Phan Thiet - VietnamFinished

Predictions graded

Timofei Derepasko #680Russia0Ilia Simakin #269Russia2

Sets 4-6 · 3-6Tue 15 Sept 2026, 06:35 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions7–188%

Edges3–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageIlia Simakin · 411 places

Timofei Derepasko

Russia

Derepasko, 19, is the right-hander in this matchup. His highest ranking, No. 634, came in June 2026.

Current ranking: #680
Peak ranking: #634 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Ilia Simakin

Russia

Reached a career-high No. 214 on 2 February 2026. His 2026 ITF-recorded results were stronger on hard courts than clay.

Current ranking: #269
Peak ranking: #214 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Sep 2026, 15:14 · Europe/Bucharest

Ilia Simakin is a heavy favorite over Timofei Derepasko due to superior ranking, form, and hard-court pedigree.

The best betting angles are Simakin -3.5 games and under 21.5 total games, while the match winner and 2-0 set betting markets offer no value at current odds.

Context

Simakin, ranked 275, is a right-hander with a strong hard-court record, having won 33 of 41 matches on the surface in 2026. Derepasko, ranked 680, has a more modest 18-18 hard-court record this year.
Simakin's recent hard-court dominance includes wins over players ranked inside the top 300, while Derepasko's losses have come against opponents ranked 279 and 354. This suggests Simakin is better equipped to handle the level of competition in this matchup, though Derepasko's recent wins over lower-ranked players show he can be competitive when not facing top-400 opposition.
- Simakin's last 15 hard-court matches: 14 wins, 1 loss (93.3% win rate).
- Derepasko's last 7 hard-court matches: 5 wins, 2 losses, with losses to Cruz Hewitt (rank 354) and Sean Cuenin (rank 279).
- Simakin's recent wins include victories over Ilya Ivashka (rank 230) and Matthew Dellavedova (rank 293).
Simakin's first-serve effectiveness is a key weapon, with a 76.4% win rate on first serves in his last 15 matches. Derepasko's return game has been less effective, winning 42.4% of return points.
If Simakin serves at his recent level, Derepasko may struggle to create break opportunities, as his return points won percentage is below the tour average. However, Derepasko's break point conversion rate of 44.2% suggests he can capitalize when chances arise, but those chances may be limited.
- Simakin's last 15 matches: 7.3 aces per match, 76.4% first-serve points won.
- Derepasko's last 14 matches: 42.4% return points won, 44.2% break points converted.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Ilia Simakin

1.08fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 92.6%

0.0ppshort

Simakin's dominant recent form and far superior ranking/hard-court pedigree make him a clear favorite.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Ilia Simakin

1.18fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 84.7%

0.0ppshort

Simakin's strong first-set conversion and overall set dominance support a high probability of taking the opener.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Lean

Ilia Simakin 2-0

1.44fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 69.4%

0.0ppshort

The model estimate of 58% is below the implied probability of 69.4%, so this selection is not value at the offered price.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.08
The read
Simakin's dominant recent form and far superior ranking/hard-court pedigree make him a clear favorite.
- Simakin last 15 overall record 14-1 (93.3%), Derepasko 9-6 (60%)
- Simakin ranking 275 vs Derepasko 680
- Simakin hard-court last 15 record 14-1, Derepasko 5-2 on hard in same window
- Simakin career hard-court wins 183 vs Derepasko 39
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonIlia SimakinEstimated chance78%

