FranceRennes - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Justin Boulais #398Canada0Matisse Bobichon #639France2

Sets 6-7 · 3-6Mon 14 Sept 2026, 13:40 Predictions gradedQ3I.hard

Predictions4–357%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJustin Boulais · 241 places

Justin Boulais

Canada

Canadian player; ITF records his ATP singles career high as No. 363 in June 2026. Public profile sources identify him as a left-hander with a one-handed backhand.

Current ranking: #398
Peak ranking: #363 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 183 cm

Matisse Bobichon

France

Bobichon, 24, is listed as right-handed. Reliable public profile information does not establish a preferred surface or career-high date.

Current ranking: #639
Peak ranking: #633
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Sep 2026, 03:09 · Europe/Bucharest

Bobichon is the clear favorite based on a recent H2H win and stronger form, with a 58% model probability against odds implying 41.7%.

Back Bobichon on the moneyline at 2.40 for a solid edge, though his recent retirement is a minor concern.

Context

Bobichon, ranked 639, is the lower-ranked player but has won 10 of his last 15 matches.
He beat Boulais just seven days ago in the same tournament, recovering from a set down. That result gives him a clear psychological and tactical reference for this rematch, though Boulais will be motivated to adjust.
- On 2026-09-07, Bobichon defeated Boulais 3-6 7-6(5) 6-3 in round 3 of the same tournament.
- Bobichon won the last two sets after losing the first, showing his ability to adapt mid-match.
Bobichon's last-15 record is 10-5 with a 66.7% win rate, while Boulais is 6-9 with a 40% win rate.
Bobichon has also been more efficient on serve, winning 73% of first-serve points compared to Boulais' 70.1%. However, Boulais has faced stronger opponents on average, which may partially explain the gap.
- Bobichon last 15: 10 wins, 5 losses (66.7% win rate).
- Boulais last 15: 6 wins, 9 losses (40% win rate).
- Bobichon first-serve points won: 73.0% vs Boulais 70.1%.
Boulais' return points won percentage is 38.8% over his last 15 matches, below the tour average.
His double fault rate of 4.5 per match is high and could be costly in tight games. Bobichon's stronger serve and cleaner ball-striking may exploit these weaknesses.
- Boulais return points won: 38.8% (last 15).
- Boulais double faults per match: 4.5 (last 15).
- Bobichon double faults per match: 2.6 (last 15).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Bobichon has stronger recent form and a direct H2H win, giving him the edge in this Bo3 match.
- Bobichon won the only H2H meeting 3-6 7-6(5) 6-3 on 2026-09-07.
- Bobichon's last 15 overall record is 10-5 (66.7%) vs Boulais' 6-9 (40%).
- Bobichon's last 15 return points won is 39.6% vs Boulais' 38.8%.
- Bobichon's last 15 break point conversion is 43.9% vs Boulais' 37%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMatisse BobichonEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H went three sets and both players have moderate game totals, making over 22.5 games plausible.
- Their H2H match had 31 games (3-6 7-6 6-3).
- Boulais' last 15 average match duration is 119.9 minutes, suggesting longer matches.
- Bobichon's last 15 average match duration is 109.6 minutes.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players have solid first-serve numbers, which could lead to a tight first set with over 9.5 games.
- H2H first set was 6-3 (9 games).
- Boulais' last 15 first serve points won is 70.1%, indicating competitive service games.
- Bobichon's last 15 first serve points won is 73%.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bobichon's superior first-serve performance and H2H first-set win support a slight edge in set 1.
- Bobichon won the first set 6-3 in their H2H meeting.
- Bobichon's last 15 first serve points won is 73% vs Boulais' 70.1%.
- Bobichon's last 15 first serve in is 60.2% vs Boulais' 56.7%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMatisse BobichonEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Boulais' high double fault rate and combined averages support over 6.5 double faults.
- Boulais averages 4.5 double faults per match in last 15.
- Bobichon averages 2.6 double faults per match in last 15.
- Combined average double faults per match is 7.1.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L3-6 7-6(5) 6-3Justin Boulais#403vMatisse Bobichon#639Sep 7, 2026

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Justin Boulais

6W 9L

7-6(0) 6-2—Theo Arribage

3-6 7-6(5) 6-3#639Matisse Bobichon

6-0 6-3—Matis Roche

7-6(4) 6-3#97Benjamin Bonzi

7-5 7-6(4)#93Adam Walton

6-3 6-3—Connor Church

5-7 6-2 7-5#299Johannus Monday

6-1 6-3#247August Holmgren

7-5 6-1#396Yuta Shimizu

6-2 7-6(6)#154Zhizhen Zhang

7-6(4) 6-0#467Kenta Miyoshi

6-4 6-2#608Millen Hurrion

6-7(8) 6-4 7-6(3)#370Tung-Lin Wu

7-6(2) 4-6 6-3#312Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-7(6) 7-5 6-3#513Enzo Aguiard

Matisse Bobichon

10W 5L

6-2 6-4#1755Alex Kobelt

7-6(4) 6-1#143Jurij Rodionov

3-6 7-6(5) 6-3#403Justin Boulais

6-3 5-7 6-0#881Adil Kalyanpur

6-4 5-7 6-1#621Nicolas Tepmahc

6-3 6-4#409Robin Bertrand

7-5 6-4#868Adan Freire Da Silva

6-4 3-3 ret.—Daniel Jovanovski

6-4 5-7 6-4—Benjamin O'Connell

6-4 6-4#796Scott Jones

6-2 6-4—Ymerali Ibraimi

6-3 6-2#386Laurent Lokoli

6-4 7-6(5)#786Benjamin Pietri

6-2 4-6 6-4#447Viktor Durasovic

6-0 6-4—Niels Villard

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JBJustin BoulaisBoulais

Last 15

0–9

9 core stats · 0 even

Matisse BobichonBobichonMB

Matisse Bobichon carries the stronger recent form — Justin Boulais's route runs through return pts won.

Serve · 0–5

1st Serve In56.7%+3.5pp60.2%

1st Serve Won70.1%+2.9pp73.0%

2nd Serve Won53.1%+1.4pp54.5%

Aces / Match3.9+2.46.3

Double Faults / Match4.51.9 fewer2.6

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won38.8%+0.8pp39.6%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted37.0%+6.9pp43.9%

Break Pts Saved60.6%+1.8pp62.4%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.3%+2.0pp52.3%

Serve · 0–5

56.7%1st Serve In+3.5pp60.2%

70.1%1st Serve Won+2.9pp73.0%

53.1%2nd Serve Won+1.4pp54.5%

3.9Aces / Match+2.46.3

4.5Double Faults / Match1.9 fewer2.6

Return · 0–1

38.8%Return Pts Won+0.8pp39.6%

Pressure · 0–2

37.0%Break Pts Converted+6.9pp43.9%

60.6%Break Pts Saved+1.8pp62.4%

Points · 0–1

50.3%Total Pts Won+2.0pp52.3%