Pacheco Mendez has lost 4 of last 6 matches by 5+ games
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostArthur Weber -3.5Estimated chance50%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 3.20
The read
Weber's strong first-set record and Pacheco Mendez's recent slow starts favor Weber in set 1.
- Weber first set win conversion career 92% vs Pacheco Mendez 82%
- Weber has won first set in 10 of last 15 matches
- Pacheco Mendez lost first set in 3 of last 5 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostArthur WeberEstimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches have few tiebreaks, and Weber's break-point efficiency further lowers the chance.
- Weber has played a tiebreak in only 3 of last 15 matches
- Pacheco Mendez has played a tiebreak in 4 of last 15 matches
- Weber's break point conversion 48.3% reduces tiebreak likelihood
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Weber's low double fault rate keeps the combined total under 4.5.
- Weber averages 1.1 double faults per match in last 15
- Pacheco Mendez averages 3.1 double faults per match in last 15
- Combined average 4.2 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Pacheco Mendez's high ace rate pushes the combined total above 6.5.
- Pacheco Mendez averages 5.0 aces per match in last 15
- Weber averages 1.9 aces per match in last 15
- Combined average 6.9 aces per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

8W 7L

6-3 7-5#486Sergio Callejon Hernando

6-3 6-4#671Max Purcell

6-3 3-6 6-4#203Andres Andrade

6-2 6-4#495Miguel Tobon

6-3 6-3#563Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

6-4 6-4#498Paul Jubb

6-4 6-3#51Sebastian Baez

7-6(5) 6-2#139Tomas Barrios Vera

6-4 7-6(7)#362Aidan Mayo

6-2 6-3#657Roger Pascual Ferra

6-3 6-2#50Denis Shapovalov

6-7(4) 7-5 6-2#96Sho Shimabukuro

6-4 6-3#460Felipe Meligeni Alves

2-6 7-6(6) 7-6(5)#460Felipe Meligeni Alves

6-2 6-2—Segundo Goity Zapico

Arthur Weber

11W 4L

6-1 6-2#467Koki Matsuda 6-4 7-6(5)#177Ilia Simakin 6-4 6-4#399Yuta Shimizu 7-6(5) 6-2#648Filip Peliwo

6-0 6-0#502Tai Sach

6-0 6-0—Tran Quoc Cuong

7-5 7-6(5)#438Moerani Bouzige

6-1 6-2#1330Thantub Suksumrarn

6-2 7-5#865Thanapet Chanta

6-3 6-0#1229Jordan Hasson

6-4 6-3—Veerawit Kamput

7-5 6-4#880Kristjan Tamm

6-4 6-2#791Tsung-Hao Huang

6-3 6-4#308Florent Bax

2-6 6-1 6-3#544Fausto Tabacco

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

RMRodrigo Pacheco MendezMendez

Last 15

3–4

9 core stats · 2 even

Arthur WeberWeberAW

Arthur Weber carries the stronger recent form — Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–1 · 2 even

1st Serve In60.9%—60.7%

1st Serve Won72.8%—72.3%

2nd Serve Won56.6%+3.9pp52.7%

Aces / Match5.0+3.11.9

Double Faults / Match3.12.0 fewer1.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won38.7%+7.6pp46.3%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted32.5%+15.8pp48.3%

Break Pts Saved71.1%+13.3pp57.8%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won51.9%+3.3pp55.2%

Serve · 2–1 · 2 even

60.9%1st Serve In—60.7%

72.8%1st Serve Won—72.3%

56.6%2nd Serve Won+3.9pp52.7%

5.0Aces / Match+3.11.9

3.1Double Faults / Match2.0 fewer1.1

Return · 0–1

38.7%Return Pts Won+7.6pp46.3%

Pressure · 1–1

32.5%Break Pts Converted+15.8pp48.3%

71.1%Break Pts Saved+13.3pp57.8%

Points · 0–1

51.9%Total Pts Won+3.3pp55.2%