FranceRennes - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Matisse Bobichon #639France2Eliakim Coulibaly #337Côte d’Ivoire0

Sets 6-4 · 6-4Tue 15 Sept 2026, 11:10 Predictions gradedFirst RoundI.hard

Predictions4–267%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageEliakim Coulibaly · 302 places

Matisse Bobichon

France

Bobichon, 24, is listed as right-handed. Reliable public profile information does not establish a preferred surface or career-high date.

Current ranking: #639
Peak ranking: #633
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Eliakim Coulibaly

Côte d’Ivoire

Coulibaly, 24, is the left-hander in this matchup and lists hard as his preferred surface. His highest ATP singles ranking was No. 263 on 14 July 2025.

Current ranking: #337
Peak ranking: #263 · 2025
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Sep 2026, 22:25 · Europe/Bucharest

Bobichon's perfect indoor hard record this week and Coulibaly's two-month layoff give the home player a clear form edge.

Back Bobichon on the moneyline at 2.20 for a 9.5-point value edge. The match could be closer than expected if Coulibaly finds his level, but Bobichon's momentum is the safer bet.

Context

Coulibaly, 337th, is a left-hander with a two-handed backhand and has been a consistent hard-court competitor, winning 19 of 27 hard matches in 2026.
His last completed match was on July 3, when he retired against Calvin Hemery after just three games. He also retired on June 26 against Francisco Rocha. That pattern suggests a possible lingering issue, and the two-month gap without competitive play could leave him short of match sharpness. If he is not fully fit, Bobichon may be able to extend rallies and test his movement early.
- Coulibaly retired in his most recent match on July 3, 2026, against Calvin Hemery after losing the first set 1-2.
- He also retired on June 26, 2026, against Francisco Rocha while trailing 2-4.
- He has not played a completed match since July 2, 2026, a span of over two months.
Bobichon, ranked 605, has a modest career record but has been active on hard courts, winning 14 of 28 matches in 2026.
His two indoor wins came this week in Rennes qualifying, against Justin Boulais and Alex Kobelt. Those victories show he is comfortable on this surface, but two matches are not enough to prove a strong indoor edge. Coulibaly has played only one indoor match in 2026, a loss, so the surface may slightly favor Bobichon, but the evidence is thin.
- Bobichon is 2-0 on indoor hard in his last 15 matches, with wins over Boulais and Kobelt.
- Coulibaly is 0-1 on indoor hard in 2026, losing his only match.
- Bobichon's overall hard-court record in 2026 is 14-14, while Coulibaly's is 19-8.
Coulibaly's career first-serve percentage is 62%, and he has won 71% of first-serve points, showing a reliable serve when it lands.
In the last 15 matches, Coulibaly has won 71.7% of first-serve points compared to Bobichon's 73.4%, but Coulibaly's return points won is 41.2% versus Bobichon's 39.0%. However, Coulibaly averages 3.8 double faults per match, which could give Bobichon free points. If Coulibaly's serve is not fully sharp after the layoff, Bobichon may get more looks at second serves.
- Coulibaly's last-15 first-serve points won: 71.7%; Bobichon's: 73.4%.
- Coulibaly's last-15 return points won: 41.2%; Bobichon's: 39.0%.
- Coulibaly averages 3.8 double faults per match in his last 15, compared to Bobichon's 2.8.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Bobichon's recent indoor hard form and current tournament momentum give him a slight edge over a rusty Coulibaly.
- Bobichon is 2-0 on indoor hard in the last 15 matches, winning 100% of sets and 62.5% of games.
- Coulibaly is 0-1 on indoor hard this season and has not played since July 3, 2026.
- Bobichon has won 10 of his last 15 matches overall, including two straight wins this week in Rennes.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMatisse BobichonEstimated chance55%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive baseline and both players' moderate game totals suggest a match that could exceed 21.5 games.
- Bobichon's last 15 matches average 22.8 total games per match.
- Coulibaly's last 15 matches average 21.5 total games per match.
- Both players have similar games-won percentages around 53-54%.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive, with both players capable of holding serve early.
- Bobichon's recent indoor hard first sets: 7-6 and 6-2.
- Coulibaly's last 15 matches include several tight first sets with tiebreaks.
- Both players have first-serve points won around 72%.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bobichon's strong start tendency on indoor hard and Coulibaly's lack of recent match play support a first-set edge.
- Bobichon won the first set in both of his indoor hard matches in the last 15.
- Coulibaly's last match was a retirement loss on clay over two months ago.
- Bobichon's first-set win conversion rate is 89% career-wide.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMatisse BobichonEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players have solid ace counts, and the indoor hard surface may slightly favor serving.
- Bobichon averages 6.5 aces per match in his last 15.
- Coulibaly averages 5.3 aces per match in his last 15.
- Combined average is 11.8 aces per match.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 11.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Coulibaly's higher double fault rate and the pressure of a close match could push the total over.
- Bobichon averages 2.8 double faults per match in his last 15.
- Coulibaly averages 3.8 double faults per match in his last 15.
- Combined average is 6.6 double faults per match.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance50%

