FranceCassis - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Raphael Perot #353France0Robin Bertrand #409France2

Sets 1-6 · 0-6Thu 10 Sept 2026, 12:40 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions1–713%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageRaphael Perot · 56 places

Raphael Perot

France

French player born 30 June 2001. Reliable public sources identify a career-best ranking of No. 365 in March 2026; no clearly sourced preferred-surface statement was found.

Current ranking: #353
Peak ranking: #365 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Robin Bertrand

France

Bertrand, 23, is the right-hander in this matchup. He is ranked No. 409 and reached a career-high No. 260 in 2025.

Current ranking: #409
Peak ranking: #260
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Sep 2026, 03:22 · Europe/Bucharest

Perot's dominant hard-court form and recent H2H win make him the clear favorite, but the match winner odds offer no value.

The best betting angles are Perot -3.5 games and over 21.5 total games, with a straight-set win also plausible.

Context

Perot, ranked 338, has built his recent form on hard courts, winning six straight matches on the surface.
Perot's last 15 hard-court matches show a 100% win rate and a 56% total points won, compared to Bertrand's 60% win rate and 51.7% total points won. Perot also won their meeting last week in three sets, giving him a clear recent edge on this surface.
- Perot's last 15 hard-court record: 6-0 (100%).
- Perot's hard-court total points won: 56.0% vs Bertrand's 51.7%.
- Perot beat Bertrand 4-6 6-2 6-3 on hard court on 2026-09-06.
Perot has faced Bertrand twice and won both matches, one on clay and one on hard.
The most recent meeting was on hard court just days ago, where Perot came from a set down to win. That result suggests Perot has a tactical or matchup advantage that could carry into this rematch.
- H2H: Perot leads 2-0.
- Last meeting: 2026-09-06, Perot won 4-6 6-2 6-3 on hard court.
- First meeting: 2026-06-16, Perot won 7-6(7) 7-5 on clay.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Raphael Perot

1.33fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Perot's superior recent hard-court form and direct H2H win give him a clear edge.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Perot's superior recent hard-court form and direct H2H win give him a clear edge.
- Perot is 6-0 on hard in last 15, winning 85.7% of sets and 65.1% of games.
- Perot beat Bertrand 4-6 6-2 6-3 on hard just 3 days ago.
- Perot's last-15 overall return points won is 46.3% vs Bertrand's 40.8%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostRaphael PerotEstimated chance72%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent hard-court matches trend toward competitive totals, and their H2H went over this line.
- Their last meeting had 27 games (4-6 6-2 6-3).
- Perot's hard-court matches average 21.0 games per match in last 15.
- Bertrand's hard-court matches average 20.6 games per match in last 15.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Set 1 is likely to be competitive, with both players' recent set lengths supporting over 9.5 games.
- Their last meeting's first set had 10 games (6-4).
- Perot's last 15 hard-court sets average 9.0 games per set.
- Bertrand's last 15 hard-court sets average 9.7 games per set.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Perot's superior hard-court game dominance supports a handicap cover of -3.5 games.
- Perot won their last meeting by 5 games (16-11).
- Perot's hard-court game win rate is 65.1% vs Bertrand's 53.7%.
- Perot's average hard-court match margin is +4.3 games.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostRaphael Perot -3.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Perot's strong start tendency and recent H2H first-set win support his set 1 edge.
- Perot won the first set in their last meeting 6-4.
- Perot's first-set win conversion career is 93%.
- Perot has won 6 straight hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostRaphael PerotEstimated chance62%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent hard-court matches have been relatively tiebreak-free, and their H2H had none.
- Perot's last 15 hard-court matches had no tiebreaks in 6 matches.
- Bertrand's last 15 hard-court matches had 3 tiebreaks in 15 matches.
- Their last meeting had no tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance62%

Head-to-Head

2-0 (2 meetings)

W4-6 6-2 6-3Raphael Perot#338vRobin Bertrand#409Sep 6, 2026

W7-6(7) 7-5Raphael Perot#338vRobin Bertrand#409Jun 16, 2026

2 total meetings

Previous match context available

Raphael Perot

12W 3L

6-4 6-2#158Gauthier Onclin

4-6 6-2 6-3#409Robin Bertrand

7-6(3) 6-2#840Alex Knaff

6-2 7-5#882Alexandre Reco

4-6 6-1 6-2—Liam Branger

6-1 6-2#851Julio Cesar Porras

6-3 6-4#410Mika Brunold

7-5 6-3#273Dominic Stricker

6-1 6-1—Lars Goran Verwerft

6-2 6-4#244Gilles Arnaud Bailly

6-2 4-6 6-4#450Jack Loge

6-2 6-3#781Abel Forger

6-0 6-1—Bjorn Schoemacher

7-5 6-4#416Patrick Zahraj

5-7 6-4 6-4#416Patrick Zahraj

Robin Bertrand

9W 6L

6-2 6-4#893Mathieu Scaglia

4-6 6-2 6-3#338Raphael Perot

6-3 7-5#581John Echeverria

6-3 6-4#639Matisse Bobichon

6-4 7-6(1)#850Kenny de Schepper

6-4 6-4#1765Luc Fomba

7-5 7-6(4)—Mathys Domenc

6-0 6-2—Chetanna Amadike

5-2 ret.—Alessandro Aufiero

6-2 7-6(5)#894Andrea Colombo

7-5 7-6(5)#762Goncalo Marques

6-2 3-6 6-0—Rocco Piatti

6-2 6-4—Tiago Silva

7-5 6-4#238Alejandro Moro Canas

4-6 6-1 6-3#225Oliver Crawford

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

RPRaphael PerotPerot

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Robin BertrandBertrandRB

Raphael Perot carries the stronger recent form — Robin Bertrand's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In63.2%+2.6pp65.8%

1st Serve Won65.1%+3.3pp68.4%

2nd Serve Won54.4%+1.6pp52.8%

Aces / Match1.5+0.62.1

Double Faults / Match1.8—2.0

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won46.3%+5.5pp40.8%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted52.4%+2.4pp50.0%

Break Pts Saved56.5%+6.5pp50.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.6%+1.9pp51.7%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

63.2%1st Serve In+2.6pp65.8%

65.1%1st Serve Won+3.3pp68.4%

54.4%2nd Serve Won+1.6pp52.8%

1.5Aces / Match+0.62.1

1.8Double Faults / Match—2.0

Return · 1–0

46.3%Return Pts Won+5.5pp40.8%

Pressure · 2–0

52.4%Break Pts Converted+2.4pp50.0%

56.5%Break Pts Saved+6.5pp50.0%

Points · 1–0

53.6%Total Pts Won+1.9pp51.7%