United StatesTiburon - USAFinished

Predictions graded

Ozan Baris #486United States2Lorenzo Claverie #877Venezuela1

Sets 6-4 · 4-6 · 6-2Sun 13 Sept 2026, 19:50 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions3–443%

Edges2–167%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageOzan Baris · 391 places

Ozan Baris

United States

The 22-year-old American is right-handed and 185 cm tall. His supplied current ranking of No. 486 matches the career high listed by Sofascore.

Current ranking: #486
Peak ranking: #486
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Lorenzo Claverie

Venezuela

Structured player data lists Claverie at No. 877, right-handed with a two-handed backhand, and 196 cm.

Current ranking: #877
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 15:15 · Europe/Bucharest

Ozan Baris is a strong favorite over Lorenzo Claverie, with superior hard-court form and ranking.

Baris to win 2-0 at 1.75 offers slight value, while the match winner at 1.29 is fairly priced. Avoid the set 1 winner market as it is overpriced.

Context

Baris, 427th, is a right-hander who has played almost exclusively on hard courts in recent months and has a 25-7 hard-court record in 2026.
Baris has won 12 of his last 15 matches, all on hard courts, with a 57.4% games-won rate and a 73.6% first-serve points-won rate. Claverie has lost six of his last eight hard-court matches and won only 46.7% of games on the surface. This form gap gives Baris a clear edge, though Claverie's strong clay results show he can compete when conditions suit him.
- Baris last 15 overall record: 12-3 (80%) on hard courts.
- Claverie last 15 hard-court record: 2-6 (25%).
- Baris first-serve points won on hard: 73.6%; Claverie: 73.9% (similar).
- Baris return points won on hard: 43.0%; Claverie: 31.1%.
Claverie, 884th, is a tall right-hander with a powerful serve, averaging over 10 aces per match in his last 15.
Claverie's serve can keep him in games, but his return points won (31.4%) is well below Baris's 43.0%. Baris also saves 66.3% of break points, so Claverie may struggle to create chances. If Claverie's first serve dips, his second serve is vulnerable (53.3% points won) and he averages 4.4 double faults per match.
- Claverie aces per match: 10.3; Baris: 4.1.
- Claverie return points won: 31.4%; Baris: 43.0%.
- Claverie double faults per match: 4.4; Baris: 1.9.
- Claverie second-serve points won: 53.3%; Baris: 52.7%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Ozan Baris

1.33fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Baris's superior return game and strong first-set conversion rate give him an edge in the opening set.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Baris has a strong recent hard-court form and surface edge, while Claverie has struggled on hard courts in his last 15 matches.
- Baris last 15 on hard: 12-3 record, 57.4% games won, 53.7% total points won
- Claverie last 15 on hard: 2-6 record, 46.7% games won, 47.8% total points won
- Baris ranking 427 vs Claverie 884; Baris 2026 hard record 25-7, Claverie 2-5
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonOzan BarisEstimated chance78%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Baris's dominant recent form suggests a potential straight-set win with fewer total games, supported by his lower average games per match.
- Baris last 15 average games per match: 19.9 (298 games / 15 matches)
- Claverie last 15 average games per match: 26.9 (404 games / 15 matches)
- Baris has won 6 of last 15 matches in straight sets with 12 or fewer games lost
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Baris's superior recent form and Claverie's hard-court struggles support a handicap cover of -3.5 games.
- Baris last 15 average games won margin: +3.2 games per match
- Claverie last 15 hard average games lost margin: -2.6 games per match
- Baris has won 6 of last 15 matches by 5+ games
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostOzan Baris -3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Claverie's competitive first sets and Baris's occasional slow starts suggest a higher game count in set 1.
- Baris last 15 first set average games: 9.3
- Claverie last 15 first set average games: 10.1
- Claverie's first sets often go to 10+ games
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Baris's superior return game and strong first-set conversion rate give him an edge in the opening set.
- Baris first-set win conversion career 88%
- Baris last 15 first serve points won 73.6%, return points won 43%
- Claverie last 15 hard first serve points won 73.9%, return points won 31.1%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonOzan BarisEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Baris's strong set-winning percentage and Claverie's poor hard-court set record make a straight-set win likely.
- Baris last 15 sets won 72.7%
- Claverie last 15 hard sets won 40%
- Baris has won 8 of last 15 matches in straight sets
BetBugs · Set BettinglostOzan Baris 2-0Estimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Claverie's high ace rate, especially on hard courts, pushes the combined total above the line.
- Baris last 15 aces per match: 4.1
- Claverie last 15 aces per match: 10.3
- Combined average aces per match: 14.4
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 12.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Claverie's high double fault rate contributes to a likely over on total double faults.
- Baris last 15 double faults per match: 1.9
- Claverie last 15 double faults per match: 4.4
- Combined average double faults per match: 6.3
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players have solid tiebreak records, and Claverie's recent matches often feature tiebreaks, making at least one tiebreak plausible.
- Baris career tiebreak win percentage 63%
- Claverie career tiebreak win percentage 58%
- Claverie has played 5 tiebreaks in last 15 matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance50%

