AustriaTulln - AustriaFinished

Predictions graded

Mika Brunold #423Switzerland2Gustavo Heide #133Brazil0

Sets 6-2 · 6-1Fri 11 Sept 2026, 10:10 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalClay

Predictions1–713%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageGustavo Heide · 290 places

Mika Brunold

Switzerland

Swiss player born 2 October 2004. ITF lists clay as his preferred surface; his career-high ATP singles ranking was No. 289 in August 2025.

Current ranking: #423
Peak ranking: #289 · 2025
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Gustavo Heide

Brazil

Reliable current profile details beyond the supplied ranking, playing hand and height were not confirmed. Use the structured form and match statistics as the main context.

Current ranking: #133
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Sep 2026, 03:29 · Europe/Bucharest

Heide is favored by ranking and H2H, but Brunold's superior recent form (11-4 vs 8-7) and games won percentage (58.3% vs 49.7%) make the 1.36 odds poor value.

Brunold +3.5 games and over 21.5 total games are the best angles.

Context

Brunold, 410 in the world, is a 191cm right-hander from Switzerland who has built his season on clay.
He has won 11 of his last 15 matches, all on clay, including four straight wins this week in Tulln. His serve and return numbers are solid, and he has been efficient on break points. This form gives him a real chance against a higher-ranked opponent.
- Brunold's last 15 matches: 11 wins, 4 losses, all on clay.
- He has won his last four matches in Tulln, including a retirement win over Miguel Damas.
- His last 15 stats: 73.3% win rate, 58.3% games won, 45.7% break points converted.
Heide, ranked 128, is a Brazilian right-hander who has played most of his career on clay.
He has won 8 of his last 12 clay matches, including two wins this week in Tulln. His serve is effective on clay, and he saves break points well. However, his return numbers are slightly below Brunold's, which could keep the match close.
- Heide's last 12 clay matches: 8 wins, 4 losses.
- He has won his last two matches in Tulln, beating Diego Dedura and Sean Cuenin.
- His clay stats: 66.7% win rate, 70.6% break points saved, 69.4% first serve points won.
The two players met once before, in a Challenger event in 2024.
Heide won that match comfortably, and the surface was clay, the same as today. While that result is two years old, it gives Heide a psychological edge and shows he can handle Brunold's game.
- H2H: Heide leads 1-0, winning 6-4 6-2 on clay in July 2024.
- In that match, Heide won 46% of return points and converted 44% of break points.
Gustavo Heide, ATP No. 128, is the away player in this Tulln quarter-final.
Heide played a three-hour-15-minute Porto semifinal on 5 September, six days before this match. The extended clay-court effort adds to his recent workload, but the gap should allow enough recovery.
- Heide lost 7-5, 3-6, 6-3 in a three-hour-15-minute Porto semifinal on 5 September.
- Stored recent sample: 4 wins from 5 tracked matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Sep 2026, 03:28 · Europe/BucharestDiário do Tênis — Heide perde batalha de três horas nas semifinais no Challenger do Portodiariodotenis.com.br · 5 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Gustavo Heide

1.36fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 73.5%

0.0ppshort

Heide's ranking and clay pedigree give him an edge, but the odds overestimate his chances relative to the model.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Heide's superior ranking, clay pedigree, and H2H win give him the edge, though Brunold's recent form narrows the gap.
- Heide is ranked 128 vs Brunold 410, a large ranking gap.
- Heide's clay record in 2026 is 30-13, Brunold's is 19-10.
- Heide won the only H2H meeting 6-4 6-2 on clay in July 2024.
- Heide's last15 clay record is 8-4, Brunold's is 11-4 but against weaker opposition.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostGustavo HeideEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive clay match with solid serving and break-point saving should produce over 21.5 games.
- Brunold's last15 average games per match is 20.1, Heide's is 21.7.
- Both players have high break-point save rates: Brunold 61.7%, Heide 67.3%.
- Heide's last15 matches average 116.4 minutes, suggesting longer matches.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Brunold's superior recent form and games won percentage make +3.5 games a solid handicap.
- Brunold's last15 games won percentage is 58.3%, Heide's is 49.7%.
- Brunold has won 11 of last15 matches, Heide 8 of last15.
- Brunold's recent clay form is strong with wins over higher-ranked opponents.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMika Brunold +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Evenly matched first sets with strong serving suggest a close set over 9.5 games.
- Brunold's last15 first sets average 9.8 games, Heide's average 9.5.
- Both players have first-serve points won around 69%.
- H2H first set was 6-4, totaling 10 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Heide's strong first-set record and H2H precedent support a slight edge in set 1.
- Heide won the first set 6-4 in their only H2H match.
- Heide's first-set win conversion is 89% career, Brunold's is 86%.
- Heide's last15 first-serve points won is 69.3%, Brunold's is 69.2%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostGustavo HeideEstimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Heide's high double fault rate pushes the combined total over 6.5.
- Heide averages 4.4 double faults per match in last15, Brunold 2.2.
- Combined average double faults is 6.6.
- Heide's clay double faults per match is 4.2.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined ace averages are close to the line, making over 5.5 a coin flip.
- Heide averages 2.9 aces per match in last15, Brunold 2.3.
- Combined average aces per match is 5.2.
- Heide's clay aces per match is 3.1, Brunold's is 2.3.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Heide's price is too short given Brunold's recent form and the competitive nature of the matchup.

