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Predictions graded

Thijmen Loof #1507Netherlands0Jesse Delaney #898Australia2

Sets 4-6 · 3-6Mon 14 Sept 2026, 11:20 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions0–80%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJesse Delaney · 609 places

Thijmen Loof

Netherlands

Loof, 24, is the 196 cm right-hander in this matchup. His singles career-high is No. 961, reached in October 2024.

Current ranking: #1507
Peak ranking: #961 · 2024
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Jesse Delaney

Australia

Australian right-hander, age 27. ITF lists clay as his preferred surface and a career-best ATP singles ranking of No. 833 in September 2025.

Current ranking: #898
Peak ranking: #833 · 2025
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 22:25 · Europe/Bucharest

Loof's superior hard-court serve and point-winning stats give him the edge, but Delaney's competitiveness could push the match to three sets.

Bet on over 21.5 total games and over 8.5 total aces, while avoiding the match winner market due to poor value.

Context

Loof, 25, is a tall right-hander from the Netherlands with a big serve and a two-handed backhand. He has spent most of his career on hard and clay courts.
In the last 15 matches, Loof has a 44.4% win rate on hard courts compared to Delaney's 33.3%. Loof wins 70% of first-serve points and 36% of return points on hard, while Delaney wins 64.6% and 31.5% respectively. This gives Loof a clear edge in both serving and returning on this surface, though the sample sizes are small.
- Loof's last 15 hard-court record: 4-5 (44.4% wins).
- Delaney's last 15 hard-court record: 3-6 (33.3% wins).
- Loof wins 70% of first-serve points on hard; Delaney wins 64.6%.
- Loof wins 36% of return points on hard; Delaney wins 31.5%.
Delaney, 28, is an Australian right-hander ranked 898. He has a career win rate of 45% and has played mostly on hard courts.
Delaney's last 15 matches show a 26.7% win rate, with only 4 wins. He retired in one match and lost 6-1 6-0 and 6-1 6-0 in two others. This poor run suggests he may struggle to compete with Loof, who has been more competitive recently.
- Delaney's last 15 overall record: 4-11 (26.7% wins).
- He retired in a match against Tai Sach on 2026-06-16.
- He lost 6-1 6-0 to Patrick Brady and 6-1 6-0 to Peter Makk.
- Loof's last 15 overall record: 5-10 (33.3% wins).
Loof's height of 196 cm gives him a natural serving advantage. He has a career first-serve percentage of 63%.
In his last 15 matches, Loof has hit 110 aces, an average of 7.3 per match. Delaney has hit 35 aces in 12 tracked matches, an average of 2.9. Loof also wins 69.9% of first-serve points compared to Delaney's 61.6%. This serving edge could be decisive on a hard court.
- Loof's aces per match in last 15: 7.3 (110 aces in 15 matches).
- Delaney's aces per match in last 15: 2.9 (35 aces in 12 tracked matches).
- Loof's first-serve points won: 69.9%.
- Delaney's first-serve points won: 61.6%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Thijmen Loof