Previous match context available

Ozan Baris

12W 3L

6-3 6-4—Nikita Filin

6-2 1-6 6-3#874Luca Pow

6-1 6-3—Mitchell Sheldon

6-0 6-2#195Edas Butvilas

6-4 7-5#197Liam Broady

6-4 6-2#759Vignesh Gogineni

2-6 6-3 6-4#299Johannus Monday

6-3 6-1#863Maxwell Exsted

5-7 7-6(5) 7-5#861Oliver Bonding

6-1 6-2—Nikita Filin

6-3 6-2#340Mees Rottgering

7-5 7-5#863Aleksa Ciric

6-3 6-4—Maximus Dussault

6-0 6-1—Teodor Davidov

7-6(4) 4-0 ret.—Marko Mesarovic

Lorenzo Claverie

7W 8L

6-4 6-1#686Arklon Huertas Del Pino

6-7(6) 6-2 7-6(2)#472Miguel Tobon

7-6(1) 6-3#182Tristan Boyer

4-6 6-4 7-6(6)#627Bruno Kuzuhara

7-5 7-5#261Matias Soto

7-6(5) 7-6(6)#306Facundo Mena

7-6(3) 7-6(5)#284Nick Hardt

7-6(3) 6-7(5) 6-1#649Samuel Heredia

6-4 3-6 6-3—Christopher Papa

6-3 7-6(3)#718Daniel Antonio Nunez

5-7 7-6(4) 6-1—Jack Satterfield

6-4 6-4#863Maxwell Exsted

6-3 7-6(4)—Liam Krall

6-7(7) 7-6(5) 6-1#473Christian Langmo

4-6 6-3 7-6(5)#451Spencer Johnson

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

OBOzan BarisBaris

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Lorenzo ClaverieClaverieLC

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In60.2%+1.4pp61.6%

1st Serve Won73.6%+2.0pp75.6%

2nd Serve Won52.7%—53.3%

Aces / Match4.1+6.210.3

Double Faults / Match1.92.5 fewer4.4

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won43.0%+11.6pp31.4%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted39.8%+6.5pp33.3%

Break Pts Saved66.3%+6.9pp73.2%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.7%+4.2pp49.5%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

60.2%1st Serve In+1.4pp61.6%

73.6%1st Serve Won+2.0pp75.6%

52.7%2nd Serve Won—53.3%

4.1Aces / Match+6.210.3

1.9Double Faults / Match2.5 fewer4.4

Return · 1–0

43.0%Return Pts Won+11.6pp31.4%

Pressure · 1–1

39.8%Break Pts Converted+6.5pp33.3%

66.3%Break Pts Saved+6.9pp73.2%

Points · 1–0

53.7%Total Pts Won+4.2pp49.5%

Ozan Baris

Lorenzo Claverie

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Ozan Baris

Ozan Baris 2-0

Ozan Baris

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Ozan Baris

Lorenzo Claverie

Stat Battle