ItalyBiella - ItalyFinished

Predictions graded

Izan Almazan Valiente #491Spain2Gianmarco Ferrari #456Italy0

Sets 6-1 · 6-1Mon 14 Sept 2026, 08:10 Predictions gradedQ3Clay

Predictions2–529%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageGianmarco Ferrari · 35 places

Izan Almazan Valiente

Spain

Almazan Valiente, 20, is the right-hander in this matchup. He reached a best ranking of No. 487 in August 2026 and is currently No. 491.

Current ranking: #491
Peak ranking: #487 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 190 cm

Gianmarco Ferrari

Italy

Italian left-hander, born 4 October 2000. His verified career-high singles ranking is No. 387, reached in May 2023; no reliable current injury or comeback report was found in the specified search window.

Current ranking: #456
Peak ranking: #387 · 2023
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 15:40 · Europe/Bucharest

Almazan Valiente has a slight edge in recent form and serve, but Ferrari's clay experience keeps it close.

Best betting angles are over 21.5 total games and over 5.5 double faults, while the match winner odds for Almazan Valiente are too short.

Context

Ferrari, 25, is a left-hander from Italy who has built most of his career on clay, with 188 of his 211 career wins on the surface.
His recent clay results are mixed: he beat Andrey Chepelev and Francesco Ferrari but lost to Thiago Seyboth Wild and Andrea Colombo. His first-serve points won (64.9%) and return points won (41.2%) are not strong enough to give him a clear edge against a similar-level opponent.
- Ferrari's last 15 matches on clay: 8 wins, 7 losses.
- He lost to Thiago Seyboth Wild (rank 198) and Andrea Colombo (rank 894) in straight sets.
- His first-serve points won is 64.9% and return points won is 41.2% over the last 15 matches.
Almazan Valiente, 22, is a Spanish player ranked 491 who has played most of his recent matches on hard courts.
On clay in the last 15 matches, he is 2-1 with wins over Matteo Covato and Saba Purtseladze, but the sample is only three matches. His clay numbers show a 66.7% break point save rate and 54.2% break point conversion, which are solid but not enough to override the small sample.
- Almazan Valiente's last 3 clay matches: 2 wins, 1 loss.
- He beat Matteo Covato (rank 753) and Saba Purtseladze (rank 578), but lost to Santiago Rodriguez Taverna (rank 434).
- His clay break point save rate is 66.7% and conversion rate is 54.2% in that sample.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Izan Almazan Valiente

1.48fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 67.6%

0.0ppshort

Almazan Valiente has a slight edge in recent overall form and clay-specific win rate, but the odds overstate his advantage.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.48
The read
Almazan Valiente has a slight edge in recent overall form and clay-specific win rate, though Ferrari's extensive clay history keeps the match competitive.
- Last 15 overall record: 9-6 (60%) vs Ferrari 8-7 (53.3%)
- Last 15 clay record: 2-1 (66.7%) vs Ferrari 8-7 (53.3%)
- Last 15 total points won: 51.2% vs Ferrari 50.8%
- Career clay wins: 24 vs Ferrari 188 (but Ferrari has much more clay experience)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonIzan Almazan ValienteEstimated chance55%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have competitive recent matches with several three-setters, suggesting a total games line above 21.5 is likely.
- Almazan Valiente last 15 average games per match: 24.8 (372/15)
- Ferrari last 15 average games per match: 20.4 (306/15)
- Combined average games per match: 45.2, but Bo3 typical total around 22
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets have been close, with both players averaging near 10 games, supporting an over on 9.5.
- Almazan Valiente last 15 first set average games: 9.8
- Ferrari last 15 first set average games: 9.3
- Both players have had multiple first sets with 10+ games
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have also been competitive, with both players averaging near 10 games, supporting an over on 9.5.
- Almazan Valiente last 15 second set average games: 9.6
- Ferrari last 15 second set average games: 9.1
- Both players have had multiple second sets with 10+ games
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Almazan Valiente's stronger first serve and higher first set conversion rate give him a slight edge in the opening set.
- Almazan Valiente first set win conversion career: 90%
- Ferrari first set win conversion career: 85%
- Last 15 first serve points won: Almazan 70.6% vs Ferrari 64.9%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonIzan Almazan ValienteEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Almazan Valiente's high double fault rate pushes the combined average above the line, making over 5.5 likely.
- Almazan Valiente last 15 double faults per match: 4.3
- Ferrari last 15 double faults per match: 1.9
- Combined average double faults per match: 6.2
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages are right at the line, making over 7.5 a coin flip but slightly favored given both players' serving numbers.
- Almazan Valiente last 15 aces per match: 4.1
- Ferrari last 15 aces per match: 3.5
- Combined average aces per match: 7.6
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance50%

Previous match context available

Izan Almazan Valiente

9W 6L

6-3 6-1#753Matteo Covato

1-6 6-4 6-2#434Santiago Rodriguez Taverna

6-2 3-6 6-1#578Saba Purtseladze

3-6 6-4 6-4#332Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

7-5 7-5—Rodrigo Fernandes

7-6(4) 3-6 6-2—Diogo Morais

7-5 3-6 6-3#709Tristan Mccormick

6-3 7-6(4)#644Maxwell Mckennon

6-4 6-4#395Alejo Sanchez Quilez

6-7(3) 6-4 6-3#786Benjamin Pietri

6-3 7-5#485Sergio Callejon Hernando

6-0 4-6 7-5#568Daniel De Jonge

6-3 7-5#709Tristan Mccormick

7-6(5) 2-6 6-2#331Akira Santillan

7-5 6-3#506Dominik Palan

Gianmarco Ferrari

8W 7L

6-1 6-1—Cesare Carpano

6-3 6-4#198Thiago Seyboth Wild

6-3 6-3#383Andrey Chepelev

7-6(3) 7-6(2)#846Francesco Ferrari

7-5 7-6(5)#894Andrea Colombo

6-2 6-0—Samuele Seghetti

6-2 6-7(5) 6-0#576Nikita Mashtakov

6-4 6-2—Edoardo Betti

6-2 6-0#563Fausto Tabacco

6-7(2) 6-4 6-3#654Giorgio Tabacco

6-1 6-2—Alessandro Spadola

7-6(3) 6-0—Leonardo Borrelli

6-4 6-4#209Roberto Carballes Baena

7-6(6) 6-0#485Sergio Callejon Hernando

6-4 3-6 6-1#301Petr Nesterov

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

IVIzan Almazan ValienteValiente

Last 15

3–3

9 core stats · 3 even

Gianmarco FerrariFerrariGF

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In60.0%+4.2pp64.2%

1st Serve Won70.6%+5.7pp64.9%

2nd Serve Won47.7%+3.7pp51.4%

Aces / Match4.1+0.63.5

Double Faults / Match4.32.4 fewer1.9

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won40.8%—41.2%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted50.0%+6.6pp43.4%

Break Pts Saved63.1%—62.8%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won51.2%—50.8%

Serve · 2–3

60.0%1st Serve In+4.2pp64.2%

70.6%1st Serve Won+5.7pp64.9%

47.7%2nd Serve Won+3.7pp51.4%

4.1Aces / Match+0.63.5

4.3Double Faults / Match2.4 fewer1.9

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

40.8%Return Pts Won—41.2%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

50.0%Break Pts Converted+6.6pp43.4%

63.1%Break Pts Saved—62.8%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.2%Total Pts Won—50.8%