ItalyBiella - ItalyFinished

Predictions graded

Alejandro Moro Canas #235Spain2Pavel Lagutin #474Russia0

Sets 6-4 · 6-3Wed 16 Sept 2026, 10:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions1–517%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlejandro Moro Canas · 239 places

Alejandro Moro Canas

Spain

Moro Canas, 25, is a right-hander and lists hard courts as his preferred surface. He reached a career-high ranking of No. 142 in August 2024.

Current ranking: #235
Peak ranking: #142 · 2024
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Pavel Lagutin

Russia

Lagutin, 21, is a right-hander. He holds a career-best ranking of No. 474; no verified preferred-surface designation is available.

Current ranking: #474
Peak ranking: #474
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Sep 2026, 22:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Pavel Lagutin's superior recent form (13-2 last 15) and strong return game (46.1% return points won) make him the value pick against Alejandro Moro Canas on clay.

Back Lagutin to win at odds around 2.20 for a solid edge. Expect a competitive match with potential for over 21.5 total games.

Context

Lagutin, ranked 432, has been on a strong run across hard and clay courts, with a 13-2 record in his last 15 matches.
Moro Canas, ranked 240, has been less consistent with an 8-7 record in the same span. Lagutin's recent wins include a victory over world No. 119 Vilius Gaubas, showing he can beat higher-ranked opponents. This form gap suggests Lagutin enters with more confidence and match sharpness.
- Lagutin last 15 overall record: 13-2 (86.7%)
- Moro Canas last 15 overall record: 8-7 (53.3%)
- Lagutin beat Vilius Gaubas (rank 119) 6-2 3-6 6-0 on clay in September 2026
Lagutin has played 7 clay matches in his last 15, winning 6, and his return numbers are strong.
Moro Canas has played 6 clay matches in his last 15, winning 4. Lagutin's return points won percentage of 46.2% is higher than Moro Canas's 43.9%, and Lagutin converts break points at 48.6% compared to Moro Canas's 47.3%. This suggests Lagutin may create more pressure on Moro Canas's serve.
- Lagutin clay return points won: 46.2% (7 matches)
- Moro Canas clay return points won: 43.9% (6 matches)
- Lagutin clay break point conversion: 48.6% vs Moro Canas 47.3%

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Lagutin's superior recent form and stronger return game give him the edge on clay.
- Lagutin last 15 overall record 13-2 (86.7%), Moro Canas 8-7 (53.3%)
- Lagutin clay last 7 record 6-1 (85.7%), Moro Canas clay last 6 record 4-2 (66.7%)
- Lagutin return points won 46.1% overall vs Moro Canas 37.9%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostPavel LagutinEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive clay matchup with both capable of extending sets points to a higher game total.
- Moro Canas clay matches average 24.5 games (147/6), Lagutin clay average 23.4 games (164/7)
- Both players have multiple three-set matches in recent clay form
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Evenly matched first sets on clay make a longer opener likely.
- Moro Canas clay first sets average 9.8 games, Lagutin clay first sets average 9.6 games
- Both players have strong first-set win rates, suggesting close opening sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Lagutin's high first-set conversion and strong clay serving support taking the opener.
- Lagutin first set win conversion career 94%, Moro Canas 82%
- Lagutin clay first serve in 81.3%, Moro Canas 72.6%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostPavel LagutinEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low ace rates on clay, making a low total aces line likely.
- Moro Canas clay aces per match 3.8, Lagutin clay aces per match 0.7
- Combined clay ace average 4.5 per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 7.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low double fault rates on clay, supporting an under on total double faults.
- Moro Canas clay double faults per match 0.8, Lagutin clay 0.9
- Combined clay double fault average 1.7 per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 3.5Estimated chance60%

Previous match context available

Alejandro Moro Canas

8W 7L

6-2 7-6(4)#435Geoffrey Blancaneaux

6-1 7-5#72Facundo Diaz Acosta

4-6 6-3 6-3#366Petr Brunclik

6-3 5-7 7-6(4)#476Pedro Vives Marcos

6-3 6-4#163Marco Cecchinato

3-6 6-1 6-4#702Tiago Cacao

6-3 6-4#187Remy Bertola

6-4 5-7 6-4#164Gauthier Onclin

6-4 7-6(3)#193Felix Balshaw

6-4 7-6(5)#519Alexander Donski

7-5 6-4#376Robin Bertrand

6-4 6-0#300Oliver Crawford

6-3 6-4#343Ivan Marrero Curbelo

7-6(4) 5-7 6-4#386Massimo Giunta

6-4 7-6(6) 6-3#157Soon-Woo Kwon

Pavel Lagutin

13W 2L

3-6 7-6(4) 6-3#316Enrico Dalla Valle 6-2 6-2#746Maximilian Marterer

6-1 6-0—Matthieu Rohrich

6-7(3) 6-2 7-6(6)#161Max Alcala Gurri

6-2 3-6 6-0#119Vilius Gaubas

6-4 5-7 6-0#338Tiago Pereira

6-3 6-4#563Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

6-3 6-1#752Goncalo Marques

6-3 6-2—Rodrigo Fernandes

4-6 6-2 6-2#893Mathieu Scaglia

6-4 6-2—Tiago Silva

7-6(0) 7-6(3)#734Benjamin Pietri

6-1 6-2#264Philip Henning

6-2 3-1 ret.#692Rafael Izquierdo Luque

6-4 6-4—Rodrigo Fernandes

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ACAlejandro Moro CanasCanas

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Pavel LagutinLagutinPL

Alejandro Moro Canas carries the stronger recent form — Pavel Lagutin's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In68.2%+9.8pp78.0%

1st Serve Won68.9%+1.3pp67.6%

2nd Serve Won55.5%+1.9pp53.6%

Aces / Match5.7+4.61.1

Double Faults / Match1.30.3 fewer1.6

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won37.9%+8.2pp46.1%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted37.0%+11.1pp48.1%

Break Pts Saved58.5%+1.5pp57.0%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.6%+4.3pp54.9%

Serve · 4–1

68.2%1st Serve In+9.8pp78.0%

68.9%1st Serve Won+1.3pp67.6%

55.5%2nd Serve Won+1.9pp53.6%

5.7Aces / Match+4.61.1

1.3Double Faults / Match0.3 fewer1.6

Return · 0–1

37.9%Return Pts Won+8.2pp46.1%

Pressure · 1–1

37.0%Break Pts Converted+11.1pp48.1%

58.5%Break Pts Saved+1.5pp57.0%

Points · 0–1

50.6%Total Pts Won+4.3pp54.9%