FranceCassis - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Gauthier Onclin #167Belgium0Raphael Perot #353France2

Sets 4-6 · 2-6Tue 8 Sept 2026, 11:10 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions7–188%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageGauthier Onclin · 186 places

Gauthier Onclin

Belgium

At 25, he reached a career-high No. 167 on 3 August 2026. The ITF lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #167
Peak ranking: #167 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Raphael Perot

France

French player born 30 June 2001. Reliable public sources identify a career-best ranking of No. 365 in March 2026; no clearly sourced preferred-surface statement was found.

Current ranking: #353
Peak ranking: #365 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Sep 2026, 03:41 · Europe/Bucharest

Perot's dominant hard-court form and superior return game make him a strong favorite despite the odds.

Back Perot to win at 2.75, with a lean on the over 21.5 total games. Avoid set betting due to low confidence.

Context

Perot, 338th, has built his 2026 hard-court record to 5-1 and is coming off a title run in Cassis qualifying.
His five straight hard-court wins include four qualifying matches this week, so he is already comfortable with the conditions and court speed. Onclin has lost two of his last three hard-court matches, including a first-round exit last week, which gives Perot a clear current-surface edge.
- Perot's last five hard-court matches: W vs Bertrand, W vs Knaff, W vs Reco, W vs Branger, W vs Porras.
- Onclin's last three hard-court matches: L vs Sachko, L vs Kopriva, W vs Skatov.
- Perot's hard-court record in last 15: 5-0 (100%). Onclin's hard-court record in last 15: 4-3 (57.1%).
Onclin, ranked 158th, has a 1-0 head-to-head lead over Perot from a March indoor hard-court match.
The previous meeting was on indoor hard, where Onclin's serve and return numbers were clearly better. Today's outdoor hard court may reduce that advantage, but the straight-set win still gives Onclin a psychological and tactical reference point.
- H2H: Onclin def. Perot 6-4 3-6 6-0 on 2026-03-21 (indoor hard).
- In that match, Onclin won 76% of first-serve points and 47% of return points; Perot won 52% and 34% respectively.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.75
The read
Perot's dominant recent hard-court form and superior return game give him a clear edge over Onclin, whose hard-court numbers are below par.
- Perot is 5-0 on hard in last 15 matches, winning 64.8% of games and 56.2% of total points.
- Onclin is 4-3 on hard in last 15, winning only 49.4% of games and 48.4% of total points.
- Perot's return points won on hard is 48.8% vs Onclin's 36.3%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonRaphael PerotEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Onclin's matches tend to be longer, and the competitive nature of this matchup suggests a total above 21.5 games.
- Onclin's last 15 matches average 25.6 games per match.
- Perot's last 15 matches average 20.7 games per match.
- Their only H2H match had 25 games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive, with both players holding serve at a decent rate.
- Onclin's recent hard-court sets average 9.8 games.
- Perot's recent hard-court sets average 9.0 games.
- Both players have similar first-serve points won percentages on hard.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Perot's strong starts on hard courts and Onclin's recent first-set struggles favor Perot in the opening set.
- Perot has won the first set in 4 of his last 5 hard-court matches.
- Onclin lost the first set in his last two hard-court matches.
- Perot's first-set win conversion career is 93%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonRaphael PerotEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player is a big server, so the total aces are likely to stay under 7.5.
- Onclin averages 2.2 aces per match on hard in last 15.
- Perot averages 1.8 aces per match on hard in last 15.
- Combined average is 4.0 aces per match.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 7.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have relatively low double fault rates on hard courts, making under 5.5 likely.
- Onclin averages 2.0 double faults per match on hard in last 15.
- Perot averages 1.6 double faults per match on hard in last 15.
- Combined average is 3.6 double faults per match.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks are not frequent in their recent hard-court matches, so a tiebreak is less likely.
- Onclin has played 2 tiebreaks in his last 7 hard-court matches.
- Perot has played 1 tiebreak in his last 5 hard-court matches.
- Both players have similar first-serve points won percentages on hard.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-4 3-6 6-0Gauthier Onclin#158vRaphael Perot#338Mar 21, 2026

1 total meetings

Gauthier Onclin

8W 7L

7-5 7-5#188Vitaliy Sachko

6-4 6-4#69Vit Kopriva

2-6 6-2 6-3#205Timofey Skatov

6-4 5-7 6-4#238Alejandro Moro Canas

6-3 6-4#683Ryan Seggerman

6-3 6-3#211Andres Andrade

6-4 3-6 6-3#330Tyler Zink

6-2 2-6 7-6(2)#190Diego Dedura

6-2 6-7(5) 6-3#145Tom Gentzsch

6-2 7-6(6)#430Niels Visker

7-6(13) 6-1#324Duje Ajdukovic

3-6 7-6(3) 6-4#493Thijs Boogaard

5-7 7-6(5) 6-2#298Florian Broska

4-6 6-2 6-2#541Gerard Campana Lee

6-2 4-6 6-3#117Shintaro Mochizuki

Raphael Perot

12W 3L

4-6 6-2 6-3#409Robin Bertrand

7-6(3) 6-2#840Alex Knaff

6-2 7-5#882Alexandre Reco

4-6 6-1 6-2—Liam Branger

6-1 6-2#851Julio Cesar Porras

6-3 6-4#410Mika Brunold

7-5 6-3#273Dominic Stricker

6-1 6-1—Lars Goran Verwerft

6-2 6-4#244Gilles Arnaud Bailly

6-2 4-6 6-4#450Jack Loge

6-2 6-3#781Abel Forger

6-0 6-1—Bjorn Schoemacher

7-5 6-4#416Patrick Zahraj

5-7 6-4 6-4#416Patrick Zahraj

6-3 6-3#636Adrian Oetzbach

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

GOGauthier OnclinOnclin

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Raphael PerotPerotRP

Raphael Perot carries the stronger recent form — Gauthier Onclin's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1556.5%+8.0pp64.5%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1567.1%+1.7pp65.4%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1552.5%+1.6pp54.1%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/151.8+0.41.4

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/153.21.7 fewer1.5

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1539.3%+6.7pp46.0%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1550.5%+2.4pp52.9%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1554.6%+6.3pp60.9%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1550.0%+3.6pp53.6%

Serve · 2–3

56.5%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+8.0pp64.5%

67.1%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+1.7pp65.4%

52.5%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+1.6pp54.1%

1.8Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+0.41.4

3.2Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/151.7 fewer1.5

Return · 0–1

39.3%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+6.7pp46.0%

Pressure · 0–2

50.5%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+2.4pp52.9%

54.6%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+6.3pp60.9%

Points · 0–1

50.0%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+3.6pp53.6%