ItalyBiella - ItalyFinished

Predictions graded

Pavel Lagutin #474Russia2Enrico Dalla Valle #321Italy1

Sets 3-6 · 7-6 · 6-3Tue 15 Sept 2026, 09:40 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions6–275%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageEnrico Dalla Valle · 153 places

Pavel Lagutin

Russia

Lagutin, 21, is a right-hander. He holds a career-best ranking of No. 474; no verified preferred-surface designation is available.

Current ranking: #474
Peak ranking: #474
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Enrico Dalla Valle

Italy

Italian clay-court player; the ITF lists clay as his preferred surface. He reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 242 on 24 June 2024.

Current ranking: #321
Peak ranking: #242 · 2024
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Sep 2026, 22:18 · Europe/Bucharest

Pavel Lagutin's superior recent form and return game on clay give him a clear edge over Enrico Dalla Valle despite the ranking gap.

Back Lagutin to win at odds of 2.10, which offers significant value with an estimated 68% probability. Consider over 21.5 total games and over 5.5 total aces as secondary angles.

Context

Lagutin, 432nd, has been playing mostly lower-level Challenger and ITF events, but his recent clay results show he is comfortable on the surface.
Lagutin's last seven clay matches include six wins, with two straight-set victories in the past two days. Dalla Valle has lost three of his last five clay matches, including a retirement. This contrast suggests Lagutin may have the edge in current form, though Dalla Valle's higher ranking and experience could balance it.
- Lagutin's last 7 clay matches: 6 wins, 1 loss.
- Lagutin won his last two matches 6-2 6-2 and 6-1 6-0.
- Dalla Valle's last 5 clay matches: 2 wins, 3 losses, including a retirement.
Pavel Lagutin, ATP No. 432, is a right-hander who reached the Biella main draw through two qualifying wins on 13-14 September.
Those two matches leave him with a shorter recovery window before this first-round meeting. The best-of-3 format reduces the physical toll, but the quick turnaround could still affect his freshness against Dalla Valle.
- Lagutin beat Matthieu Roehrich 6-1, 6-0 and Maximilian Marterer 6-2, 6-2 in the Biella qualifying draw before the main draw was set.
- Stored recent sample: 4 wins from 5 tracked matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Sep 2026, 22:17 · Europe/BucharestSuperTennis — Biella results, 14 Septemberwww.supertennis.tv · 14 Sep 2026
Dalla Valle, 333rd, is a tall right-hander with a powerful serve, but his return numbers have been below average in recent matches.
Dalla Valle's first serve is a major strength, but his return points won percentage of 35.9% is low. Lagutin's return points won is 48%, so he may be able to pressure Dalla Valle's serve more effectively than Dalla Valle can pressure his. This could lead to more break opportunities for Lagutin.
- Dalla Valle last 15: 4.9 aces per match, 74.7% first-serve points won.
- Dalla Valle last 15: 35.9% return points won.
- Lagutin last 15: 48% return points won.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Lagutin's superior recent form and return game on clay give him a clear edge despite the ranking gap.
- Lagutin last 15 overall record 13-2 (86.7%), Dalla Valle 8-7 (53.3%)
- Lagutin clay last 7 record 6-1 (85.7%), Dalla Valle clay last 15 8-7 (53.3%)
- Lagutin return points won 48% overall / 50.1% clay vs Dalla Valle 35.9% overall / 35.9% clay
- Lagutin ranking 432 vs Dalla Valle 333, but recent form strongly favors Lagutin
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPavel LagutinEstimated chance68%

