FranceRennes - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Leo Raquillet #665France0Yanis Ghazouani Durand #584France2

Sets 1-6 · 4-6Tue 15 Sept 2026, 10:50 Predictions gradedFirst RoundI.hard

Predictions6–275%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageYanis Ghazouani Durand · 81 places

Leo Raquillet

France

Raquillet is a 20-year-old French right-hander. His ATP career high of No. 634 was recorded in May 2026; available results show more 2026 wins on hard courts than clay, but this is not sufficient to label a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #665
Peak ranking: #634 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Yanis Ghazouani Durand

France

Ghazouani Durand, 26, is the 183cm right-hander in this matchup. He identified hard courts as his preferred surface in July 2026.

Current ranking: #584
Peak ranking: #565 · 2026
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Sep 2026, 22:25 · Europe/Bucharest

Yanis Ghazouani Durand is the clear favorite over Leo Raquillet, with a 2-0 H2H edge, better recent form, and superior hard-court stats.

The best betting angle is Ghazouani Durand to win at 1.44, offering a 2.6-point edge, with additional value in the -3.5 game handicap and over 7.5 total double faults.

Context

Ghazouani Durand, 547th, has won both career meetings against Raquillet, including a straight-sets win on hard court in 2024.
That recent result gives Ghazouani Durand a clear tactical reference and likely confidence edge. Raquillet must adjust quickly, but the sample is small and the surface here is indoor hard, which can play differently.
- On 2026-09-07, Ghazouani Durand beat Raquillet 6-1 6-3 on hard court.
- Ghazouani Durand also won their 2024 meeting 7-6(4) 4-6 6-2.
- Raquillet has never beaten Ghazouani Durand in two attempts.
Yanis Ghazouani Durand, ATP No. 547, is the qualifier in this first-round match against wildcard Leo Raquillet.
He needed three sets in both qualifying wins on 13 and 14 September, so he arrives with two consecutive extended matches already played this week. That workload could leave him less fresh for a main-draw opponent he has dominated recently.
- The Rennes main draw lists Ghazouani Durand as a qualifier against wildcard Raquillet.
- His qualifying wins over Gijs Brouwer and Nikola Slavic both went three sets.
- Stored recent sample: 4 wins from 5 tracked matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Sep 2026, 22:24 · Europe/BucharestL'Équipe – Rennes 2026 singles drawwww.lequipe.fr · 14 Sep 2026TennisTemple – Raquillet vs Ghazouani Durand, Rennes 2026fr.tennistemple.com · 14 Sep 2026
Raquillet, 663rd, has a career hard-court win percentage of 49% and has played most of his recent matches on clay.
In his last three hard-court matches, Raquillet won only 45.8% of games and 39.9% of return points. That suggests he may find it harder to create chances on this surface, especially against an opponent who just beat him comfortably.
- Raquillet's last 3 hard-court matches: 1 win, 2 losses.
- On hard courts in that sample, he won 45.8% of games and 39.9% of return points.
- His clay-court sample over 12 matches shows 51.1% games won and 42.8% return points won.
Ghazouani Durand, 547th, has a career hard-court win percentage of 60.9% and has been playing mostly on hard and indoor hard recently.
His recent hard-court numbers show a high first-serve points won rate of 77.6%, which could put pressure on Raquillet's return game. However, the sample is only four matches, so the trend is not yet firmly established.
- Ghazouani Durand's last 4 hard-court matches: 3 wins, 1 loss.
- He won 77.6% of first-serve points on hard courts in that sample.
- His overall last-15 record is 10-5, with 66.7% match wins.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Ghazouani Durand has superior recent form, surface fit, and a dominant H2H edge, making him the clear favorite.
- H2H: Ghazouani Durand leads 2-0, including 6-1 6-3 on hard on 2026-09-07.
- Last 15 overall: Ghazouani Durand 10-5 (66.7%) vs Raquillet 6-9 (40%).
- Hard surface last 15: Ghazouani Durand 3-1 (75%) vs Raquillet 1-2 (33.3%).
- Ranking: Ghazouani Durand 547 vs Raquillet 663.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonYanis Ghazouani DurandEstimated chance72%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have shown competitive matches with extended sets, and Ghazouani Durand's qualifying workload suggests potential fatigue leading to longer rallies.
- Ghazouani Durand last 15 average duration: 111.9 min; Raquillet 98.5 min.
- Ghazouani Durand recent matches often go three sets (3 of last 5).
- Raquillet's last 15 games per match: 22.3 total games average.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ghazouani Durand's superior form and H2H dominance support a comfortable margin of victory.
- H2H 2026: Ghazouani Durand won by 8 games (12-4).
- Ghazouani Durand last 15 games won pct: 53% vs Raquillet 50.1%.
- Raquillet lost 4 of last 5 matches, often by wide margins.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonYanis Ghazouani Durand -3.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets have been competitive in recent matches, with both players averaging near 10 games.
- Raquillet's last 15 first sets average 9.8 games.
- Ghazouani Durand's last 15 first sets average 9.6 games.
- H2H first sets: 7 games (2026) and 13 games (2024).
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ghazouani Durand has consistently started strong against Raquillet and has a higher first-set conversion rate.
- H2H first set: Ghazouani Durand won 6-1 in 2026 and 7-6(4) in 2024.
- Ghazouani Durand first set win conversion career: 86% vs Raquillet 85%.
- Raquillet lost first set in 3 of last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonYanis Ghazouani DurandEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ghazouani Durand's dominance in H2H and current form suggests a straight-set victory is more likely than a three-setter.
- H2H 2026: straight sets.
- Ghazouani Durand won 4 of last 5 matches, 2 in straight sets.
- Raquillet lost 4 of last 5 matches, 2 in straight sets.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ghazouani Durand's high double fault rate, especially on hard courts, drives the combined total over 7.5.
- Ghazouani Durand last 15 double faults per match: 5.1; Raquillet 2.7.
- Combined average double faults per match: 7.8.
- Ghazouani Durand hard surface double faults per match: 5.8.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ghazouani Durand's serve is a weapon on hard courts, and combined ace counts often exceed 5.5 in their matches.
- Ghazouani Durand last 15 aces per match: 2.7; Raquillet 1.7.
- Combined average aces per match: 4.4.
- Ghazouani Durand hard surface aces per match: 4.3.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Given the straight-set trend in H2H and recent form, a tiebreak is less likely than not.
- H2H 2026: no tiebreak; 2024: one tiebreak in first set.
- Raquillet tiebreak win pct career: 47%; Ghazouani Durand 52%.
- Both players have moderate tiebreak rates, but recent matches show fewer tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

