ItalyBiella - ItalyFinished

Predictions graded

Izan Almazan Valiente #491Spain2Matteo Covato #742Italy0

Sets 6-3 · 6-1Sun 13 Sept 2026, 09:50 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions8–0100%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageIzan Almazan Valiente · 251 places

Izan Almazan Valiente

Spain

Almazan Valiente, 20, is the right-hander in this matchup. He reached a best ranking of No. 487 in August 2026 and is currently No. 491.

Current ranking: #491
Peak ranking: #487 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 190 cm

Matteo Covato

Italy

Covato, 21, is a right-hander listed at 203 cm. His recorded singles peak is No. 696 in May 2026.

Current ranking: #742
Peak ranking: #696 · 2026
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 203 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 03:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Almazan Valiente's superior form and return game make him a heavy favorite over Covato, who has lost 15 straight.

Expect a straight-set win for the Spaniard with under 21.5 total games. No value on the moneyline at 1.08; consider set betting or totals instead.

Context

Covato, 23, is ranked No. 753 and has struggled across all surfaces this season, with a 4-15 clay record in 2026.
Covato has not won a match since May 2025, losing all 15 of his most recent outings. His last 15 stats show a 0% win rate, only 11.8% of sets won, and a 32% return points won. In contrast, Almazan Valiente has won 60% of his last 15 matches and 57.9% of sets. This form gap is the dominant factor heading into the match.
- Covato's last 15 matches: 0 wins, 15 losses.
- Covato's last 15 sets won: 4 of 34 (11.8%).
- Almazan Valiente's last 15 matches: 9 wins, 6 losses (60%).
- Covato's 2026 clay record: 4 wins, 15 losses.
Almazan Valiente, 22, is ranked No. 491 and has a 7-4 clay record in 2026.
In his last two clay matches, Almazan Valiente beat Saba Purtseladze (No. 578) in three sets but lost to Santiago Rodriguez Taverna (No. 434) in three sets. His clay stats over those two matches show a 50% win rate, 50% sets won, and 55.1% games won. This small sample suggests he is competitive but not dominant on clay, which could keep the match closer than the overall form gap implies.
- Almazan Valiente's last 2 clay matches: 1 win, 1 loss.
- Clay stats in last 15: 50% record, 50% sets won, 55.1% games won.
- 2026 clay season record: 7 wins, 4 losses.
This is a first-round qualifying match at the Biella Challenger, so both players are competing for a main-draw spot with no exceptional scheduling or availability concerns indicated.
- The match listing identifies the pairing as an ATP Challenger 50 qualifying first-round match at Campo 4 Servizi e Seta.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Sep 2026, 03:10 · Europe/BucharestBiella 2026 match pageen.tennistemple.com · 13 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Izan Almazan Valiente

