United StatesTiburon - USAFinished

Predictions graded

Bryce Nakashima #872United States2Andre Ilagan #243United States1

Sets 7-5 · 6-7 · 7-6Tue 15 Sept 2026, 19:50 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions7–188%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAndre Ilagan · 629 places

Bryce Nakashima

United States

Nakashima, 22, is the right-hander in this matchup; hard is listed as his preferred surface. His career-best singles ranking is No. 865, reached on 24 August 2026.

Current ranking: #872
Peak ranking: #865 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Andre Ilagan

United States

The American is 25 and left-handed. ITF listed him at No. 248 on 20 July 2026; structured match data lists No. 243. His recorded professional singles results are predominantly on hard courts.

Current ranking: #243
Peak ranking: #248 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 173 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Sep 2026, 15:17 · Europe/Bucharest

Nakashima's seven-match winning streak and strong first-set record give him a clear edge over Ilagan, who lost his last match heavily.

Best bets: Nakashima moneyline (2.20) and set 1 winner (2.10), both with solid value. Expect competitive sets but Nakashima to prevail, likely in straight sets.

Context

Nakashima, ranked 711, is a 20-year-old American who has been competing primarily on the Challenger and ITF circuits. Ilagan, ranked 181, is a 27-year-old American with more tour experience.
Nakashima enters this match with strong recent results, winning 11 of his last 15 matches and his last five in a row. Ilagan has also been competitive, winning 9 of 15, but he lost his most recent match in straight sets. This contrast in momentum could give Nakashima an edge, though Ilagan's higher ranking and experience may balance the matchup.
- Nakashima's last 15 record: 11-4 (73.3% win rate).
- Ilagan's last 15 record: 9-6 (60% win rate).
- Nakashima has won his last five matches, all on hard courts.
- Ilagan lost his most recent match 6-1 6-3 to Hugo Gaston.
Nakashima's recent stats show a first-serve points won rate of 75.7% and a return points won rate of 41.7%. Ilagan's corresponding numbers are 65.2% and 37.8%.
Nakashima has been more effective on both serve and return in recent matches. His higher first-serve points won percentage suggests he can hold serve more easily, while his better return numbers indicate he can pressure Ilagan's serve. This statistical edge could be decisive in a close match.
- Nakashima first-serve points won: 75.7% (355/469).
- Ilagan first-serve points won: 65.2% (474/727).
- Nakashima return points won: 41.7% (385/923).
- Ilagan return points won: 37.8% (404/1070).
The two players met once before, in the third round of a Challenger event in 2022. Nakashima won 6-3 6-4.
Nakashima has a head-to-head advantage from their only previous encounter. That match was on hard court, the same surface as this one. While it was four years ago and both players have developed since, it may give Nakashima some confidence.
- H2H: Nakashima leads 1-0.
- 2022 match score: 6-3 6-4 on hard court.
Andre Ilagan, 24, is the left-hander in this matchup and reached a career-high ATP No. 181.
He played his first major qualifying campaign at the US Open in late August and said on 10 September that his training with his coach was beginning to translate in competition. That recent step up in event level is useful background, but it does not change what to expect in this Tiburon match.
- On 10 September, Ilagan described the US Open qualifying campaign as his first major tournament and said the training with his coach was beginning to translate in competition.
- Stored recent sample: 3 wins from 5 tracked matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Sep 2026, 15:16 · Europe/BucharestHawaii News Now — Ilagan reflects on US Open bidwww.hawaiinewsnow.com · 11 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Nakashima's superior recent form and current winning streak give him a clear edge over Ilagan, whose last match was a heavy loss.
- Bryce Nakashima is 11-4 in his last 15 matches (73.3%) with a 22-8 set record.
- Andre Ilagan is 9-6 in his last 15 matches (60%) with a 20-16 set record.
- Nakashima has won 7 straight matches, including a 6-2 6-4 win over Quinn Vandecasteele (rank 468) on 14 Sep.
- Ilagan lost his most recent match 6-1 6-3 to Hugo Gaston (rank 101) on 26 Aug.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBryce NakashimaEstimated chance62%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ilagan's matches tend to be longer and more competitive, increasing the likelihood of a higher total games count.
- Nakashima's last 15 matches averaged 19.3 games per match.
- Ilagan's last 15 matches averaged 24.1 games per match.
- Ilagan has played 7 three-set matches in his last 15, while Nakashima has played 3.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ilagan's first sets tend to be competitive, pushing the total games over 9.5.
- Nakashima's average first set games in last 15: 9.3.
- Ilagan's average first set games in last 15: 10.1.
- Ilagan has played 5 first-set tiebreaks in his last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second set is likely to be competitive, with a slight lean toward over 9.5 games.
- Nakashima's average second set games in last 15: 9.1.
- Ilagan's average second set games in last 15: 9.8.
- Both players have similar second-set game averages.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Nakashima's strong first-set record and higher conversion rate make him the likely set 1 winner.
- Nakashima has won the first set in 12 of his last 15 matches.
- Ilagan has won the first set in 8 of his last 15 matches.
- Nakashima's first-set win conversion rate is 93% career, while Ilagan's is 87%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonBryce NakashimaEstimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have relatively low double fault rates, supporting an under on total double faults.
- Nakashima averages 1.8 double faults per match in his last 15.
- Ilagan averages 2.1 double faults per match in his last 15.
- Combined average is 3.9 double faults per match.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players contribute a steady number of aces, making over 7.5 total aces a reasonable expectation.
- Nakashima averages 4.5 aces per match in his last 15.
- Ilagan averages 3.7 aces per match in his last 15.
- Combined average is 8.2 aces per match.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players have a moderate frequency of tiebreaks, making a tiebreak in this match a coin-flip proposition.
- Ilagan has played 6 tiebreaks in his last 15 matches.
- Nakashima has played 4 tiebreaks in his last 15 matches.
- Ilagan's tiebreak win percentage is 47% career, Nakashima's is 44%.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-3 6-4Bryce Nakashima#711vAndre Ilagan#181Jul 12, 2022

