Phan Thiet - VietnamFinished

Predictions graded

Matthew Dellavedova #299Australia2Enzo Aguiard #513Australia0

Sets 6-3 · 6-1Wed 16 Sept 2026, 06:20 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions2–433%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMatthew Dellavedova · 214 places

Matthew Dellavedova

Australia

Dellavedova, ranked No. 299 in the supplied match data, is a right-hander with a one-handed backhand. Reliable public age, career-high and preferred-surface information could not be verified.

Current ranking: #299
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Enzo Aguiard

Australia

Career-high No. 483 in July 2026. His public profile lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #513
Peak ranking: #483 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Sep 2026, 15:32 · Europe/Bucharest

Dellavedova is the higher-ranked player with a stronger return game, but Aguiard's serve and longer matches make the over 21.5 games the best betting angle.

The moneyline on Dellavedova offers no value at 1.50, while the over has a 5.9-point edge.

Context

Dellavedova, 268th, is a right-hander with a one-handed backhand and has a career win rate of 57.7%.
His recent 10-5 record looks solid, but the wins were mostly against opponents ranked 300 or lower, while losses came to players ranked 160, 177, and 297. That pattern suggests his form may not translate against Aguiard, who is ranked 430 but has been competitive against similar opposition.
- In his last 15 matches, Dellavedova beat opponents ranked 879, 398, 387, 880, 502, 655, 531, 502, and unranked players.
- He lost to Taro Daniel (160), Ilia Simakin (177), Yu Hsiou Hsu (297), and Kuan-Shou Chen (897).
Dellavedova needed three sets to beat Grigoriy Lomakin on 15 September, while Aguiard won in straight sets a day earlier.
Dellavedova has had less recovery time and played an extra set before this meeting. That could leave him slightly less fresh in the later stages, though the effect is usually small over best-of-three sets.
- Aguiard beat Masamichi Imamura 6-3, 6-2 on 14 September.
- Dellavedova beat Grigoriy Lomakin 4-6, 6-3, 6-3 on 15 September.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Sep 2026, 15:31 · Europe/BucharestSport Festival Challenger II 2026 Men's Singles Scoreswww.mykhel.com · 15 Sep 2026
Aguiard, 430th, is a right-hander with a two-handed backhand and has a career win rate of 62.7%.
Aguiard's ace count gives him free points, but his 60.3% first-serve rate and 2.4 double faults per match could hand Dellavedova more return opportunities. Dellavedova's steadier serve (66.9% first serves, 1.3 double faults) may keep him in rallies longer.
- Aguiard's last 15 matches: 7.1 aces per match, 60.3% first serves, 2.4 double faults per match.
- Dellavedova's last 15 matches: 3.2 aces per match, 66.9% first serves, 1.3 double faults per match.
Aguiard has played 15 matches in the last two months, with several going the distance.
His recent schedule includes three-set battles against Sultanov, Isomura, and Johns, plus a 6-2 6-0 loss to Simakin. That workload may leave him slightly less fresh than Dellavedova, who has had more straight-set wins.
- Aguiard's last 15 matches include five three-set matches and one retirement win.
- Dellavedova's last 15 matches include only two three-set matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Matthew Dellavedova

