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Predictions graded

Jesse Delaney #898Australia0Petr Bar Biryukov #285Russia2

Sets 3-6 · 4-6Tue 15 Sept 2026, 10:55 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions5–363%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantagePetr Bar Biryukov · 613 places

Jesse Delaney

Australia

Australian right-hander, age 27. ITF lists clay as his preferred surface and a career-best ATP singles ranking of No. 833 in September 2025.

Current ranking: #898
Peak ranking: #833 · 2025
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Petr Bar Biryukov

Russia

Born 28 February 2002, Bar Biryukov is a left-handed player with a two-handed backhand. Public results data records a career-best singles ranking of No. 267 on 27 October 2025; no reliable stated preferred surface was found.

Current ranking: #285
Peak ranking: #267 · 2025
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Sep 2026, 22:36 · Europe/Bucharest

Petr Bar Biryukov is a heavy favorite over Jesse Delaney, with superior ranking, form, and serve stats.

The match winner market has no value, but Biryukov -3.5 games, over 21.5 total games, and over 12.5 total aces are solid betting angles. Expect Biryukov to win in straight sets.

Context

Biryukov, ranked 288, is a left-hander with a big serve and a 59.6% career win rate. Delaney, ranked 898, has a much lower career win rate of 45.1% and relies less on free points.
Biryukov's recent serving numbers are strong: 10.1 aces per match and 76.5% first-serve points won over his last 15 matches. Delaney's return numbers are modest (37.7% return points won), so Biryukov should be able to hold serve comfortably and apply scoreboard pressure.
- Biryukov last 15 overall: 10.1 aces per match, 76.5% first-serve points won.
- Delaney last 15 overall: 37.7% return points won.
- Biryukov career first-serve win rate: 75%; Delaney career return points won: 37%.
Delaney is a 26-year-old Australian ranked 898, with a career win rate of 45.1%. He has struggled against higher-ranked opponents this season.
Delaney's last five hard-court matches include losses to Brady (719), Aguiard (430), and Haliak (880), with only one win over an unranked player. His recent form suggests he will struggle to stay competitive against Biryukov, who is ranked 288 and has a stronger recent record.
- Delaney last 5 hard-court matches: 1 win, 4 losses.
- Losses to Patrick Brady (6-1 6-0), Enzo Aguiard (6-3 7-6), Mikalai Haliak (7-5 6-1).
- Delaney overall last 15 record: 5-10.
Biryukov is a 24-year-old Russian ranked 288, with a career win rate of 59.6%. He has been a consistent Challenger-level player but has had some physical issues recently.
Biryukov's last four matches include losses to Denis Yevseyev, Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong, and Qian Sun, plus a retirement against Inchauspe. While his overall recent record is positive, this recent dip could give Delaney a chance if Biryukov is not fully fit or confident.
- Biryukov last 4 matches: 1 win, 3 losses, including a retirement.
- Retirement against Paul Inchauspe on 2026-08-04 (7-6(4) 0-1 ret.).
- Biryukov overall last 15 record: 9-6.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Petr Bar Biryukov