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Bryce Nakashima

11W 4L

6-2 6-4#468Quinn Vandecasteele 7-5 6-0#582Kaylan Bigun

6-2 7-6(6)—Jakub Vrba

6-2 7-6(5)—Preston Stearns

6-3 6-4#782Jack Anthrop

6-3 6-2—Tyler Bowers

6-3 7-5—Rocco Piatti

4-6 7-6(5) 6-4—Alexander Okonkwo

5-2 ret.#864Patrick Maloney

6-1 6-3#339Mees Rottgering

6-3 6-4#421Karim Bennani

6-3 7-5#850Marko Miladinovic

6-4 6-2#871Theodore Dean

6-2 7-6(2)#629Aidan Kim

6-3 6-4#762Noah Zamora

Andre Ilagan

9W 6L

6-1 6-3#101Hugo Gaston

6-4 3-6 6-4#214Tristan Boyer

6-2 7-6(6)#138Lloyd Harris

6-2 6-4#189Jack Pinnington Jones

6-4 2-6 6-1#165Tristan Schoolkate

2-6 6-4 6-3#313Andres Martin

6-2 1-6 7-6(6)#194Edas Butvilas

6-4 6-4#451Spencer Johnson

7-6(5) 6-4#484Sebastian Gorzny

3-6 7-6(4) 6-4#157Soon-Woo Kwon

6-3 6-4#203Andres Andrade

6-3 7-6(2)#84Marcos Giron

7-5 7-6(2)#187Remy Bertola

7-6(3) 7-5#406Yosuke Watanuki

4-6 6-3 7-6(5)#202Colton Smith

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

BNBryce NakashimaNakashima

Last 15

8–1

9 core stats · 0 even

Andre IlaganIlaganAI

Bryce Nakashima carries the stronger recent form — Andre Ilagan's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In55.8%+8.3pp64.1%

1st Serve Won75.7%+10.5pp65.2%

2nd Serve Won57.3%+3.4pp53.9%

Aces / Match4.5+0.83.7

Double Faults / Match1.80.3 fewer2.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won41.7%+3.9pp37.8%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted40.9%+0.9pp40.0%

Break Pts Saved67.2%+8.3pp58.9%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won54.0%+4.2pp49.8%

Serve · 4–1

55.8%1st Serve In+8.3pp64.1%

75.7%1st Serve Won+10.5pp65.2%

57.3%2nd Serve Won+3.4pp53.9%

4.5Aces / Match+0.83.7

1.8Double Faults / Match0.3 fewer2.1

Return · 1–0

41.7%Return Pts Won+3.9pp37.8%

Pressure · 2–0

40.9%Break Pts Converted+0.9pp40.0%

67.2%Break Pts Saved+8.3pp58.9%

Points · 1–0

54.0%Total Pts Won+4.2pp49.8%