Games3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Simakin's ability to dominate weaker opponents suggests a relatively short match, though Derepasko's competitiveness could push it over.
- Simakin average games per match last 15: 23.5 total, but many lopsided wins
- Derepasko last 15 average total games 18.5
- Simakin has won 8 of last 15 matches in straight sets with 12 or fewer games lost
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Simakin's consistent positive game differential supports covering a -3.5 handicap against a lower-ranked opponent.
- Simakin average games won margin last 15: +3.9 games per match
- Derepasko average games won margin last 15: +0.5 games per match
- Simakin has covered -3.5 in 9 of last 15 matches
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonIlia Simakin -3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Simakin's tendency to start strong could lead to a relatively short first set, but Derepasko's competitiveness keeps this close to a coin flip.
- Simakin first set average games: 9.3 in last 15
- Derepasko first set average games: 9.1 in last 15
- Simakin has won first set 6-3 or better in 8 of last 15
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Similar to set 1, Simakin's control often leads to shorter sets, but variance is high.
- Simakin second set average games: 9.4 in last 15
- Derepasko second set average games: 9.2 in last 15
- Simakin has won second set 6-3 or better in 7 of last 15
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Simakin's strong first-set conversion and overall set dominance support a high probability of taking the opener.
- Simakin first-set win conversion 91% career, Derepasko 86%
- Simakin last 15 sets won 80.6%, Derepasko 59.4%
- Simakin has won first set in 13 of last 15 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonIlia SimakinEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Simakin's straight-set win rate and overall dominance make a 2-0 victory the most likely exact score.
- Simakin has won 10 of last 15 matches in straight sets
- Derepasko has lost 4 of last 15 in straight sets, but also won 6 in straight sets
- Simakin's superior serve and return stats suggest fewer dropped sets
BetBugs · Set BettingwonIlia Simakin 2-0Estimated chance58%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Simakin's ability to win sets comfortably lowers the chance of a tiebreak, though his own tiebreak frequency is moderate.
- Simakin has played a tiebreak in 6 of last 15 matches
- Derepasko has played a tiebreak in 2 of last 15 matches
- Simakin's dominance reduces likelihood of close sets
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players contribute to a combined ace count that often exceeds 8.5, though variance is high.
- Simakin averages 7.3 aces per match last 15
- Derepasko averages 4.2 aces per match last 15
- Combined average 11.5 aces per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault average sits right at the line, making over a coin-flip proposition.
- Simakin averages 2.9 double faults per match last 15
- Derepasko averages 2.6 double faults per match last 15
- Combined average 5.5 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Timofei Derepasko

9W 6L

7-5 6-3#768Taisei Ichikawa 6-3 6-3—Stefan Storch

6-3 6-2#354Cruz Hewitt

6-3 4-6 6-4#851Sam Ryan Ziegann

6-3 6-4#840Taiyo Yamanaka

6-2 6-0—Minhthien Nguyen

6-4 6-3—Dimitar Kisimov

6-3 6-0#889Alessandro Bellifemine

6-2 6-1—Egor Shcherbakov

6-0 6-2#279Sean Cuenin

7-6(7) 5-1 ret.—Loan Lestir

6-3 6-2#600Pierre Delage

6-4 6-2—Vardan Manukyan

6-3 6-1—Mattias Pisanu

3-6 6-3 6-2—Marko Milosavljevic (SRB)

Ilia Simakin

14W 1L

6-4 7-6(5)#405Arthur Weber 6-3 2-6 6-2#671Max Purcell

6-4 6-3#353Philip Sekulic

6-2 6-0#513Enzo Aguiard

7-6(7) 2-6 6-2#485Sergio Callejon Hernando

6-3 6-1#486Kasidit Samrej

6-3 6-7(3) 6-3#551Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

7-6(5) 6-4#230Ilya Ivashka

7-5 6-2#293Matthew Dellavedova

6-1 6-2#417Denis Yevseyev

5-7 6-2 6-3#337Lucas Poullain

7-6(5) 7-6(2)#374Antoine Ghibaudo

6-0 6-7(7) 6-4#303Florent Bax

6-3 7-6(4)#323Fajing Sun

5-7 6-3 6-4#477Adrian Boitan

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TDTimofei DerepaskoDerepasko

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Ilia SimakinSimakinIS

Ilia Simakin carries the stronger recent form — Timofei Derepasko's route runs through return.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1551.1%+9.5pp60.6%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1573.7%+2.7pp76.4%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1550.1%+5.2pp55.3%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/154.2+3.17.3

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/152.60.3 fewer2.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1542.4%+1.4pp41.0%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1544.2%—44.9%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1556.7%+5.4pp62.1%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1552.4%+1.7pp54.1%

Serve · 1–4

51.1%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+9.5pp60.6%

73.7%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+2.7pp76.4%

50.1%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+5.2pp55.3%

4.2Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+3.17.3

2.6Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/150.3 fewer2.9

Return · 1–0

42.4%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+1.4pp41.0%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

44.2%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15—44.9%

56.7%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+5.4pp62.1%

Points · 0–1

52.4%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+1.7pp54.1%