Phan Thiet - VietnamFinished

Predictions graded

Arthur Weber #405France2Koki Matsuda #483Japan0

Sets 6-1 · 6-2Tue 15 Sept 2026, 03:10 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions4–450%

Edges3–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageArthur Weber · 78 places

Arthur Weber

France

Weber, 34, is the left-hander in this matchup. His highest ATP singles ranking was No. 303 in October 2023, and hard is listed as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #405
Peak ranking: #303 · 2023
Current age: 34
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 185 cm

Koki Matsuda

Japan

Born 31 October 2000. His 2026 activity has been concentrated on hard courts, and he reached a career-best ranking of No. 451 in August 2026.

Current ranking: #483
Peak ranking: #451 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Sep 2026, 03:20 · Europe/Bucharest

Arthur Weber is a strong favorite over Koki Matsuda, with a perfect H2H record and superior recent hard-court form.

Weber's return game and first-set dominance give him a clear edge, while Matsuda's serve may extend the match. Best bets: Weber to win and Weber 2-0, with value also on over 21.5 total games.

Context

Weber, 405th, is a left-hander who has played almost exclusively on hard courts this season. Matsuda, 483rd, is a right-hander with a similar hard-court focus.
Weber's 73.3% win rate in the last 15 matches is better than Matsuda's 60%, but his recent opponents have been ranked lower on average. Matsuda has faced several players inside the top 400, including a win over Jake Delaney (365) and a loss to Philip Sekulic (353). This suggests Weber's form may be inflated by weaker competition, making the matchup closer than the win-loss records imply.
- Weber's last 15 record: 11-4 (73.3%) on hard courts.
- Matsuda's last 15 record: 9-6 (60%) on hard courts.
- Weber's recent wins include opponents ranked 396, 560, 516, and unranked players.
- Matsuda's recent wins include Jake Delaney (365) and Daniil Ostapenkov (556), and losses to Philip Sekulic (353) and Hayato Matsuoka (255).
Matsuda's serve has been his main strength in recent matches, while Weber relies more on consistency and returning.
Matsuda's high ace count and first-serve win rate give him free points, but his low return points won (36.6%) means he struggles to break serve. Weber's return points won is 46.5%, significantly better, so Weber should have more chances on Matsuda's serve. However, Matsuda's break point save rate of 72.4% could help him escape trouble.
- Matsuda's aces per match: 7.3 vs Weber's 1.8.
- Matsuda's first serve points won: 72.4% vs Weber's 73.1%.
- Matsuda's return points won: 36.6% vs Weber's 46.5%.
- Matsuda's break points saved: 72.4% vs Weber's 55.6%.
The two players have met twice before, both on hard courts, with Weber winning both matches.
Weber won 7-6(3) 6-4 in 2024 and 6-2 6-2 in 2023. In those matches, Weber won 83% of first-serve points and 59% of second-serve points, while Matsuda won only 25% of return points. This historical edge could give Weber confidence, but the sample is small and Matsuda has improved his serve since then.
- 2024: Weber won 7-6(3) 6-4.
- 2023: Weber won 6-2 6-2.
- Weber's first-serve win rate in H2H: 83% vs Matsuda's 69%.
- Matsuda's return points won in H2H: 25%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Weber's superior recent hard-court form, return game, and perfect H2H record give him a clear edge.
- Arthur Weber has won both prior H2H meetings on hard courts (2024: 7-6(3) 6-4, 2023: 6-2 6-2).
- Weber's last 15 hard-court record is 11-4 (73.3%), while Matsuda is 9-6 (60%) in the same window.
- Weber's return points won is 46.5% vs Matsuda's 36.6% over last 15 matches.
- Weber's first-set win conversion is 92% career, Matsuda's is 84%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonArthur WeberEstimated chance72%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Matsuda's matches tend to be longer and more competitive, pushing the total games over 21.5.
- Weber's last 15 matches average 18.8 games per match (282 games / 15).
- Matsuda's last 15 matches average 25.3 games per match (380 games / 15).
- Matsuda has played 7 three-set matches in his last 15, Weber only 2.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive, with both players capable of holding serve.
- Weber's last 15 first sets average 9.4 games.
- Matsuda's last 15 first sets average 10.1 games.
- Both players have played multiple tiebreaks in recent first sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Weber's superior games won percentage and H2H dominance support a -3.5 handicap.
- Weber's average games won per match is 11.5 (172/15), Matsuda's is 12.7 (191/15).
- Weber's games won percentage is 61% vs Matsuda's 50.3%.
- H2H matches: Weber won by 3 and 8 games.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonArthur Weber -3.5Estimated chance58%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Weber's strong first-set record and Matsuda's tendency to start slowly support a Weber first-set win.
- Weber has won the first set in 12 of his last 15 matches (80%).
- Matsuda has lost the first set in 6 of his last 15 matches (40%).
- Weber's first-set win conversion is 92% career.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonArthur WeberEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Weber's straight-set tendency and H2H history make a 2-0 win plausible.
- Weber has won 9 of his last 15 matches in straight sets (60%).
- Matsuda has lost 6 of his last 15 matches in straight sets (40%).
- Both H2H wins for Weber were in straight sets.
BetBugs · Set BettingwonArthur Weber 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Matsuda's high ace count should push the total aces over 8.5 even if Weber contributes few.
- Matsuda averages 7.3 aces per match in his last 15 matches.
- Weber averages 1.8 aces per match in his last 15 matches.
- Combined average is 9.1 aces per match.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have relatively low double fault rates, making under 3.5 likely.
- Weber averages 1.1 double faults per match in his last 15.
- Matsuda averages 2.1 double faults per match in his last 15.
- Combined average is 3.2 double faults per match.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Matsuda's frequent tiebreaks and competitive sets make a tiebreak likely.
- Matsuda has played a tiebreak in 8 of his last 15 matches (53%).
- Weber has played a tiebreak in 5 of his last 15 matches (33%).
- H2H first match included a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

