Daniel Rincon #206Spain11 – 2Juan Carlos Prado Angelo #156Bolivia2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

With both players averaging nearly 10 games per set and similar return stats, set 1 is likely to be competitive and exceed 9.5 games.

• Rincon's last15 average games per set is 9.8 (185 games in 37 sets)
• Prado Angelo's last15 average games per set is 9.8 (177 games in 36 sets)
• Both players have similar return points won (39.2% vs 38.8%), indicating breaks are possible

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players average over 24 games per match in recent form, and their close games won percentages point to tight sets, making over 21.5 games likely.

• Rincon's last15 average games per match is 24.3 (185 games in 15 matches)
• Prado Angelo's last15 average games per match is 24.6 (177 games in 15 matches)
• Both players have similar games won rates (50.8% vs 48.0%), suggesting competitive matches
• Rincon's last15 average match duration is 127.7 minutes, indicating longer matches

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Consistent set game averages and moderate break point conversion rates suggest set 2 will also be close, likely going over 9.5 games.

• Rincon's last15 average games per set is 9.8, consistent across sets
• Prado Angelo's last15 average games per set is 9.8, with no significant drop in second sets
• Both players have break point conversion rates around 40% (Rincon 40%, Prado Angelo 36.7%)

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The small average game difference and close underlying stats make Prado Angelo +3.5 a reasonable handicap, though confidence is low due to Rincon's form edge.

• Rincon's last15 average games won per match is 12.3, Prado Angelo's is 11.8, a difference of 0.5 games
• Prado Angelo's last15 games won rate is 48.0%, close to Rincon's 50.8%
• Both players have similar return points won (39.2% vs 38.8%), suggesting competitive matches

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

With nearly half of their recent matches going to three sets and both players showing strong deciding set records, a three-set match is probable.

• Rincon's last15 sets per match is 2.47 (37 sets in 15 matches), with 7 three-set matches
• Prado Angelo's last15 sets per match is 2.4 (36 sets in 15 matches), with 6 three-set matches
• Both players have deciding set win rates above 60% (Rincon 60%, Prado Angelo 67%), showing resilience

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

With both players averaging a tiebreak in roughly every 7-8 sets and closely matched games won rates, at least one tiebreak in the match is likely.

• Rincon's last15 matches include 5 tiebreaks in 37 sets (13.5% of sets)
• Prado Angelo's last15 matches include 4 tiebreaks in 36 sets (11.1% of sets)
• Both players have career tiebreak win percentages near 50% (Rincon 49%, Prado Angelo 56%)
• Close games won percentages (50.8% vs 48.0%) indicate tight sets

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Combined double fault averages are near 4.0, and moderate first serve percentages increase double fault risk, supporting over 3.5.

• Rincon's last15 double faults per match is 2.0, Prado Angelo's is 1.9, combined average 3.9
• Rincon's career double faults per match is 2.7 (993 in 366 matches), Prado Angelo's is 2.2 (538 in 242 matches)
• Both players have first serve percentages around 60%, leading to more second serves and potential double faults

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Combined ace averages slightly exceed 5.5, but clay surface and low individual ace rates make this a low-confidence over bet.

• Rincon's last15 aces per match is 3.8, Prado Angelo's is 2.0, combined average 5.8
• Rincon's career aces total is 1358 in 366 matches (3.7 per match), Prado Angelo's is 471 in 242 matches (1.9 per match)
• Clay surface typically reduces ace counts, but both players have moderate ace rates