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Predictions graded

Omar Jasika #402Australia0Marat Sharipov (RUS) #442Russia2

Sets 4-6 · 4-6Fri 11 Sept 2026, 10:50 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions2–625%

Edges0–20%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageOmar Jasika · 40 places

Omar Jasika

Australia

Jasika, 29, is the left-hander in this matchup. His recorded professional match volume has been predominantly on hard courts.

Current ranking: #402
Peak ranking: #155 · 2024
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 183 cm

Marat Sharipov

Russia

Sharipov, 23, is the right-hander in this matchup. His career-high ranking was No. 243 in May 2025, and clay is listed as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #442
Peak ranking: #243 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Sep 2026, 03:25 · Europe/Bucharest

Omar Jasika's superior hard-court form (12-3 last 15) and elite return/break efficiency make him a strong value at 2.75 against Marat Sharipov, whose serve is dangerous but whose hard-court sample is tiny.

The first set also offers value at 2.50, while total games lean over 21.5 but with low confidence.

Context

Jasika, 28, is a left-handed Australian ranked 408, with a career hard-court win percentage of 61.6%. Sharipov, 24, is a right-handed Russian ranked 442, known for a powerful serve with 2,419 career aces.
Jasika's 80% win rate in his last 15 matches on hard courts is backed by a 71.4% first-serve percentage and a 54.9% break-point conversion rate. Sharipov's hard-court sample is only two matches, but he has averaged 17.5 aces per match and won 83.2% of first-serve points, suggesting he can hold serve more easily. The key contrast is Jasika's consistency and return game against Sharipov's serve-dependent style, which may lead to tiebreaks or close sets.
- Jasika's last 15 hard-court matches: 12 wins, 3 losses (80% win rate).
- Jasika's first-serve points won: 71.8%, break points converted: 54.9%.
- Sharipov's last 2 hard-court matches: 2 wins, 17.5 aces per match, 83.2% first-serve points won.
- Sharipov's overall last 15 matches: 10 wins, 5 losses, but only 2 on hard courts.
Sharipov has been competing on clay for most of the summer, but his two hard-court matches this week show he can handle higher-ranked opponents.
Sharipov's wins over Daniel and Watanuki indicate he is comfortable on hard courts and can compete above his ranking. Jasika's recent opponents have been mostly ranked outside the top 200, with his only loss to Akira Santillan (ranked 331). This suggests Sharipov may be better tested for this quarter-final, though the sample size is small.
- Sharipov beat Taro Daniel (ranked 160) 7-5 7-6(5) on 2026-09-09.
- Sharipov beat Yosuke Watanuki (ranked 420) 6-7(8) 7-5 6-2 on 2026-09-07.
- Jasika's last three wins were against opponents ranked 219, 551, and 893.
- Jasika lost to Akira Santillan (ranked 331) on 2026-09-01.
The two players met once before, on hard court in April 2026, with Sharipov winning comfortably.
In that match, Sharipov won 77% of first-serve points and 61% of second-serve points, while Jasika won only 55% and 25% respectively. Sharipov also converted 71% of break points compared to Jasika's 67%. This head-to-head result suggests Sharipov's serve can trouble Jasika, but it is only one match and Jasika's current form is stronger than it was in April.
- H2H: Sharipov won 6-4 6-1 on 2026-04-19.
- Sharipov's first-serve points won: 77%, second-serve points won: 61%.
- Jasika's first-serve points won: 55%, second-serve points won: 25%.
- Sharipov converted 71% of break points, Jasika 67%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.75
The read
Jasika's superior hard-court form and return/break efficiency outweigh Sharipov's higher ace count, making Jasika the likely winner.
- Jasika last 15 on hard: 12-3 record, 59.7% games won, 55.5% total points won
- Sharipov last 15 overall: 10-5 but only 2-0 on hard with 56.9% games won; 13 of last 15 on clay
- Jasika return points won 44% vs Sharipov 41.1% overall; Jasika break point conversion 54.9% vs 37.2%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostOmar JasikaEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sharipov's serve-heavy style and Jasika's resilience could extend the match beyond 21.5 games.
- Jasika last 15 average 19.3 games per match; Sharipov last 15 average 21.5 games per match
- Sharipov's two hard matches averaged 29 games; Jasika's recent hard matches often 18-20 games
- Both players have solid serve stats, suggesting competitive sets
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
A competitive first set is likely given both players' serving ability and recent tight opening sets.
- Jasika first set average 9.3 games in last 15; Sharipov first set average 10.1 games
- Sharipov's hard matches had first sets of 12 and 13 games
- Both players have tiebreak experience (Jasika 58% career, Sharipov 54%)
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second sets have trended toward double-digit games for both players, supporting the over.
- Jasika second set average 9.7 games in last 15; Sharipov second set average 10.4 games
- Sharipov's hard matches had second sets of 10 and 13 games
- Both players have shown ability to hold serve in second sets
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.50
The read
Jasika's strong first-set record and current hard-court momentum give him the edge in the opening set.
- Jasika first set win conversion career 87%, last 15 sets won 78.1%
- Sharipov first set win conversion career 90% but recent hard sample only 2 matches
- Jasika has won first set in 11 of last 15 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostOmar JasikaEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sharipov's high ace rate, especially on hard courts, makes over 8.5 total aces likely.
- Sharipov averages 6.9 aces per match overall, 17.5 on hard (2 matches)
- Jasika averages only 1.7 aces per match, but Sharipov's serve is a major weapon
- Combined ace potential: Sharipov alone could approach 8-10 aces
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players' double fault rates suggest a combined total above 5.5 is plausible.
- Sharipov averages 3.6 double faults per match overall, 2.0 on hard (2 matches)
- Jasika averages 2.1 double faults per match
- Combined average around 5.7 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-4 6-1Omar Jasika#408vMarat Sharipov (RUS)#442Apr 19, 2026

