ChinaShanghai - ChinaFinished

Predictions graded

Jie Cui #450China0Yi Zhou #240China2

Sets 6-7 · 4-6Thu 10 Sept 2026, 09:20 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions5–183%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageYi Zhou · 210 places

Jie Cui

China

China's Cui was born on 24 January 1998. Public profile data identifies a career-best singles ranking of No. 280 in January 2025; no reliable preferred-surface information was found.

Current ranking: #450
Peak ranking: #280 · 2025
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Yi Zhou

China

At 21, he has a career-high ranking of No. 217, reached on 25 May 2026. He is a 193 cm right-hander; no reliable source explicitly identifies a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #240
Peak ranking: #217 · 2026
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Sep 2026, 03:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Yi Zhou has the ranking and H2H edge, but Jie Cui's recent hard-court form and return game make this closer than odds suggest.

Back Cui +3.5 games and over 10.5 aces; avoid Zhou at short odds.

Context

Zhou, 248th, has a bigger serve than Cui and has won their last two meetings, both on hard courts.
Zhou's 38 aces across three matches and 47% break point conversion show he can pressure Cui's serve. Cui's 32% break point conversion in those matches suggests he has struggled to capitalize on chances. The January result was straight sets, but the October 2025 match went three sets, so Cui can be competitive.
- Zhou won 6-3 7-6(4) in January 2026 and 6-7(6) 6-4 7-5 in October 2025.
- Zhou has 38 aces and 47% break point conversion in H2H; Cui has 19 aces and 32% conversion.
- All three meetings were on hard courts.
Cui, 454th, has been more consistent on hard courts recently, while Zhou has played more on grass.
Cui's 50% win rate on hard courts in his last 14 matches is better than Zhou's 42.9% in 7 matches. However, Zhou's sample is smaller and includes tougher opponents. Cui's recent win over Fajing Sun (ranked 323) shows he can beat players near Zhou's level.
- Cui: 7-7 record on hard courts in last 14 matches (50%).
- Zhou: 3-4 record on hard courts in last 7 matches (42.9%).
- Cui beat Fajing Sun (ranked 323) in his last match; Zhou beat Sergey Fomin (ranked 295).
Zhou's first serve wins 71.2% of points, but his second serve is vulnerable at 49.7%.
Zhou's ace count gives him free points, but his double faults and weaker second serve could give Cui openings. Cui's first serve is less dominant (70.1% points won) but his second serve is slightly better (51%). The match may hinge on whether Zhou can limit double faults.
- Zhou: 7.2 aces per match, 3.1 double faults per match, 71.2% first serve points won, 49.7% second serve points won.
- Cui: 3.5 aces per match, 2.1 double faults per match, 70.1% first serve points won, 51% second serve points won.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Yi Zhou

1.40fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Despite the ranking and H2H edge, the model estimate of 58% is well below the implied probability, making this a negative-value bet.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Yi Zhou's superior ranking, recent form, and H2H edge give him a moderate advantage on hard court.
- Yi Zhou leads H2H 2-1, winning the last two meetings in 2026 and 2025.
- Yi Zhou's last 15 overall record is 8-7 (53.3%) vs Jie Cui's 7-8 (46.7%).
- Yi Zhou has a higher career ranking (248 vs 454) and stronger recent wins over higher-ranked opponents.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonYi ZhouEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Cui's competitive stats and H2H history make him likely to cover a +3.5 game handicap.
- Cui's games won percentage is 53.8%, Zhou's 51.6%.
- Cui won their most recent H2H on hard court in straight sets.
- Cui's return points won is 40.8% vs Zhou's 36.8%.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonJie Cui +3.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive H2H and balanced recent stats suggest a match likely to exceed 22.5 games.
- Both players have similar games won percentages: Cui 53.8%, Zhou 51.6%.
- H2H matches have been competitive, with two of three going to three sets or tiebreaks.
- Cui's average match duration is 124.8 minutes, Zhou's 110.1 minutes.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 22.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Yi Zhou's stronger serve and H2H pattern suggest a slight edge in the opening set.
- Yi Zhou won the first set in his last two H2H wins.
- Yi Zhou's first serve points won on hard is 74.2% vs Cui's 69.5%.
- Yi Zhou's break point save rate is 66% on hard vs Cui's 60.9%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonYi ZhouEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Zhou's high ace rate combined with Cui's moderate ace output makes over 10.5 total aces likely.
- Yi Zhou averages 7.2 aces per match in last 15, Jie Cui 3.5.
- In H2H, Zhou has 38 aces in 3 matches (12.7 per match), Cui 19 (6.3 per match).
- Zhou's hard court ace average is 8.3 per match.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 10.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