1.44fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 69.4%

0.0ppshort

Loof's superior recent hard-court form and serve efficiency give him a clear edge over Delaney.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Loof's superior recent hard-court form and serve efficiency give him a clear edge over Delaney.
- Loof last 15 overall record 5-10 (33.3%) vs Delaney 4-11 (26.7%)
- Loof hard-court last 15 record 4-5 (44.4%) vs Delaney 3-6 (33.3%)
- Loof first-serve points won 69.9% vs Delaney 61.6% in last 15
- Loof total points won 48.9% vs Delaney 45.5% in last 15
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostThijmen LoofEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches trend toward longer contests, supporting over 21.5 total games.
- Loof last 15 average 23.7 games per match; Delaney average 20.8
- Loof hard-court last 15 average 23.7 games; Delaney hard-court average 22.1
- Both players have played multiple three-set matches recently
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets for both players average near or above 10 games, making over 9.5 likely.
- Loof last 15 first-set average 9.8 games; Delaney 9.3
- Loof hard-court first-set average 10.0 games; Delaney 9.4
- Both players have tiebreak history in recent first sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Loof's superior serve and return stats support a modest game handicap cover.
- Loof average games won per match 10.7 vs Delaney 8.8 in last 15
- Loof hard-court average games won 11.1 vs Delaney 9.6
- Loof's serve advantage suggests a potential margin of 2-3 games
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostThijmen Loof -2.5Estimated chance50%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Loof's stronger serve and recent first-set success make him the likely set 1 winner.
- Loof first-set win conversion career 86% vs Delaney 83%
- Loof won first set in 3 of last 5 matches; Delaney won first set in 2 of last 5
- Loof first-serve points won 69.9% vs Delaney 61.6% in last 15
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostThijmen LoofEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Loof's high ace rate on hard courts combined with Delaney's modest ace count supports over 8.5 total aces.
- Loof averages 7.3 aces per match in last 15; Delaney 2.9
- Loof hard-court aces per match 8.1; Delaney hard-court 3.0
- Combined expected aces around 10.4 based on recent averages
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players frequently engage in tiebreaks, making at least one tiebreak likely.
- Loof has played tiebreaks in 5 of last 15 matches; Delaney in 6 of last 15
- Loof tiebreak win percentage career 40%; Delaney 45%
- Both players have recent first-set tiebreak history
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Delaney's higher double-fault rate pushes the combined total near the over line.
- Loof averages 2.1 double faults per match in last 15; Delaney 3.3
- Loof hard-court double faults 2.3; Delaney hard-court 3.1
- Combined expected double faults around 5.4
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Thijmen Loof

5W 10L

7-6(3) 5-7 6-3#544Maxim Zhukov

6-7(4) 6-4 ret.#551Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

6-3 6-4#763Uisung Park

7-6(3) 4-6 6-2#379Juan Pablo Ficovich

5-7 6-3 7-5#350Ivan Marrero Curbelo

7-6(2) 6-4#867Samuel Alejandro Linde Palacios

6-3 6-3#714Michael Vrbensky

6-7(4) 6-2 6-4#900Shunsuke Nakagawa

6-1 7-6(5)#470Cannon Kingsley

7-6(6) 6-2#533Aziz Ouakaa

6-7(5) 6-3 7-6(3)—Tanguy Genier

6-1 6-3#796Gabriele Pennaforti

6-3 6-4#885Facundo Juarez

6-3 6-0#895Matthew Summers

6-3 6-2—Blake Bayldon

Jesse Delaney

4W 11L

7-6(5) 7-6(3)#691Yusuke Takahashi

7-5 6-1#880Mikalai Haliak

6-3 7-6(1)#513Enzo Aguiard

6-1 6-0#716Patrick Brady

7-5 6-4#584Alexander Weis

6-4 6-1—Alberto Garcia Garcia

6-1 6-0#509Peter Makk

7-5 1-6 6-3#874Marcus Walters

6-1 6-3#753Matteo Covato

6-4 6-1#613Fryderyk Lechno-Wasiutynski

3-0 ret.#516Tai Sach

4-6 7-5 10-8—Hiromasa Koyama

6-4 6-2#876Corban Crowther

6-3 6-7(3) 10-6—Elijah Cham

7-6(4) 6-1#365Jake Delaney

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TLThijmen LoofLoof

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Jesse DelaneyDelaneyJD

Thijmen Loof carries the stronger recent form — Jesse Delaney's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 5–0

1st Serve In15/15 · 12/1560.2%+1.7pp58.5%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 12/1569.9%+8.3pp61.6%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 12/1553.6%+9.0pp44.6%

Aces / Match15/15 · 12/157.3+4.42.9

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 12/152.11.2 fewer3.3

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won15/15 · 12/1535.3%—35.9%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 12/1534.6%+17.6pp52.2%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 12/1555.7%+3.5pp59.2%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 12/1548.9%+3.4pp45.5%

Serve · 5–0

60.2%1st Serve In15/15 · 12/15+1.7pp58.5%

69.9%1st Serve Won15/15 · 12/15+8.3pp61.6%

53.6%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 12/15+9.0pp44.6%

7.3Aces / Match15/15 · 12/15+4.42.9

2.1Double Faults / Match15/15 · 12/151.2 fewer3.3

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

35.3%Return Pts Won15/15 · 12/15—35.9%

Pressure · 0–2

34.6%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 12/15+17.6pp52.2%

55.7%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 12/15+3.5pp59.2%

Points · 1–0

48.9%Total Pts Won15/15 · 12/15+3.4pp45.5%