Phan Thiet - VietnamFinished

Predictions graded

Timofei Derepasko #680Russia2Stefan Storch #1440Australia0

Sets 6-3 · 6-3Sun 13 Sept 2026, 06:40 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions6–275%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageTimofei Derepasko · 760 places

Timofei Derepasko

Russia

Derepasko, 19, is the right-hander in this matchup. His highest ranking, No. 634, came in June 2026.

Current ranking: #680
Peak ranking: #634 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Stefan Storch

Australia

Storch, 24, is the right-hander in this matchup. His ITF profile lists clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #1440
Peak ranking: #1346 · 2025
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Sep 2026, 22:17 · Europe/Bucharest

Derepasko is the likely winner based on better recent hard-court form and a common-opponent advantage, but odds of 1.18 offer no value.

Storch's stronger serve could keep it close, but his slow starts favor Derepasko in the first set. Betting angles are limited; consider Derepasko 2-0 or over 21.5 games with low confidence.

Context

Derepasko, ranked 680, has a 60% win rate on hard courts in his last five matches, including a run to the quarterfinals of a recent Challenger.
Storch has struggled on hard courts recently, winning only three of nine matches. Derepasko's stronger recent results on this surface suggest he is better prepared for this qualifying round.
- Derepasko's last 5 hard-court matches: 3 wins, 2 losses (60% win rate).
- Storch's last 9 hard-court matches: 3 wins, 6 losses (33% win rate).
Storch's first-serve percentage is 68.6% in his last 15 matches, compared to Derepasko's 52.5%.
Storch's stronger serving could keep him in games, but Derepasko's higher return points won (41.1% vs 36.7%) may give him more break opportunities. This contrast could lead to tight service games.
- Storch first serve in: 68.6% vs Derepasko 52.5% (last 15 matches).
- Storch break points saved: 74.1% vs Derepasko 56.7%.
- Derepasko return points won: 41.1% vs Storch 36.7%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Timofei Derepasko

1.18fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 84.7%

0.0ppshort

Derepasko's superior recent hard-court form and direct common-opponent result give him the edge, but the odds heavily overprice him.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Derepasko's superior recent hard-court form and direct common-opponent result give him the edge.
- Derepasko has a 60% win rate on hard courts in his last 15 matches (3-2), while Storch is 33.3% (3-6) on hard in the same window.
- Derepasko's recent form in this tournament: 3 wins and 1 loss, including a straight-set win over Sam Ryan Ziegann, who beat Storch 6-4 6-3 on 2026-09-03.
- Derepasko's overall last-15 record is 53.3% vs Storch's 46.7%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTimofei DerepaskoEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Storch's matches tend to be longer, and the competitive nature of this matchup suggests a total over 21.5 games.
- Derepasko's last 15 matches average 19.7 games per match (276 games / 14 matches with duration data).
- Storch's last 15 matches average 23.1 games per match (346 games / 15 matches).
- Storch's matches on hard courts average 21.3 games (192 games / 9 matches).
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have had competitive first sets, and the line of 9.5 is close to the expected average.
- Derepasko's recent first sets: 6-3, 6-3, 6-3, 6-2, 4-6 (average 9.4 games).
- Storch's recent first sets: 3-6, 4-6, 3-6, 3-6, 4-6 (average 8.8 games).
- Combined average first-set games is around 9.1, but variance is high.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Derepasko's strong recent first-set performance and Storch's slow starts support a Derepasko first-set win.
- Derepasko won the first set in 4 of his last 5 matches, including all three wins in this tournament.
- Storch lost the first set in 3 of his last 4 matches.
- Derepasko's first-set win conversion is 86% career, Storch's is 88% career, but recent form favors Derepasko.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonTimofei DerepaskoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The high frequency of straight-set matches suggests the match will end in two sets.
- Derepasko's last 5 matches: 4 straight-set results.
- Storch's last 5 matches: 3 straight-set results.
- Combined straight-set rate is 70% in recent matches.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low tiebreak rates, making a tiebreak unlikely.
- Derepasko's tiebreak win percentage is 44% career, Storch's is 32% career.
- In their last 15 matches, Derepasko played 2 tiebreaks, Storch played 3 tiebreaks.
- Combined tiebreak frequency is low (5 tiebreaks in 30 matches).
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have decent ace counts, and the combined average slightly exceeds the 8.5 line.
- Derepasko averages 3.7 aces per match in last 15, 4.6 on hard courts.
- Storch averages 5.5 aces per match in last 15, 4.1 on hard courts.
- Combined expected aces: 8.7 on hard courts.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault average is above the 4.5 line, though variance is high.
- Derepasko averages 2.0 double faults per match in last 15, 3.0 on hard courts.
- Storch averages 2.6 double faults per match in last 15, 2.6 on hard courts.
- Combined expected double faults: 5.6 on hard courts.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Timofei Derepasko