2-0 (2 meetings)

W7-6(3) 6-4Arthur Weber#405vKoki Matsuda#483Sep 5, 2024

W6-2 6-2Arthur Weber#405vKoki Matsuda#483Aug 9, 2023

2 total meetings

Previous match context available

Arthur Weber

11W 4L

6-4 7-6(5)#275Ilia Simakin 6-4 6-4#396Yuta Shimizu 7-6(5) 6-2#560Filip Peliwo

6-0 6-0#516Tai Sach

6-0 6-0—Tran Quoc Cuong

7-5 7-6(5)#460Moerani Bouzige

6-1 6-2#1330Thantub Suksumrarn

6-2 7-5#890Thanapet Chanta

6-3 6-0#1229Jordan Hasson

6-4 6-3—Veerawit Kamput

7-5 6-4#880Kristjan Tamm

6-4 6-2#628Tsung-Hao Huang

6-3 6-4#303Florent Bax

2-6 6-1 6-3#563Fausto Tabacco

6-3 6-2—Louis Larue

Koki Matsuda

9W 6L

6-2 4-6 7-5#353Philip Sekulic

7-5 7-6(4)#744Martin Borisiouk

6-3 6-2#551Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

7-6(4) 7-6(6)#365Jake Delaney

2-6 6-3 7-6(4)—Fanming Meng

6-7(5) 7-6(3) 6-4#897Kaito Uesugi

6-3 6-4—Chen Hui Ho

6-3 6-4#255Hayato Matsuoka

6-4 1-6 6-2#898Gijs Brouwer

6-4 4-6 6-4#591Paul Inchauspe

3-6 6-3 7-6(4)—Kerem Yilmaz

7-6(6) 6-3#556Daniil Ostapenkov

6-2 7-5#807Cem Ilkel

4-6 7-6(5) 6-3#674Gabriel Debru

6-3 6-3#501Colin Sinclair

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AWArthur WeberWeber

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Koki MatsudaMatsudaKM

Arthur Weber carries the stronger recent form — Koki Matsuda's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In61.2%+3.8pp65.0%

1st Serve Won73.1%—72.4%

2nd Serve Won51.5%+3.8pp47.7%

Aces / Match1.8+5.57.3

Double Faults / Match1.11.0 fewer2.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won46.5%+9.9pp36.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted49.2%+16.2pp33.0%

Break Pts Saved55.6%+16.8pp72.4%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won55.3%+5.1pp50.2%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

61.2%1st Serve In+3.8pp65.0%

73.1%1st Serve Won—72.4%

51.5%2nd Serve Won+3.8pp47.7%

1.8Aces / Match+5.57.3

1.1Double Faults / Match1.0 fewer2.1

Return · 1–0

46.5%Return Pts Won+9.9pp36.6%

Pressure · 1–1

49.2%Break Pts Converted+16.2pp33.0%

55.6%Break Pts Saved+16.8pp72.4%

Points · 1–0

55.3%Total Pts Won+5.1pp50.2%

Arthur Weber

Koki Matsuda

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Arthur Weber

Arthur Weber

Arthur Weber 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets2 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Arthur Weber

Koki Matsuda

Stat Battle