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Omar Jasika

12W 3L

6-2 7-5#219Rio Noguchi 6-2 6-1#551Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong 7-6(7) 6-3#893Yaojie Zeng

6-2 6-3#331Akira Santillan

6-2 6-3#560Filip Peliwo

7-6(0) 6-2#891Aoran Wang

6-4 6-3—Kuan-Shou Chen

6-3 6-3#821Kousuke Ogura

6-7(5) 6-3 10-4#764Ryuki Matsuda

6-3 2-6 6-4#880Kristjan Tamm

7-6(3) 6-2#821Kousuke Ogura

6-2 6-2#894Yunseong Chung

6-3 6-0#865Miles Jones

6-1 3-1 ret.—Jaesung Choe

6-2 6-1—Seongwoo Cho

Marat Sharipov (RUS)

10W 5L

7-5 7-6(5)#160Taro Daniel 6-7(8) 7-5 6-2#420Yosuke Watanuki

6-4 6-2#279Sean Cuenin

6-1 6-1#623Alexander Vasilev

6-3 6-3#677Anton Arzhankin

6-3 6-2—Franco Ariel Vazquez

6-4 3-6 6-3—Aaron Funk

7-6(3) 6-3#401Andrej Martin

6-1 3-1 ret.#886Tomas Lanik

6-3 6-4—Patrick Jozwicki

6-2 3-6 7-6(1)#278Marvin Moeller

4-2 ret.#273Dominic Stricker

7-6(4) 6-3#802Cosme Rolland De Ravel

6-3 4-6 6-4#574Kirill Kivattsev

1-6 7-6(5) 6-4#383Andrey Chepelev

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

OJOmar JasikaJasika

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Marat Sharipov (RUS)(RUS)M(

Omar Jasika carries the stronger recent form — Marat Sharipov (RUS)'s route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In71.4%+14.4pp57.0%

1st Serve Won71.8%+4.0pp75.8%

2nd Serve Won55.6%+5.1pp50.5%

Aces / Match1.7+5.26.9

Double Faults / Match2.11.5 fewer3.6

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won44.0%+2.9pp41.1%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted54.9%+17.7pp37.2%

Break Pts Saved71.4%+12.2pp59.2%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won55.5%+2.9pp52.6%

Serve · 3–2

71.4%1st Serve In+14.4pp57.0%

71.8%1st Serve Won+4.0pp75.8%

55.6%2nd Serve Won+5.1pp50.5%

1.7Aces / Match+5.26.9

2.1Double Faults / Match1.5 fewer3.6

Return · 1–0

44.0%Return Pts Won+2.9pp41.1%

Pressure · 2–0

54.9%Break Pts Converted+17.7pp37.2%

71.4%Break Pts Saved+12.2pp59.2%

Points · 1–0

55.5%Total Pts Won+2.9pp52.6%