Phan Thiet - VietnamFinished

Predictions graded

Yuta Shimizu #393Japan1Philip Sekulic #353Australia2

Sets 2-6 · 6-2 · 5-7Tue 15 Sept 2026, 03:10 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions3–443%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantagePhilip Sekulic · 40 places

Yuta Shimizu

Japan

Japanese left-hander who lists hard courts as his preferred surface. ITF records show a career-best ATP singles ranking of No. 181 on 24 February 2025.

Current ranking: #393
Peak ranking: #181 · 2025
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 163 cm

Philip Sekulic

Australia

Sekulic reached a career-high No. 225 in July 2024. His ITF profile lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #353
Peak ranking: #225 · 2024
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Sep 2026, 03:23 · Europe/Bucharest

Shimizu has a slight edge due to superior break-point saving and recent form, but the H2H loss and Sekulic's return strength make this a close match.

The best betting angle is over 21.5 total games, while Shimizu's moneyline at 1.60 offers negative value.

Context

Sekulic, 22, is a right-hander from Australia ranked 353. Shimizu, 27, is a left-hander from Japan ranked 396.
Both players have similar recent hard-court win rates, but Sekulic's return points won (40.4%) and break-point conversion (51.1%) are better than Shimizu's (38% and 38.6%). Sekulic's first-serve points won (66.6%) is lower than Shimizu's (71.4%), so the match may hinge on who can hold serve more effectively.
- Sekulic's last 14 hard-court matches: 7 wins, 7 losses (50%).
- Shimizu's last 15 hard-court matches: 8 wins, 7 losses (53.3%).
- Sekulic's return points won on hard: 40.4%; Shimizu's: 38%.
- Sekulic's break-point conversion on hard: 51.1%; Shimizu's: 38.6%.
The two players met once before, in the quarterfinals of a Challenger event in 2024.
Sekulic won 6-3 6-1, winning 68% of first-serve points and 75% of second-serve points, while Shimizu won only 48% and 42% respectively. That match is nearly two years old, but it shows Sekulic can dominate Shimizu's return game on this surface.
- H2H: Sekulic leads 1-0.
- 2024-11-29: Sekulic won 6-3 6-1 on hard court.
- Sekulic's first-serve points won: 68%; Shimizu's: 48%.
- Sekulic's second-serve points won: 75%; Shimizu's: 42%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yuta Shimizu

1.60fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Shimizu's stronger break-point saving and comparable overall form give him a slight edge, but the odds overestimate his chances.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Shimizu's stronger recent break-point saving and comparable overall form give him a slight edge, though the H2H loss tempers confidence.
- Last 15 overall record: Shimizu 8-7 (53.3%) vs Sekulic 7-8 (46.7%)
- Last 15 hard-court return points won: Shimizu 38.0% vs Sekulic 40.4%
- Last 15 break points saved: Shimizu 66.4% vs Sekulic 46.2%
- H2H: Sekulic won 6-3 6-1 on hard in Nov 2024
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostYuta ShimizuEstimated chance55%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent match lengths and competitive sets suggest a total above 21.5 games is likely.
- Shimizu last 15 average games per match: 24.7
- Sekulic last 15 average games per match: 21.1
- Both players have multiple three-set matches in recent form
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets have been competitive, supporting an over on the set-one total.
- Shimizu last 15 first-set average games: 9.9
- Sekulic last 15 first-set average games: 9.3
- Both players have played multiple tiebreaks in recent first sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Shimizu's slightly better first-serve effectiveness in recent matches supports a narrow first-set advantage.
- Shimizu first-set win conversion career: 86%
- Sekulic first-set win conversion career: 86%
- Last 15 first-serve points won: Shimizu 71.4% vs Sekulic 66.7%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostYuta ShimizuEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace rates suggest a total above 8.5 is slightly more likely than not.
- Shimizu last 15 aces per match: 5.5
- Sekulic last 15 aces per match: 3.8
- Combined average aces per match: 9.3
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players average over three double faults per match, making over 6.5 a coin-flip proposition.
- Shimizu last 15 double faults per match: 3.4
- Sekulic last 15 double faults per match: 3.9
- Combined average double faults per match: 7.3
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-3 6-1Yuta Shimizu#396vPhilip Sekulic#353Nov 29, 2024

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Yuta Shimizu

8W 7L

6-4 6-4#405Arthur Weber 5-7 7-5 7-6(3)#518Hiroki Moriya

6-4 6-4#486Kasidit Samrej

6-1 6-1—Aditya Vishal Balsekar

6-4 7-5#327Anton Matusevich

4-6 6-3 6-3#299Johannus Monday

6-2 7-5#197Liam Broady

7-5 6-1#403Justin Boulais

6-2 4-6 6-2#312Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-2 6-4#651Ryan Colby

7-6(3) 7-6(5)#173Michael Mmoh

6-4 7-6(2)#400Trevor Svajda

7-6(4) 7-6(2)#620Dan Martin

4-6 7-6(5) 6-4#184Andre Ilagan

6-7(6) 7-6(6) 7-6(3)#307Murphy Cassone

Philip Sekulic

7W 8L

6-4 6-3#275Ilia Simakin

6-2 4-6 7-5#483Koki Matsuda

6-3 1-0 ret.#460Moerani Bouzige

2-6 6-0 6-1#864Sora Fukuda

3-6 6-4 4-0 ret.#894Yunseong Chung

6-2 6-2#185Clement Chidekh

6-3 4-6 6-1#117Shintaro Mochizuki

6-2 6-1#307Murphy Cassone

6-1 1-6 6-3#156Daniil Glinka

6-4 6-0#690Strong Kirchheimer

6-3 6-3#864Patrick Maloney

7-5 6-7(4) 7-5#477Blake Ellis

6-2 7-5#193Keegan Smith

6-0 6-2—Kriish Tyagi

6-7(6) 6-3 6-1#489Maximus Jones

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

YSYuta ShimizuShimizu

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Philip SekulicSekulicPS

Yuta Shimizu carries the stronger recent form — Philip Sekulic's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In59.8%+3.1pp62.9%

1st Serve Won71.4%+4.7pp66.7%

2nd Serve Won49.8%—49.3%

Aces / Match5.5+1.73.8

Double Faults / Match3.40.5 fewer3.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won38.0%+1.9pp39.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted38.6%+10.9pp49.5%

Break Pts Saved66.4%+20.2pp46.2%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won50.4%—49.8%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

59.8%1st Serve In+3.1pp62.9%

71.4%1st Serve Won+4.7pp66.7%

49.8%2nd Serve Won—49.3%

5.5Aces / Match+1.73.8

3.4Double Faults / Match0.5 fewer3.9

Return · 0–1

38.0%Return Pts Won+1.9pp39.9%

Pressure · 1–1

38.6%Break Pts Converted+10.9pp49.5%

66.4%Break Pts Saved+20.2pp46.2%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.4%Total Pts Won—49.8%