1-2 (3 meetings)

L6-3 7-6(4)Jie Cui#454vYi Zhou#248Jan 26, 2026

L6-7(6) 6-4 7-5Jie Cui#454vYi Zhou#248Oct 18, 2025

W6-4 6-4Jie Cui#454vYi Zhou#248Apr 29, 2025

3 total meetings

Previous match context available

Jie Cui

7W 8L

7-5 6-4#323Fajing Sun 6-3 6-4#464James Kent Trotter

6-2 4-6 7-5#524Aziz Dougaz

6-4 6-2#288Petr Bar Biryukov

6-3 6-4#533Aziz Ouakaa

6-7(3) 7-6(4) 6-3#770Matthew Forbes

6-3 6-4#712Thomas Fancutt

6-4 7-6(7)#770Matthew Forbes

6-3 7-6(2)#400Trevor Svajda

4-6 7-6(5) 6-4#652Dmitry Popko

6-0 6-3—Alejandro Jacome Jaramillo

3-6 6-1 6-4#492Duncan Chan

6-4 1-6 7-6(3)#867Qian Sun

6-1 6-3—Shixun Zhu

6-0 6-1#898Jesse Delaney

Yi Zhou

8W 7L

7-6(1) 7-5#295Sergey Fomin 3-6 7-6(4) 6-3#393Ilya Ivashka

3-6 6-1 6-3#322Daniel Milavsky

6-4 7-6(6)#203Luka Pavlovic

6-1 6-4#326Michael Geerts

5-7 7-6(5) 6-3#355Tiago Pereira

6-3 3-6 6-4#297Stefan Kozlov

6-3 6-4#287Alastair Gray

6-7(3) 6-1 6-1#568Daniel De Jonge

6-4 6-3#587Robin Catry

1-6 7-6(2) 6-2 6-3#161Billy Harris

7-6(7) 6-4#147Stefano Travaglia

6-4 6-4#213Guy Den Ouden

6-4 6-2#143Jurij Rodionov

7-6(5) 6-3#115Nicolas Mejia

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JCJie CuiCui

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Yi ZhouZhouYZ

Jie Cui carries the stronger recent form — Yi Zhou's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In63.6%+1.8pp61.8%

1st Serve Won70.1%+1.1pp71.2%

2nd Serve Won51.0%+1.3pp49.7%

Aces / Match3.5+3.77.2

Double Faults / Match2.11.0 fewer3.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won40.8%+4.0pp36.8%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted49.5%+10.5pp39.0%

Break Pts Saved61.5%+7.4pp68.9%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.8%+1.3pp50.5%

Serve · 3–2

63.6%1st Serve In+1.8pp61.8%

70.1%1st Serve Won+1.1pp71.2%

51.0%2nd Serve Won+1.3pp49.7%

3.5Aces / Match+3.77.2

2.1Double Faults / Match1.0 fewer3.1

Return · 1–0

40.8%Return Pts Won+4.0pp36.8%

Pressure · 1–1

49.5%Break Pts Converted+10.5pp39.0%

61.5%Break Pts Saved+7.4pp68.9%

Points · 1–0

51.8%Total Pts Won+1.3pp50.5%