1.50fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Dellavedova's stronger return game and higher ranking give him a moderate edge in this hard-court matchup.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Dellavedova's stronger return game and higher ranking give him a moderate edge in this hard-court matchup.
- Dellavedova last15 overall record 10-5 (66.7%), games won 57.4%
- Dellavedova return points won 41.7% vs Aguiard 37.2%
- Dellavedova ranking 268 vs Aguiard 430
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMatthew DellavedovaEstimated chance58%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Aguiard's matches tend to be longer and both players have shown three-set tendencies, making over 21.5 games likely.
- Dellavedova last15 average 20.2 games per match
- Aguiard last15 average 24.2 games per match
- Both players have multiple three-set matches in recent form
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have produced competitive first sets, supporting a higher game total.
- Dellavedova recent first sets include 4-6, 7-5, 7-6
- Aguiard recent first sets include 6-3, 2-6, 7-6
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dellavedova's solid first-set conversion and serve effectiveness support a slight edge in the opening set.
- Dellavedova first set win conversion 89% career
- Dellavedova last15 first serve points won 68.7%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMatthew DellavedovaEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault averages suggest a slight lean toward over 3.5 total double faults.
- Aguiard last15 double faults per match 2.4
- Dellavedova last15 double faults per match 1.3
- Combined average 3.7 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Aguiard's high ace rate combined with Dellavedova's moderate ace output makes over 8.5 aces plausible.
- Aguiard last15 aces per match 7.1
- Dellavedova last15 aces per match 3.2
- Combined average 10.3 aces per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The frequency of tiebreaks in recent matches, especially for Aguiard, makes a tiebreak in this match a coin-flip proposition.
- Aguiard has played 5 tiebreaks in last 15 matches
- Dellavedova has played 2 tiebreaks in last 15 matches
- Both players have tiebreak win percentages near 50%
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance50%

Previous match context available

Matthew Dellavedova

10W 5L

4-6 6-3 6-3#879Grigoriy Lomakin

6-3 6-1#160Taro Daniel

7-5 6-2#177Ilia Simakin

4-6 6-3 4-1 ret.#398Luca Castelnuovo

6-4 4-6 6-4#897Kuan-Shou Chen

6-1 6-2#387Kasidit Samrej

6-4 6-2#880Kristjan Tamm

6-2 6-2#502Tai Sach

6-1 6-2#655Keisuke Saitoh

6-3 6-2#297Yu Hsiou Hsu

7-5 6-2#531Shunsuke Mitsui

6-2 6-4#502Tai Sach

6-1 6-2—Hiromasa Koyama

7-6(1) 6-0—Jeffrey Hsu

3-6 7-6(4) 6-4#828Kousuke Ogura

Enzo Aguiard

10W 5L

6-3 6-2#411Masamichi Imamura

6-2 6-0#177Ilia Simakin

2-6 6-3 7-6(4)#431Khumoun Sultanov

6-4 7-6(4)#387Kasidit Samrej

7-6(1) 6-4#431Khumoun Sultanov

6-3 6-4#248Hayato Matsuoka

6-3 7-6(1)#898Jesse Delaney

6-7(9) 7-5 7-6(4)#635Kokoro Isomura

6-2 6-4#794Tianhui Zhang

6-3 7-5#686Yusuke Takahashi

6-4 6-3—Reiya Komagata

7-5 6-2—Fanming Meng

6-4 6-7(2) 6-4#437Garrett Johns

3-6 7-6(1) 6-2#696Strong Kirchheimer

7-6(3) 4-6 7-6(4)—Aniss Rafiq

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MDMatthew DellavedovaDellavedova

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Enzo AguiardAguiardEA

Matthew Dellavedova carries the stronger recent form — Enzo Aguiard's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In66.9%+6.6pp60.3%

1st Serve Won68.7%+4.9pp73.6%

2nd Serve Won53.9%—53.8%

Aces / Match3.2+3.97.1

Double Faults / Match1.31.1 fewer2.4

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won41.7%+4.5pp37.2%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted49.5%+10.8pp38.7%

Break Pts Saved58.0%+11.3pp69.3%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.9%+1.3pp51.6%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

66.9%1st Serve In+6.6pp60.3%

68.7%1st Serve Won+4.9pp73.6%

53.9%2nd Serve Won—53.8%

3.2Aces / Match+3.97.1

1.3Double Faults / Match1.1 fewer2.4

Return · 1–0

41.7%Return Pts Won+4.5pp37.2%

Pressure · 1–1

49.5%Break Pts Converted+10.8pp38.7%

58.0%Break Pts Saved+11.3pp69.3%

Points · 1–0

52.9%Total Pts Won+1.3pp51.6%