1.08fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 92.6%

0.0ppshort

Almazan Valiente's far superior recent form and return game give him a decisive edge over Covato, who has lost 15 straight matches.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.08
The read
Almazan Valiente's far superior recent form and return game give him a decisive edge over Covato, who has lost 15 straight matches.
- Almazan Valiente last 15 overall record 9-6 (60%), Covato 0-15 (0%)
- Almazan Valiente last 15 games won 53.8%, Covato 36.1%
- Almazan Valiente ranking 491 vs Covato 753
- Almazan Valiente last 15 return points won 40.8%, Covato 32.0%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonIzan Almazan ValienteEstimated chance78%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Covato's frequent straight-set losses and low game totals suggest a relatively short match, supporting the under.
- Covato last 15 average games per match: 20.3 (305 games / 15 matches)
- Almazan Valiente last 15 average games per match: 25.1 (377 games / 15 matches)
- Covato lost 10 of last 15 matches in straight sets
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Covato's poor first-set performance suggests a relatively quick opening set, supporting the under.
- Covato lost first set in 13 of last 15 matches
- Covato average games won per set last 15: 3.2
- Almazan Valiente first set win conversion 90%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Covato's consistent second-set struggles make a short second set plausible.
- Covato lost second set in 12 of last 15 matches
- Covato average games won per set last 15: 3.2
- Almazan Valiente last 15 second serve points won 47.3%
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Almazan Valiente's strong first-set record and Covato's poor set-winning rate make the home player likely to take the opener.
- Almazan Valiente first set win conversion career 90%
- Covato last 15 sets won only 11.8%
- Almazan Valiente last 15 first serve points won 70.9%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonIzan Almazan ValienteEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Covato's inability to win sets makes a straight-set victory for Almazan Valiente the most likely exact score.
- Covato lost 10 of last 15 matches in straight sets
- Almazan Valiente won 6 of last 15 matches in straight sets
- Covato last 15 sets won only 11.8%
BetBugs · Set BettingwonIzan Almazan Valiente 2-0Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The high frequency of straight-set outcomes in Covato's recent matches supports a two-set match.
- Covato lost 10 of last 15 matches in straight sets
- Almazan Valiente won 6 of last 15 matches in straight sets
- Covato last 15 sets won only 11.8%
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Given Covato's poor set competitiveness, a tiebreak is less likely than a routine straight-set result.
- Covato lost 10 of last 15 matches in straight sets
- Almazan Valiente last 15 tiebreak win percentage 62%
- Covato career tiebreak win percentage 45%
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault averages exceed 5.5, making the over a reasonable expectation.
- Almazan Valiente last 15 double faults per match 4.1
- Covato last 15 double faults per match 2.3
- Combined average double faults per match 6.4
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average around 4 aces per match, making over 7.5 total aces slightly more likely than under.
- Almazan Valiente last 15 aces per match 4.2
- Covato last 15 aces per match 3.9
- Combined average aces per match 8.1
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance52%

Izan Almazan Valiente

9W 6L

1-6 6-4 6-2#434Santiago Rodriguez Taverna

6-2 3-6 6-1#578Saba Purtseladze

3-6 6-4 6-4#332Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

7-5 7-5—Rodrigo Fernandes

7-6(4) 3-6 6-2—Diogo Morais

7-5 3-6 6-3#709Tristan Mccormick

6-3 7-6(4)#644Maxwell Mckennon

6-4 6-4#395Alejo Sanchez Quilez

6-7(3) 6-4 6-3#786Benjamin Pietri

6-3 7-5#485Sergio Callejon Hernando

6-0 4-6 7-5#568Daniel De Jonge

6-3 7-5#709Tristan Mccormick

7-6(5) 2-6 6-2#331Akira Santillan

7-5 6-3#506Dominik Palan

7-6(4) 6-2#287Alastair Gray

Matteo Covato

0W 15L

6-2 6-2#662Leo Raquillet

7-5 3-6 6-3#563Fausto Tabacco

6-4 6-4#547Luca Wiedenmann

6-3 6-4#444Denis Yevseyev

6-7(4) 6-1 6-4—Adrien Berrut

6-3 6-4#1138Joshua Peck

6-3 6-3—Oliver Sanders

6-1 6-3#898Jesse Delaney

6-1 6-4#1731Justin Schlageter

6-4 3-6 6-1—Noah Karma

6-4 6-3#186Jan Kumstat

6-2 6-2—Richard Antoni

1-6 7-6(1) 6-4#1466Dylan Salton

6-3 6-0—Stefan Storch

6-1 6-1#350Ivan Marrero Curbelo

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

IVIzan Almazan ValienteValiente

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Matteo CovatoCovatoMC

Izan Almazan Valiente carries the stronger recent form — Matteo Covato's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In60.0%+8.4pp68.4%

1st Serve Won70.9%+11.5pp59.4%

2nd Serve Won47.3%+3.0pp44.3%

Aces / Match4.2+0.33.9

Double Faults / Match4.11.8 fewer2.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won40.8%+8.8pp32.0%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted47.4%+21.2pp26.2%

Break Pts Saved61.9%+8.9pp53.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.1%+7.5pp43.6%

Serve · 3–2

60.0%1st Serve In+8.4pp68.4%

70.9%1st Serve Won+11.5pp59.4%

47.3%2nd Serve Won+3.0pp44.3%

4.2Aces / Match+0.33.9

4.1Double Faults / Match1.8 fewer2.3

Return · 1–0

40.8%Return Pts Won+8.8pp32.0%

Pressure · 2–0

47.4%Break Pts Converted+21.2pp26.2%

61.9%Break Pts Saved+8.9pp53.0%

Points · 1–0

51.1%Total Pts Won+7.5pp43.6%