Games3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive clay match with both players capable of extending sets suggests a higher total games line.
- Lagutin average match duration 110.7 min, Dalla Valle 114.6 min
- Lagutin games won 61.4%, Dalla Valle 53.8%
- Both players have multiple three-set matches in recent form
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Evenly matched first sets with tiebreak potential support over 9.5 games in set 1.
- Dalla Valle has played tiebreaks in 4 of last 15 matches
- Lagutin has played tiebreaks in 3 of last 15 matches
- Both players have similar first serve points won percentages
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Set 2 could be closer if Dalla Valle adjusts after losing set 1, pushing total games over 9.5.
- Lagutin second set performance often competitive after winning first set
- Dalla Valle has won second set in 5 of last 15 matches
- Both players have similar second serve points won percentages
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Lagutin's superior form suggests he can cover a -3.5 game handicap in a straight-sets win.
- Lagutin games won 61.4% vs Dalla Valle 53.8%
- Lagutin has won 12 of last 15 matches, often by comfortable margins
- Dalla Valle has lost 7 of last 15 matches
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonPavel Lagutin -3.5Estimated chance50%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Lagutin's strong first-set record and Dalla Valle's slow starts make Lagutin the likely set 1 winner.
- Lagutin first set win conversion career 94%, Dalla Valle 88%
- Lagutin won first set in 12 of last 15 matches (80%)
- Dalla Valle lost first set in 5 of last 8 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostPavel LagutinEstimated chance64%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dalla Valle's high ace count alone pushes combined aces over 5.5 in most matches.
- Dalla Valle averages 4.9 aces per match in last 15
- Lagutin averages 1.1 aces per match in last 15
- Combined average aces per match = 6.0
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
High likelihood of at least one tiebreak given both players' recent tiebreak frequency.
- Dalla Valle has played tiebreaks in 6 of last 15 matches (40%)
- Lagutin has played tiebreaks in 4 of last 15 matches (27%)
- Both players have tiebreak win percentages around 50%
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate double fault rates, making under 3.5 a coin-flip but slightly favored.
- Lagutin averages 1.7 double faults per match in last 15
- Dalla Valle averages 1.8 double faults per match in last 15
- Combined average double faults per match = 3.5
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 3.5Estimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Pavel Lagutin

13W 2L

6-2 6-2#746Maximilian Marterer

6-1 6-0—Matthieu Rohrich

6-7(3) 6-2 7-6(6)#161Max Alcala Gurri

6-2 3-6 6-0#121Vilius Gaubas

6-4 5-7 6-0#355Tiago Pereira

6-3 6-4#564Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

6-3 6-1#752Goncalo Marques

6-3 6-2—Rodrigo Fernandes

4-6 6-2 6-2#893Mathieu Scaglia

6-4 6-2—Tiago Silva

7-6(0) 7-6(3)#734Benjamin Pietri

6-1 6-2#276Philip Henning

6-2 3-1 ret.#692Rafael Izquierdo Luque

6-4 6-4—Rodrigo Fernandes

6-2 7-5#555Carlos Lopez Montagud

Enrico Dalla Valle

8W 7L

6-7(4) 6-2 7-6(5)#254Matej Dodig

6-7(3) 6-1 6-4#147Stefano Travaglia

6-2 6-1—Gabriele Crivellaro

7-6(2) 6-2#318Oriol Roca Batalla

6-3 6-4#489Niels Mcdonald

7-6(2) 4-0 ret.#262Juan Bautista Torres

7-6(6) 7-6(2)#266Mili Poljicak

6-3 6-3#257Mika Brunold

6-3 7-6(3)—Mattia Logrippo

5-7 6-0 6-1#140Hugo Dellien

6-3 6-4#257Andrej Nedic

6-4 4-6 6-4#169Federico Agustin Gomez

6-1 6-1#884Ignacio Carou

6-3 6-0#1576Boris Arias

7-6(4) 7-6(5)#128Gustavo Heide

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PLPavel LagutinLagutin

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Enrico Dalla ValleValleEV

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In78.0%+13.2pp64.8%

1st Serve Won66.6%+8.1pp74.7%

2nd Serve Won52.2%+1.2pp53.4%

Aces / Match1.1+3.84.9

Double Faults / Match1.7—1.8

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won48.0%+12.1pp35.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted48.6%+9.3pp39.3%

Break Pts Saved57.0%+9.7pp66.7%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won55.3%+3.7pp51.6%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

78.0%1st Serve In+13.2pp64.8%

66.6%1st Serve Won+8.1pp74.7%

52.2%2nd Serve Won+1.2pp53.4%

1.1Aces / Match+3.84.9

1.7Double Faults / Match—1.8

Return · 1–0

48.0%Return Pts Won+12.1pp35.9%

Pressure · 1–1

48.6%Break Pts Converted+9.3pp39.3%

57.0%Break Pts Saved+9.7pp66.7%

Points · 1–0

55.3%Total Pts Won+3.7pp51.6%