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Predictions graded

Marat Sharipov (RUS) #442Russia2Taro Daniel #186Japan0

Sets 7-5 · 7-6Wed 9 Sept 2026, 09:20 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions2–625%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageTaro Daniel · 256 places

Marat Sharipov

Russia

Sharipov, 23, is the right-hander in this matchup. His career-high ranking was No. 243 in May 2025, and clay is listed as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #442
Peak ranking: #243 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Taro Daniel

Japan

Daniel was born on 27 January 1993 and has reached a career-best singles ranking of No. 58. The supplied current ranking is No. 186.

Current ranking: #186
Peak ranking: #58
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Sep 2026, 16:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Taro Daniel is favored based on ranking and recent hard-court form, but Marat Sharipov's H2H win and strong serve make him a live underdog.

The match is likely to be close, with value on over 21.5 total games and Sharipov +3.5 games. Avoid betting Daniel at short odds due to negative expected value.

Context

Daniel, 33, is a veteran right-hander ranked 160 and has been a consistent Challenger-level competitor for over a decade.
Daniel's 73.3% win rate in the last 15 matches edges Sharipov's 66.7%, and his wins include opponents ranked 76, 101, and 108. Sharipov's recent wins have come mostly against players ranked outside the top 400, so Daniel's form is more battle-tested. However, Sharipov won their only previous meeting in 2025, so the ranking gap may not fully translate.
- Daniel last 15 record: 11-4 (73.3%), Sharipov: 10-5 (66.7%).
- Daniel's recent wins include Jacob Fearnley (rank 101), Jan Choinski (76), and Kyrian Jacquet (108).
- Sharipov's recent wins are mostly against opponents ranked 400+ or unranked.
Sharipov, 24, is a 188cm right-hander whose career first-serve win rate is 75%, and he has a strong serve for Challenger level.
Sharipov's 21 aces in his last hard-court match is an outlier but shows his serve can dominate when it is clicking. Daniel's 3 aces per match on hard courts suggests he relies more on rallying and returning. If Sharipov serves well, he can shorten points and pressure Daniel's second serve, but his first-serve percentage was only 67% in that match, so consistency is a question.
- Sharipov last 15 hard-court stats: 21 aces in 1 match, first serve in 67.3%.
- Daniel last 15 hard-court stats: 3 aces per match, first serve in 55.2%.
- Sharipov career first-serve win rate: 75%, Daniel: 68%.
The two players met once before, in the second round of a Challenger in 2025.
Sharipov's win came on hard court, the same surface as this match, and he saved a second-set collapse to win in three sets. Daniel had a higher first-serve percentage and won more second-serve points in that match, but Sharipov's first-serve effectiveness and tiebreak win made the difference. That result suggests Sharipov is not overmatched, but one match is a small sample.
- H2H: Sharipov won 7-6(5), 1-6, 6-4 on hard court in 2025.
- In that match, Sharipov won 82% of first-serve points vs Daniel's 79%.
- Daniel had a higher first-serve percentage (62% vs 55%) but lost the match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Taro Daniel

