Hamish Stewart #349United Kingdom11 – 1Daniel Rincon #206Spain1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55

The read

Rincon's superior recent form, hard-court edge, and H2H win give him a moderate advantage.

• Daniel Rincon won the only H2H meeting on hard court in 2025 (2-6 6-3 7-5).
• Rincon's last 15 overall record is 8-7 (53.3%) vs Stewart's 7-8 (46.7%).
• Rincon's hard-court last 15 record is 4-3 (57.1%) vs Stewart's 2-3 (40%).
• Rincon has a higher career return points won (41%) than Stewart (39%).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' recent matches trend over 22.5 total games, and the H2H was high-scoring.

• Stewart's last 15 matches average 24.3 games per match (364 games / 15).
• Rincon's last 15 matches average 25.5 games per match (383 games / 15).
• H2H match had 29 games (2-6 6-3 7-5).
• Both players have similar total points won percentages (50.3% vs 49.7%).

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Recent set averages and competitive matchups suggest a close first set.

• Stewart's last 15 average set games: 364 games / 39 sets = 9.33.
• Rincon's last 15 average set games: 383 games / 38 sets = 10.08.
• H2H first set had 8 games (2-6).

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' double fault rates are low enough to stay under 5.5 total.

• Stewart averages 2.9 double faults per match in last 15.
• Rincon averages 1.9 double faults per match in last 15.
• Combined average is 4.8 double faults per match.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' ace rates combine to slightly exceed the 13.5 line.

• Stewart averages 7.5 aces per match in last 15.
• Rincon averages 6.2 aces per match in last 15.
• Combined average is 13.7 aces per match.