Phan Thiet - VietnamFinished

Predictions graded

Timofei Derepasko #680Russia2Taisei Ichikawa #781Japan0

Sets 7-5 · 6-3Mon 14 Sept 2026, 05:10 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions6–0100%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageTimofei Derepasko · 101 places

Timofei Derepasko

Russia

Derepasko, 19, is the right-hander in this matchup. His highest ranking, No. 634, came in June 2026.

Current ranking: #680
Peak ranking: #634 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Taisei Ichikawa

Japan

Left-handed player with a documented career-high ranking of No. 287 in November 2025. The requested sources did not establish a reliable preferred-surface claim or a current injury/decline narrative.

Current ranking: #781
Peak ranking: #287 · 2025
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 15:32 · Europe/Bucharest

Derepasko has a clear recent hard-court edge in serve and break-point resilience, making him the slight favorite at 1.80 with a 2.4-point value edge.

Ichikawa's matches tend to be longer, so over 21.5 games is a low-confidence lean, but a tiebreak is unlikely.

Context

Derepasko, ranked 680, has a 66.7% win rate on hard courts in his last 6 matches, with a 55.2% games won percentage.
Ichikawa's hard-court record over the same span is 53.3% with a 50% games won percentage, and he has suffered heavy losses to lower-ranked opponents. Derepasko's recent hard-court results suggest he may have a slight edge in this qualifying round.
- Derepasko's last 6 hard-court matches: 4 wins, 2 losses (66.7% win rate).
- Ichikawa's last 15 hard-court matches: 8 wins, 7 losses (53.3% win rate).
- Derepasko won 55.2% of games on hard courts vs Ichikawa's 50%.
Ichikawa, a left-hander ranked 768, has been effective on return recently, winning 43.7% of return points.
Derepasko's return points won is 41.5% in his last 14 matches, and his first serve percentage is only 51.7%. If Ichikawa can attack Derepasko's second serve, he may create break opportunities.
- Ichikawa's return points won: 43.7% (368/842) in 13 matches.
- Derepasko's return points won: 41.5% (321/773) in 14 matches.
- Derepasko's first serve in: 51.7% (406/786) in 14 matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Derepasko has a clear recent hard-court edge in serve and break-point resilience, which is the strongest structural signal in this matchup.
- Derepasko's last 15 hard-court record: 4-2 (66.7%), while Ichikawa is 8-7 (53.3%) on hard in the same window.
- Derepasko's last 15 hard-court games won: 55.2% vs Ichikawa's 50.0%.
- Derepasko's last 15 hard-court break points saved: 67.5% vs Ichikawa's 57.5%.
- Derepasko's last 15 hard-court first serve points won: 72.6% vs Ichikawa's 64.8%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTimofei DerepaskoEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ichikawa's matches tend to be longer and both players have comparable recent form, making a total over 21.5 games plausible.
- Derepasko's last 15 hard-court matches averaged 19.3 games per match.
- Ichikawa's last 15 hard-court matches averaged 23.2 games per match.
- Both players have similar overall games won percentages (52.2% vs 50.0%), suggesting competitive sets.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players have shown competitive first sets recently, and Ichikawa's tiebreak tendency supports a higher game count.
- Derepasko's last 15 hard-court first sets averaged 9.3 games.
- Ichikawa's last 15 hard-court first sets averaged 10.1 games.
- Ichikawa has played three tiebreaks in his last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Derepasko's stronger recent hard-court serving and Ichikawa's slow starts make Derepasko the more likely first-set winner.
- Derepasko's last 15 hard-court first set win conversion: 86% career, and he won 4 of his last 6 hard matches.
- Ichikawa lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches.
- Derepasko's last 15 hard-court first serve points won: 72.6%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonTimofei DerepaskoEstimated chance56%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players rarely play tiebreaks recently, making a tiebreak-free match more likely.
- Derepasko has played 1 tiebreak in his last 15 matches.
- Ichikawa has played 3 tiebreaks in his last 15 matches.
- Combined tiebreak frequency is low (4 in 30 matches).
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ichikawa's low double-fault rate and Derepasko's moderate rate make under 5.5 slightly more likely than over.
- Derepasko averages 3.8 double faults per match on hard in his last 15.
- Ichikawa averages 2.1 double faults per match on hard in his last 15.
- Combined average is 5.9, but Derepasko's number is inflated by a few high-DF matches.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance55%

Previous match context available

Timofei Derepasko

8W 7L

6-3 6-3—Stefan Storch

6-3 6-2#354Cruz Hewitt

6-3 4-6 6-4#820Sam Ryan Ziegann

6-3 6-4#830Taiyo Yamanaka

6-2 6-0—Minhthien Nguyen

6-4 6-3—Dimitar Kisimov

6-3 6-0#889Alessandro Bellifemine

6-2 6-1—Egor Shcherbakov

6-0 6-2#279Sean Cuenin

7-6(7) 5-1 ret.—Loan Lestir

6-3 6-2#600Pierre Delage

6-4 6-2—Vardan Manukyan

6-3 6-1—Mattias Pisanu

3-6 6-3 6-2—Marko Milosavljevic (SRB)

7-6(4) 6-1#496Dusan Obradovic

Taisei Ichikawa

8W 7L

6-2 6-2—Nikita Ianin

6-7(8) 7-5 6-2—Benjamin O'Connell

6-4 6-1—Noritaka Koizumi

6-0 6-1#764Ryuki Matsuda

6-1 7-5—Jerry Roddick

4-6 7-6(3) 10-5—Hiromasa Koyama

7-6(9) 2-6 10-8—Tin Chen

6-2 6-0#370Tung-Lin Wu

2-6 6-3 10-4#874Yeongseok Jeong

6-1 6-1—Kai-An Wu

6-2 6-3#288Petr Bar Biryukov

6-3 3-6 6-1#604Karan Singh

7-5 6-4#567Hyeon Chung

3-6 6-2 6-2#764Ryuki Matsuda

2-6 6-3 6-2#764Ryuki Matsuda

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TDTimofei DerepaskoDerepasko

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Taisei IchikawaIchikawaTI

Taisei Ichikawa carries the stronger recent form — Timofei Derepasko's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In14/15 · 13/1551.7%+8.6pp60.3%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 13/1571.9%+7.1pp64.8%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 13/1549.2%+1.8pp47.4%

Aces / Match14/15 · 13/153.9+0.33.6

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 13/152.40.3 fewer2.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 13/1541.5%+2.2pp43.7%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 13/1545.5%+1.4pp46.9%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 13/1556.3%+1.2pp57.5%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won14/15 · 13/1551.3%—50.7%

Serve · 3–2

51.7%1st Serve In14/15 · 13/15+8.6pp60.3%

71.9%1st Serve Won14/15 · 13/15+7.1pp64.8%

49.2%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 13/15+1.8pp47.4%

3.9Aces / Match14/15 · 13/15+0.33.6

2.4Double Faults / Match14/15 · 13/150.3 fewer2.1

Return · 0–1

41.5%Return Pts Won14/15 · 13/15+2.2pp43.7%

Pressure · 0–2

45.5%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 13/15+1.4pp46.9%

56.3%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 13/15+1.2pp57.5%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.3%Total Pts Won14/15 · 13/15—50.7%