1.44fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 69.4%

0.0ppshort

Daniel's superior ranking and recent hard-court form give him the edge, but the odds overstate his probability relative to the model estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Daniel's superior ranking, stronger recent hard-court form, and higher-quality wins give him the edge, though Sharipov's H2H win adds uncertainty.
- Taro Daniel last 15 overall record 11-4 (73.3%), Sharipov 10-5 (66.7%)
- Daniel last 15 on hard: 6-2 (75%), Sharipov only 1 hard match in window (won)
- Daniel ranking 160 vs Sharipov 442; Daniel has beaten top-100 players recently (Fearnley, Choinski)
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostTaro DanielEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive matchup with strong serve and return stats suggests a close match likely to exceed 21.5 games.
- Sharipov last 15 average 21.0 games per match, Daniel 21.3
- H2H match had 30 games (7-6, 1-6, 6-4)
- Both players have high deciding set rates: Sharipov 58%, Daniel 50%
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sharipov's competitiveness and H2H win make him likely to cover a +3.5 game handicap even in a loss.
- Sharipov won H2H in three sets
- Sharipov last 15 games won 56.8%, Daniel 57.4%
- Sharipov has strong first serve points won (74.7%)
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMarat Sharipov (RUS) +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Strong serving and competitive first sets in recent matches point to a tight opener with over 9.5 games.
- Sharipov first serve points won 74.7%, Daniel 67.6%
- Both players have high first set win conversion rates
- H2H first set went to tiebreak (13 games)
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Even if one player dominates, the second set often tightens; both have solid second-serve numbers to extend games.
- Sharipov second serve points won 50.9%, Daniel 54%
- Both players have similar break point conversion rates around 40-50%
- Recent matches show multiple sets going to 10+ games
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The matchup is close enough that a deciding set is likely, supported by H2H and similar competitive profiles.
- Sharipov deciding set win rate 58%, Daniel 50%
- H2H went to three sets
- Both players have comeback rates around 17-18%
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Daniel's strong first-set record and recent hard-court dominance make him a slight favorite to take the opener.
- Daniel first set win conversion career 84%, Sharipov 90%
- Daniel last 15 sets won 68.6%, Sharipov 64.7%
- Daniel has won first set in 6 of last 8 hard matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostTaro DanielEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sharipov's big serve and the H2H ace count suggest a combined total above 8.5 aces.
- Sharipov averages 6.2 aces per match, Daniel 2.9
- H2H had 26 total aces (14+12)
- Sharipov's hard-court ace rate is high (21 in one match)
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Close sets and similar tiebreak records make at least one tiebreak probable.
- H2H first set went to tiebreak
- Sharipov tiebreak win rate 54%, Daniel 52%
- Both players have played multiple tiebreaks in recent matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sharipov's high double fault rate and low first serve percentage make over 5.5 double faults likely.
- Sharipov averages 3.8 double faults per match, Daniel 1.9
- H2H had 6 double faults (5+1)
- Sharipov's first serve percentage is only 56.9%
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W7-6(5) 1-6 6-4Marat Sharipov (RUS)#442vTaro Daniel#160Sep 9, 2025

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Marat Sharipov (RUS)

10W 5L

6-7(8) 7-5 6-2#420Yosuke Watanuki

6-4 6-2#279Sean Cuenin

6-1 6-1#623Alexander Vasilev

6-3 6-3#677Anton Arzhankin

6-3 6-2—Franco Ariel Vazquez

6-4 3-6 6-3—Aaron Funk

7-6(3) 6-3#401Andrej Martin

6-1 3-1 ret.#886Tomas Lanik

6-3 6-4—Patrick Jozwicki

6-2 3-6 7-6(1)#278Marvin Moeller

4-2 ret.#273Dominic Stricker

7-6(4) 6-3#802Cosme Rolland De Ravel

6-3 4-6 6-4#574Kirill Kivattsev

1-6 7-6(5) 6-4#383Andrey Chepelev

6-3 6-3—Drazen Petrovic

Taro Daniel

11W 4L

6-3 6-1#293Matthew Dellavedova

2-6 6-2 6-4#805Andrew Johnson

6-4 7-6(8)#136Stefanos Sakellaridis

6-4 6-1#101Jacob Fearnley

6-4 6-3#76Jan Choinski

6-3 6-2#492Duncan Chan

7-6(4) 2-6 6-1#167Dusan Lajovic

7-5 6-3—Maxime St-Hilaire

6-4 3-6 6-3#108Kyrian Jacquet

6-4 6-2#155Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

7-6(0) 6-4#70Botic Van De Zandschulp

6-2 2-6 6-2#347Carlos Sanchez Jover

6-0 6-2#897Federico Coria

4-6 6-2 6-2#75Valentin Royer

6-4 6-3#175Zdenek Kolar

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

M(Marat Sharipov (RUS)(RUS)

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Taro DanielDanielTD

Taro Daniel carries the stronger recent form — Marat Sharipov (RUS)'s route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In56.9%+2.5pp59.4%

1st Serve Won74.7%+7.1pp67.6%

2nd Serve Won50.9%+3.1pp54.0%

Aces / Match6.2+3.32.9

Double Faults / Match3.81.9 fewer1.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won41.5%+2.4pp43.9%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted39.2%+12.6pp51.8%

Break Pts Saved61.6%+1.8pp63.4%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won52.6%—52.9%

Serve · 2–3

56.9%1st Serve In+2.5pp59.4%

74.7%1st Serve Won+7.1pp67.6%

50.9%2nd Serve Won+3.1pp54.0%

6.2Aces / Match+3.32.9

3.8Double Faults / Match1.9 fewer1.9

Return · 0–1

41.5%Return Pts Won+2.4pp43.9%

Pressure · 0–2

39.2%Break Pts Converted+12.6pp51.8%

61.6%Break Pts Saved+1.8pp63.4%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

52.6%Total Pts Won—52.9%