0-2 (2 meetings)

L6-1 6-3Leo Raquillet#663vYanis Ghazouani Durand#547Sep 7, 2026

L7-6(4) 4-6 6-2Leo Raquillet#663vYanis Ghazouani Durand#547Mar 12, 2024

2 total meetings

Previous match context available

Leo Raquillet

6W 9L

6-1 6-3#547Yanis Ghazouani Durand

6-2 6-2#742Matteo Covato

6-3 4-6 6-4—Lenny Couturier

6-0 6-2—Matis Roche

6-3 2-6 7-5#422Benjamin Hassan

4-6 6-3 6-0—Adrien Berrut

3-6 6-0 7-5#777Oskari Paldanius

3-6 6-3 6-4#311Georgii Kravchenko

7-6(2) 6-4#186Jan Kumstat

6-3 4-6 6-2#201Lorenzo Giustino

3-6 6-4 6-3#685Franco Ribero

6-2 6-1#867Tomohiro Masabayashi

6-1 3-6 7-5#341Marko Topo

6-4 6-2#233Kilian Feldbausch

7-5 ret.#250Pavel Kotov

Yanis Ghazouani Durand

10W 5L

4-6 6-3 6-2#878Nikola Slavic 6-3 2-6 6-4#898Gijs Brouwer

6-1 7-6(7)#149Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

2-6 6-3 7-5#572Maxime Janvier

6-1 6-3#663Leo Raquillet

6-3 6-2—Gray Voelzke

7-5 1-6 6-3#893Szymon Kielan

2-6 6-2 6-2#861Nicolas Parizzia

6-2 6-1#634Gabriele Bosio

0-6 6-4 6-2#893Peter Buldorini

6-3 6-7(4) 6-4—Gabriele Crivellaro

6-1 6-2#435Geoffrey Blancaneaux

6-1 6-3—Arthur Bellegy

6-2 2-6 6-2—Pablo Pradat

6-3 6-1#386Laurent Lokoli

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

LRLeo RaquilletRaquillet

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Yanis Ghazouani DurandDurandYD

Yanis Ghazouani Durand carries the stronger recent form — Leo Raquillet's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In65.5%+6.1pp59.4%

1st Serve Won63.7%+3.4pp67.1%

2nd Serve Won44.6%+1.4pp46.0%

Aces / Match1.7+1.02.7

Double Faults / Match2.72.4 fewer5.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won42.3%+1.8pp44.1%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted54.5%+8.4pp46.1%

Break Pts Saved48.2%+8.9pp57.1%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.7%+1.7pp51.4%

Serve · 2–3

65.5%1st Serve In+6.1pp59.4%

63.7%1st Serve Won+3.4pp67.1%

44.6%2nd Serve Won+1.4pp46.0%

1.7Aces / Match+1.02.7

2.7Double Faults / Match2.4 fewer5.1

Return · 0–1

42.3%Return Pts Won+1.8pp44.1%

Pressure · 1–1

54.5%Break Pts Converted+8.4pp46.1%

48.2%Break Pts Saved+8.9pp57.1%

Points · 0–1

49.7%Total Pts Won+1.7pp51.4%