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Predictions graded

Pavel Kotov #250Russia0Marat Sharipov (RUS) #442Russia2

Sets 3-6 · 5-7Sat 12 Sept 2026, 10:50 Predictions gradedSemi-FinalHard

Predictions5–363%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantagePavel Kotov · 192 places

Pavel Kotov

Russia

Reached a career-high ranking of No. 50 in June 2024. The available profile records identify him as a right-hander with a two-handed backhand.

Current ranking: #250
Peak ranking: #50 · 2024
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Marat Sharipov

Russia

Sharipov, 23, is the right-hander in this matchup. His career-high ranking was No. 243 in May 2025, and clay is listed as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #442
Peak ranking: #243 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Sep 2026, 22:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Sharipov's superior recent form and strong serving give him a slight edge over Kotov, making him a value bet at 1.90.

The match is likely to be close, with over 22.5 total games and a tiebreak possible.

Context

Sharipov, ranked 442, is a right-hander with a two-handed backhand and has been climbing through Challenger events.
Sharipov's last three hard-court matches show a 100% win rate and 13.7 aces per match, while Kotov's eight hard-court matches in the same window have a 75% win rate but lower ace output. This suggests Sharipov may have an edge on serve, though the sample is small.
- Sharipov's last15Stats bySurface Hard: record 3-0, aces per match 13.7, first serve points won 82.7%.
- Kotov's last15Stats bySurface Hard: record 6-2, aces per match 7.9, first serve points won 77.9%.
Kotov, 250th, has a career win percentage of 59.1% and has been a regular on the Challenger tour.
Despite the ranking gap, Kotov's last 15 matches show only a 53.3% win rate, and his clay results have been poor. Sharipov's overall recent record is stronger at 73.3%, suggesting the ranking difference may not translate into a clear advantage.
- Kotov's last15Stats overall record: 8-7 (53.3%).
- Sharipov's last15Stats overall record: 11-4 (73.3%).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Sharipov's stronger recent form and higher-quality wins give him a slight edge, though Kotov's solid hard-court record keeps it close.
- Last 15 overall record: Sharipov 73.3% vs Kotov 53.3%
- Last 15 hard-court record: Sharipov 3-0 (100%) vs Kotov 6-2 (75%)
- Sharipov has won 3 straight matches this tournament, including over Taro Daniel (rank 160)
- Kotov has also won 3 straight, but against lower-ranked opponents (183, 365, 204)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMarat SharipovEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have shown a tendency for longer matches, and Kotov's recent matches have consistently exceeded 22.5 games.
- Kotov last 15 average total games per match: 23.1
- Sharipov last 15 average total games per match: 20.8
- Both players have had multiple three-set matches recently
- Kotov's last 3 matches: 23, 26, 31 total games
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 22.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets for both players have often exceeded 9.5 games, suggesting a competitive opening set.
- Kotov's last 3 first sets: 9, 13, 9 games
- Sharipov's last 3 first sets: 10, 12, 13 games
- Both players have had close first sets recently
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second sets have also been competitive, with both players frequently reaching double-digit games.
- Kotov's last 3 second sets: 7, 13, 9 games
- Sharipov's last 3 second sets: 8, 13, 12 games
- Both players have had second sets with 10+ games in recent matches
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sharipov's strong first-set record on hard courts and Kotov's recent slow starts support a slight lean to Sharipov.
- Sharipov won first set in all 3 recent hard-court matches
- Kotov lost first set in 2 of his last 3 matches
- Sharipov first-set win conversion career: 90%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMarat SharipovEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players are strong servers on hard courts, and their combined ace rates suggest a high total ace count.
- Kotov last 15 hard-court aces per match: 7.9
- Sharipov last 15 hard-court aces per match: 13.7
- Combined average on hard courts: 21.6 aces per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 12.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have relatively low double fault rates on hard courts, making under 5.5 likely.
- Kotov last 15 hard-court double faults per match: 2.4
- Sharipov last 15 hard-court double faults per match: 1.3
- Combined average on hard courts: 3.7 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The closeness of the match and both players' history of tiebreaks make a tiebreak likely.
- Kotov has played tiebreaks in 4 of last 15 matches
- Sharipov has played tiebreaks in 5 of last 15 matches
- Both players have tiebreak win percentages around 54-55%
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance55%

Previous match context available

Pavel Kotov

8W 7L

3-6 6-1 6-1#183Alexis Galarneau

7-6(5) 7-6(7)#365Jake Delaney

3-6 6-3 7-6(9)#204Elias Ymer

6-4 6-4#335Daniel Elahi Galan

7-5 ret.#662Leo Raquillet

6-7(3) 6-3 6-0#707Franco Ribero

6-7(7) 6-4 6-2#83Marco Trungelliti

6-2 6-1#213Guy Den Ouden

1-6 6-1 6-2#230Cezar Cretu

6-1 3-6 6-4#158Gauthier Onclin

1-6 6-2 6-3#336Mikhail Kukushkin

7-6(7) 5-2 ret.#131Leandro Riedi

6-1 2-0 ret.#248Yi Zhou

4-6 6-3 6-4#196Harry Wendelken

7-6(9) 3-6 6-3#323Fajing Sun

Marat Sharipov (RUS)

11W 4L

6-4 6-4#408Omar Jasika

7-5 7-6(5)#160Taro Daniel

6-7(8) 7-5 6-2#420Yosuke Watanuki

6-4 6-2#279Sean Cuenin

6-1 6-1#623Alexander Vasilev

6-3 6-3#677Anton Arzhankin

6-3 6-2—Franco Ariel Vazquez

6-4 3-6 6-3—Aaron Funk

7-6(3) 6-3#401Andrej Martin

6-1 3-1 ret.#886Tomas Lanik

6-3 6-4—Patrick Jozwicki

6-2 3-6 7-6(1)#278Marvin Moeller

4-2 ret.#273Dominic Stricker

7-6(4) 6-3#802Cosme Rolland De Ravel

6-3 4-6 6-4#574Kirill Kivattsev

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PKPavel KotovKotov

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Marat Sharipov (RUS)(RUS)M(

Marat Sharipov (RUS) carries the stronger recent form — Pavel Kotov's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In63.1%+5.9pp57.2%

1st Serve Won70.7%+6.8pp77.5%

2nd Serve Won50.2%—50.2%

Aces / Match5.7+1.26.9

Double Faults / Match2.31.0 fewer3.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won38.3%+2.8pp41.1%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted37.2%+1.1pp38.3%

Break Pts Saved59.6%+1.6pp61.2%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.5%+2.4pp52.9%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

63.1%1st Serve In+5.9pp57.2%

70.7%1st Serve Won+6.8pp77.5%

50.2%2nd Serve Won—50.2%

5.7Aces / Match+1.26.9

2.3Double Faults / Match1.0 fewer3.3

Return · 0–1

38.3%Return Pts Won+2.8pp41.1%

Pressure · 0–2

37.2%Break Pts Converted+1.1pp38.3%

59.6%Break Pts Saved+1.6pp61.2%

Points · 0–1

50.5%Total Pts Won+2.4pp52.9%