ItalyBiella - ItalyFinished

Predictions graded

Izan Almazan Valiente #491Spain2Franco Agamenone #285Italy0

Sets 6-4 · 6-3Tue 15 Sept 2026, 08:10 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions4–267%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFranco Agamenone · 206 places

Izan Almazan Valiente

Spain

Almazan Valiente, 20, is the right-hander in this matchup. He reached a best ranking of No. 487 in August 2026 and is currently No. 491.

Current ranking: #491
Peak ranking: #487 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 190 cm

Franco Agamenone

Italy

Agamenone, 33, is the right-hander in this matchup and lists clay as his preferred surface. He reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 108 in August 2022.

Current ranking: #285
Peak ranking: #108 · 2022
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Sep 2026, 22:14 · Europe/Bucharest

Almazan Valiente's superior recent form, especially on clay, and better return/break metrics make him a strong favorite.

The match winner bet at 2.05 offers a 13.2-point edge with a 62% estimated probability. Agamenone's poor recent record and weaker first serve on clay further support the pick.

Context

Agamenone, 33, is a clay-court specialist ranked 291 and has played over 790 career matches.
He retired at 6-3 4-0 down to Matej Dodig on September 8, and that was his fourth loss in five matches. The retirement is recent enough to question his physical readiness for this first-round match. If he is not fully fit, Valiente can extend rallies and test his movement on clay.
- Agamenone retired from his last match on 2026-09-08 against Matej Dodig at 6-3 4-0.
- He has lost four of his last five matches, with the only win coming against Jack Loge on August 4.
- His last 15 matches show a 33.3% win rate and an average duration of 136.9 minutes, indicating long, taxing matches.
Valiente, 24, is ranked 478 and has a 57.9% career win rate, with a 62% tiebreak win rate.
In his last four clay matches, Valiente won three, including two straight-set wins this week in Biella. His clay stats show a 75% win rate, 64.6% games won, and 46.7% return points won. Agamenone's clay numbers are much weaker: 33.3% win rate, 46.9% games won, and 39.7% return points won. This suggests Valiente is better equipped to control rallies on this surface.
- Valiente's last 4 clay matches: 3 wins, 1 loss, with wins over Ferrari and Covato this week.
- Valiente's clay stats: 75% win rate, 64.6% games won, 46.7% return points won.
- Agamenone's clay stats: 33.3% win rate, 46.9% games won, 39.7% return points won.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.05
The read
Almazan Valiente has stronger recent form and clay-specific performance, with better return and break conversion numbers.
- Last 15 overall record: 9-6 (60%) vs Agamenone 5-10 (33.3%)
- Last 15 clay record: 3-1 (75%) vs Agamenone 5-10 (33.3%)
- Last 15 return points won: 41.3% vs Agamenone 39.7%
- Last 15 break points converted: 51.4% vs Agamenone 47.5%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonIzan Almazan ValienteEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have been involved in competitive matches with high game totals, suggesting a longer match.
- Almazan Valiente last 15 average games per match: 24.3
- Agamenone last 15 average games per match: 26.5
- Both players have played multiple three-set matches recently
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive with both players holding serve at a similar rate.
- Almazan Valiente last 15 clay average set games: 9.9
- Agamenone last 15 clay average set games: 10.2
- Both players have similar serve hold percentages
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Almazan Valiente's superior first serve effectiveness and higher first set conversion rate give him an edge in the opening set.
- Almazan Valiente first set win conversion career: 90%
- Agamenone first set win conversion career: 86%
- Almazan Valiente last 15 clay first serve points won: 71%
- Agamenone last 15 clay first serve points won: 63%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonIzan Almazan ValienteEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages suggest a total above 5.5 is likely.
- Almazan Valiente last 15 aces per match: 3.9
- Agamenone last 15 aces per match: 2.1
- Combined average aces per match: 6.0
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average a high number of double faults, making over 6.5 likely.
- Almazan Valiente last 15 double faults per match: 4.0
- Agamenone last 15 double faults per match: 3.3
- Combined average double faults per match: 7.3
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance55%

Previous match context available

Izan Almazan Valiente

9W 6L

6-1 6-1#493Gianmarco Ferrari 6-3 6-1#742Matteo Covato

1-6 6-4 6-2#472Santiago Rodriguez Taverna

6-2 3-6 6-1#571Saba Purtseladze

3-6 6-4 6-4#332Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

7-5 7-5—Rodrigo Fernandes

7-6(4) 3-6 6-2—Diogo Morais

7-5 3-6 6-3#697Tristan Mccormick

6-3 7-6(4)#661Maxwell Mckennon

6-4 6-4#372Alejo Sanchez Quilez

6-7(3) 6-4 6-3#734Benjamin Pietri

6-3 7-5#486Sergio Callejon Hernando

6-0 4-6 7-5#567Daniel De Jonge

6-3 7-5#697Tristan Mccormick

7-6(5) 2-6 6-2#331Akira Santillan

Franco Agamenone

5W 10L

6-3 4-0 ret.#254Matej Dodig

7-5 6-3#386Massimo Giunta

4-6 6-2 7-6(2)#313Radu Mihai Papoe

7-6(0) 5-7 6-4#450Jack Loge

6-3 6-4#166Marco Cecchinato

6-7(4) 6-4 7-5#235Alex Barrena

7-6(3) 3-6 6-3#224Raul Brancaccio

7-5 7-5#324Duje Ajdukovic

6-3 3-6 7-5#398Luca Castelnuovo

6-3 3-6 7-6(7)#229Stefano Napolitano

6-3 6-7(5) 6-1#373Francesco Forti

3-6 7-6(5) 6-3#264Michele Ribecai

7-5 7-6(2)#461Radu Albot

6-2 6-3#217Kimmer Coppejans

2-6 6-2 6-3#269Filip Cristian Jianu

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

IVIzan Almazan ValienteValiente

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Franco AgamenoneAgamenoneFA

Izan Almazan Valiente carries the stronger recent form — Franco Agamenone's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In60.5%+5.4pp65.9%

1st Serve Won71.4%+8.4pp63.0%

2nd Serve Won49.0%+5.5pp43.5%

Aces / Match3.9+1.82.1

Double Faults / Match4.00.7 fewer3.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won41.3%+1.6pp39.7%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted51.4%+3.9pp47.5%

Break Pts Saved61.3%+3.1pp58.2%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.8%+3.5pp48.3%

Serve · 3–2

60.5%1st Serve In+5.4pp65.9%

71.4%1st Serve Won+8.4pp63.0%

49.0%2nd Serve Won+5.5pp43.5%

3.9Aces / Match+1.82.1

4.0Double Faults / Match0.7 fewer3.3

Return · 1–0

41.3%Return Pts Won+1.6pp39.7%

Pressure · 2–0

51.4%Break Pts Converted+3.9pp47.5%

61.3%Break Pts Saved+3.1pp58.2%

Points · 1–0

51.8%Total Pts Won+3.5pp48.3%