Prediction history

Gustavo Heide has been highly reliable when projected to win

Gustavo Heide has fulfilled 7 of 11 win predictions, a 64% success rate. His average estimated probability was 63.5%, closely matching the 7 expected wins. All four misses came as losses, with no draws or subject wins, indicating clear defeats when he fails.

Recent evidence for Gustavo Heide11 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

18 Jul·ATP Kitzbuhel

#136Gustavo Heide0-2#262Kilian Feldbausch

BetBugsGustavo Heide to win·58%

Missed

18 Jul 2026

ATP Kitzbuhel

#136Gustavo Heide0-2#262Kilian Feldbausch

Gustavo Heide to win

58%probability

Kilian Feldbausch won

Missed

9 Jul·Iasi - Romania

#272Cezar Cretu1-2#141Gustavo Heide

BetBugsGustavo Heide to win·62%

Matched

9 Jul 2026

Iasi - Romania

#272Cezar Cretu1-2#141Gustavo Heide

Gustavo Heide to win

62%probability

Gustavo Heide won

Matched

4 Jul·Milan - Italy

#141Gustavo Heide0-2#195Marco Cecchinato

BetBugsGustavo Heide to win·58%

Missed

4 Jul 2026

Milan - Italy

#141Gustavo Heide0-2#195Marco Cecchinato

Gustavo Heide to win

58%probability

Marco Cecchinato won

Missed

3 Jul·Milan - Italy

#141Gustavo Heide2-0#359Enrico Dalla Valle

BetBugsGustavo Heide to win·62%

Matched

3 Jul 2026

Milan - Italy

#141Gustavo Heide2-0#359Enrico Dalla Valle

Gustavo Heide to win

62%probability

Gustavo Heide won

Matched

1 Jul·Milan - Italy

#141Gustavo Heide2-0#253Alex Barrena

BetBugsGustavo Heide to win·72%

Matched

1 Jul 2026

Milan - Italy

#141Gustavo Heide2-0#253Alex Barrena

Gustavo Heide to win

72%probability

Gustavo Heide won

Matched

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-4 6-2Mika Brunold#410vGustavo Heide#128Jul 13, 2024

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Mika Brunold

11W 4L

6-1 6-7(2) 6-2#537Filip Misolic 6-3 4-0 ret.#316Miguel Damas 7-5 6-4#443Matthew William Donald

7-6(4) 6-3#573Kai Wehnelt

7-6(3) 6-4#283Sandro Kopp

6-3 6-4#338Raphael Perot

6-2 7-6(3)#826Liam Gavrielides

6-3 6-4#657Ergi Kirkin

6-4 7-6(3)#273Dominic Stricker

6-3 3-6 6-3#328Calvin Hemery

7-6(4) 6-1#416Patrick Zahraj

6-3 6-3#333Enrico Dalla Valle

6-1 6-2—Alex De Gabriele

6-4 6-3#267Harold Mayot

6-1 6-0#316Miguel Damas

Gustavo Heide

8W 7L

6-1 7-5#190Diego Dedura

6-3 6-4#279Sean Cuenin 7-6(5) 3-6 6-3#306Facundo Mena 6-4 6-3#280Thiago Moura Monteiro 7-5 7-5#355Tiago Pereira 6-4 6-3#762Goncalo Marques

2-6 6-4 6-4#171Joel Schwaerzler

6-3 6-2#267Harold Mayot

6-3 6-4#40Luca Van Assche

6-4 6-2#233Kilian Feldbausch

6-1 6-3#103Titouan Droguet

2-6 7-5 6-3#230Cezar Cretu

6-4 7-6(4)#896David Poljak

6-1 7-5#166Marco Cecchinato

7-6(4) 7-6(5)#333Enrico Dalla Valle

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MBMika BrunoldBrunold

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Gustavo HeideHeideGH

Mika Brunold carries the stronger recent form — Gustavo Heide's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In67.3%+9.7pp57.6%

1st Serve Won69.2%—69.3%

2nd Serve Won55.1%+1.9pp53.2%

Aces / Match2.3+0.62.9

Double Faults / Match2.22.2 fewer4.4

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won42.1%+5.1pp37.0%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted45.7%+6.4pp39.3%

Break Pts Saved61.7%+5.6pp67.3%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.1%+3.2pp49.9%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

67.3%1st Serve In+9.7pp57.6%

69.2%1st Serve Won—69.3%

55.1%2nd Serve Won+1.9pp53.2%

2.3Aces / Match+0.62.9

2.2Double Faults / Match2.2 fewer4.4

Return · 1–0

42.1%Return Pts Won+5.1pp37.0%

Pressure · 1–1

45.7%Break Pts Converted+6.4pp39.3%

61.7%Break Pts Saved+5.6pp67.3%

Points · 1–0

53.1%Total Pts Won+3.2pp49.9%

Mika Brunold

Gustavo Heide

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Gustavo Heide

Result0 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets0 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Gustavo Heide @ 1.36

Head-to-Head

Mika Brunold

Gustavo Heide

Stat Battle