1.02fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 98%

0.0ppshort

Biryukov's superior ranking, recent form, and hard-court record give him a clear edge over Delaney.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.02
The read
Biryukov's superior ranking, recent form, and hard-court record give him a clear edge over Delaney.
- Petr Bar Biryukov last 15 overall record 9-6 (60%), Jesse Delaney 5-10 (33.3%)
- Biryukov ranking 288 vs Delaney 898
- Biryukov career hard-court wins 156 vs Delaney 142, but Biryukov 2026 hard record 22-13 vs Delaney 10-16
- Delaney last 15 hard record 4-5, Biryukov last 15 hard record 6-4
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPetr Bar BiryukovEstimated chance78%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined average games per match suggests a competitive match likely to exceed 21.5 games.
- Biryukov last 15 average games per match 22.2 (333 games / 15 matches)
- Delaney last 15 average games per match 20.7 (311 games / 15 matches)
- Both players have high double fault rates: Biryukov 5.1 per match, Delaney 2.9 per match
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Biryukov's superior serve and game win percentage suggest he can cover a -3.5 game handicap.
- Biryukov last 15 games won 52.3%, Delaney 44.1%
- Biryukov last 15 hard games won 53.5%, Delaney 46%
- Biryukov first serve points won 76.5%, Delaney 62.6%
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonPetr Bar Biryukov -3.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Average set length for both players is near 10 games, making over 9.5 a reasonable bet.
- Biryukov last 15 average games per set 10.1 (333 games / 33 sets)
- Delaney last 15 average games per set 9.7 (311 games / 32 sets)
- Both players have high double fault rates, potentially extending games
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Biryukov's strong serve and first-set conversion rate make him likely to take the opening set.
- Biryukov first-set win conversion 85% career, Delaney 83%
- Biryukov last 15 first serve points won 76.5%, Delaney 62.6%
- Biryukov last 15 aces per match 10.1, Delaney 3.0
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonPetr Bar BiryukovEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Biryukov's dominance in serve and set win percentage suggests a straight-sets victory is likely.
- Biryukov last 15 sets won 60.6%, Delaney 37.5%
- Biryukov last 15 hard sets won 63.6%, Delaney 47.4%
- Biryukov first serve points won 76.5%, Delaney 62.6%
BetBugs · Set BettingwonPetr Bar Biryukov 2-0Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Biryukov's strong serve and set win percentage make a straight-sets win more likely than a three-setter.
- Biryukov last 15 sets won 60.6%, Delaney 37.5%
- Biryukov last 15 hard sets won 63.6%, Delaney 47.4%
- Biryukov first serve points won 76.5%, Delaney 62.6%
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Biryukov's high ace rate alone likely pushes total aces over 12.5.
- Biryukov last 15 aces per match 10.1, Delaney 3.0
- Biryukov career aces 2753 in 327 matches (8.4 per match)
- Delaney career aces 778 in 368 matches (2.1 per match)
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 12.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' high double fault rates make over 7.5 double faults likely.
- Biryukov last 15 double faults per match 5.1, Delaney 2.9
- Combined average double faults per match 8.0
- Biryukov career double faults 1378 in 327 matches (4.2 per match)
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have shown a tendency to play tiebreaks, increasing the chance of at least one in this match.
- Biryukov tiebreak win percentage 61% career, Delaney 45%
- Biryukov last 15 matches include 5 tiebreaks in 15 matches
- Delaney last 15 matches include 4 tiebreaks in 15 matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%

Previous match context available

Jesse Delaney

5W 10L

6-4 6-3—Thijmen Loof 7-6(5) 7-6(3)#686Yusuke Takahashi

7-5 6-1#880Mikalai Haliak

6-3 7-6(1)#430Enzo Aguiard

6-1 6-0#719Patrick Brady

7-5 6-4#584Alexander Weis

6-4 6-1—Alberto Garcia Garcia

6-1 6-0#517Peter Makk

7-5 1-6 6-3#874Marcus Walters

6-1 6-3#742Matteo Covato

6-4 6-1#613Fryderyk Lechno-Wasiutynski

3-0 ret.#502Tai Sach

4-6 7-5 10-8—Hiromasa Koyama

6-4 6-2#876Corban Crowther

6-3 6-7(3) 10-6—Elijah Cham

Petr Bar Biryukov

9W 6L

7-6(6) 6-7(1) 6-2#417Denis Yevseyev

7-6(3) 6-3#464Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

6-3 6-4#867Qian Sun

7-5 6-3#635Kokoro Isomura

7-6(3) 6-4#794Tianhui Zhang

6-4 6-7(6) 6-4—James Van Herzeele

6-4 6-4—Zhiheng Xia

6-4 6-2#447Jie Cui

6-2 6-3#768Taisei Ichikawa

7-6(4) 0-1 ret.#585Paul Inchauspe

3-6 6-2 6-4#721Grigory Shebekin

7-6(1) 6-2—Damir Zhalgasbay

6-2 7-5#531Shunsuke Mitsui

7-6(3) 7-6(5)—Andrei Kunitsyn

6-2 6-4#895Saveliy Ivanov

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JDJesse DelaneyDelaney

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Petr Bar BiryukovBiryukovPB

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In12/15 · 15/1559.0%+3.2pp55.8%

1st Serve Won12/15 · 15/1562.6%+13.9pp76.5%

2nd Serve Won12/15 · 15/1544.1%+8.9pp53.0%

Aces / Match12/15 · 15/153.0+7.110.1

Double Faults / Match12/15 · 15/152.92.2 fewer5.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won12/15 · 15/1537.7%+3.5pp34.2%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted12/15 · 15/1552.8%+13.1pp39.7%

Break Pts Saved12/15 · 15/1560.6%—61.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won12/15 · 15/1546.6%+4.0pp50.6%

Serve · 2–3

59.0%1st Serve In12/15 · 15/15+3.2pp55.8%

62.6%1st Serve Won12/15 · 15/15+13.9pp76.5%

44.1%2nd Serve Won12/15 · 15/15+8.9pp53.0%

3.0Aces / Match12/15 · 15/15+7.110.1

2.9Double Faults / Match12/15 · 15/152.2 fewer5.1

Return · 1–0

37.7%Return Pts Won12/15 · 15/15+3.5pp34.2%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

52.8%Break Pts Converted12/15 · 15/15+13.1pp39.7%

60.6%Break Pts Saved12/15 · 15/15—61.3%

Points · 0–1

46.6%Total Pts Won12/15 · 15/15+4.0pp50.6%