Previous match context available

Matisse Bobichon

10W 5L

7-6(6) 6-3#403Justin Boulais 6-2 6-4#1755Alex Kobelt

7-6(4) 6-1#143Jurij Rodionov

3-6 7-6(5) 6-3#403Justin Boulais

6-3 5-7 6-0#881Adil Kalyanpur

6-4 5-7 6-1#621Nicolas Tepmahc

6-3 6-4#409Robin Bertrand

7-5 6-4#868Adan Freire Da Silva

6-4 3-3 ret.—Daniel Jovanovski

6-4 5-7 6-4—Benjamin O'Connell

6-4 6-4#787Scott Jones

6-2 6-4—Ymerali Ibraimi

6-3 6-2#386Laurent Lokoli

6-4 7-6(5)#734Benjamin Pietri

6-2 4-6 6-4#466Viktor Durasovic

Eliakim Coulibaly

9W 6L

1-2 ret.#322Calvin Hemery

6-4 6-2#623Alexander Vasilev

5-7 6-3 6-2#432Pavel Lagutin

4-2 ret.#887Francisco Rocha

6-4 1-6 6-3#481Patrick Schoen

4-6 6-2 6-2#550John Echeverria

6-1 3-6 6-1#252Felix Balshaw

7-5 6-4#267Harold Mayot

6-7(2) 6-3 6-2#738Devin Badenhorst

6-3 6-1#648Filip Peliwo

2-6 6-4 7-5#294Giles Hussey

3-6 6-4 7-6(2)#416Semen Pankin

7-6(4) 6-1#818Arda Azkara

6-4 6-2#856Preston Brown

2-6 6-3 6-1#158Gauthier Onclin

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MBMatisse BobichonBobichon

Last 15

5–2

9 core stats · 2 even

Eliakim CoulibalyCoulibalyEC

Matisse Bobichon carries the stronger recent form — Eliakim Coulibaly's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

1st Serve In60.5%—59.9%

1st Serve Won73.4%+1.7pp71.7%

2nd Serve Won52.9%+4.2pp48.7%

Aces / Match6.5+1.25.3

Double Faults / Match2.81.0 fewer3.8

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won39.0%+2.2pp41.2%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted44.6%+6.1pp38.5%

Break Pts Saved63.3%+4.0pp67.3%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won51.9%—51.9%

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

60.5%1st Serve In—59.9%

73.4%1st Serve Won+1.7pp71.7%

52.9%2nd Serve Won+4.2pp48.7%

6.5Aces / Match+1.25.3

2.8Double Faults / Match1.0 fewer3.8

Return · 0–1

39.0%Return Pts Won+2.2pp41.2%

Pressure · 1–1

44.6%Break Pts Converted+6.1pp38.5%

63.3%Break Pts Saved+4.0pp67.3%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.9%Total Pts Won—51.9%