8W 7L

6-3 6-2#354Cruz Hewitt

6-3 4-6 6-4#820Sam Ryan Ziegann

6-3 6-4#830Taiyo Yamanaka

6-2 6-0—Minhthien Nguyen

6-4 6-3—Dimitar Kisimov

6-3 6-0#889Alessandro Bellifemine

6-2 6-1—Egor Shcherbakov

6-0 6-2#279Sean Cuenin

7-6(7) 5-1 ret.—Loan Lestir

6-3 6-2#600Pierre Delage

6-4 6-2—Vardan Manukyan

6-3 6-1—Mattias Pisanu

3-6 6-3 6-2—Marko Milosavljevic (SRB)

7-6(4) 6-1#496Dusan Obradovic

6-3 6-3#421Semen Pankin

Stefan Storch

7W 8L

6-3 2-6 10-8—Haruto Ishikawa

6-4 6-3#820Sam Ryan Ziegann

3-6 6-2 6-4—Matthew Shearer

6-3 4-6 10-6—Mattias Southcombe

6-4 6-2#845Tianhui Zhang

6-7(5) 6-3 6-1—Reiya Komagata

7-6(5) 6-4—Kazuki Nakajima

6-4 3-6 10-6—Haolong He

6-1 6-1—Haoran Hu

7-6(5) 6-1#720Manish Sureshkumar

6-3 6-1—Yuya Hirose

6-2 6-2—Renaldi Aqila Arifadli Salim

7-6(4) 6-4—Ethan David Zapp

6-2 6-2—Asahi Harazaki

7-5 6-2—Wenze Li

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TDTimofei DerepaskoDerepasko

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Stefan StorchStorchSS

Timofei Derepasko carries the stronger recent form — Stefan Storch's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In14/15 · 11/1552.5%+16.1pp68.6%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 11/1572.7%+7.3pp65.4%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 11/1549.5%+2.7pp52.2%

Aces / Match14/15 · 11/153.7+1.85.5

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 11/152.00.6 fewer2.6

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won14/15 · 11/1541.1%+4.4pp36.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 11/1544.7%+2.3pp42.4%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 11/1556.7%+17.4pp74.1%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won14/15 · 11/1551.5%+2.0pp49.5%

Serve · 2–3

52.5%1st Serve In14/15 · 11/15+16.1pp68.6%

72.7%1st Serve Won14/15 · 11/15+7.3pp65.4%

49.5%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 11/15+2.7pp52.2%

3.7Aces / Match14/15 · 11/15+1.85.5

2.0Double Faults / Match14/15 · 11/150.6 fewer2.6

Return · 1–0

41.1%Return Pts Won14/15 · 11/15+4.4pp36.7%

Pressure · 1–1

44.7%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 11/15+2.3pp42.4%

56.7%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 11/15+17.4pp74.1%

Points · 1–0

51.5%Total Pts Won14/15 · 11/15+2.0pp49.5%