ChinaShanghai - ChinaFinished

Predictions graded

Jie Cui #450China2Fajing Sun #326China0

Sets 7-5 · 6-4Tue 8 Sept 2026, 07:10 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions4–267%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFajing Sun · 124 places

Jie Cui

China

China's Cui was born on 24 January 1998. Public profile data identifies a career-best singles ranking of No. 280 in January 2025; no reliable preferred-surface information was found.

Current ranking: #450
Peak ranking: #280 · 2025
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Fajing Sun

China

Chinese right-hander whose official ITF profile lists hard courts as his preferred surface. He reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 197 in May 2026.

Current ranking: #326
Peak ranking: #197 · 2026
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Sep 2026, 03:22 · Europe/Bucharest

Jie Cui has a clear edge over Fajing Sun on hard courts, backed by superior return stats and a 3-1 H2H record on the surface.

The best betting angle is Cui to win at odds of 2.20, offering a 12.5-point edge over the model's 58% probability. Total games over 21.5 is also a solid lean given both players' recent match lengths.

Context

Cui, 454th, and Sun, 323rd, are both Chinese players who have met six times since 2019, mostly on hard courts.
Cui has won the last three meetings, including two in 2024, and holds a 3-1 edge on hard courts. That pattern suggests he has a reliable tactical answer to Sun's game, though Sun did win their most recent hard-court meeting in 2023.
- Cui leads the overall head-to-head 4-2.
- Cui has won the last three meetings (2024-09-28, 2024-05-25, 2023-08-20).
- On hard courts, Cui leads 3-1.
Cui and Sun are both ranked outside the top 300 and have played mostly Challenger and ITF events in 2026.
Cui has won 48.6% of sets and 52.2% of games in that span, while Sun has won only 36.4% of sets and 47.2% of games. Cui's stronger set and game percentages suggest he has been more consistent even in losses, which could matter in a close match.
- Cui last 15: 6-9 record, 48.6% sets won, 52.2% games won.
- Sun last 15: 6-9 record, 36.4% sets won, 47.2% games won.
- Cui's total points won is 50.8% vs Sun's 49.1%.
Both players rely on return games to create chances, but their conversion rates differ sharply.
Cui's 52% break point conversion is a clear edge over Sun's 38.2%. In a match likely to feature many break opportunities, Cui's efficiency could be decisive, especially if he continues to create chances at a similar rate.
- Cui break points converted: 52% (53/102).
- Sun break points converted: 38.2% (34/89).
- Cui return points won: 39.9% vs Sun's 37.4%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Cui's superior return game and positive H2H edge on hard courts give him a moderate advantage.
- H2H: Jie Cui leads 4-2 overall, including 3-1 on hard courts.
- Last 15 hard-court: Cui 6-8, Sun 6-8; Cui games won 52.9% vs Sun 47.8%.
- Cui return points won 40.1% vs Sun 37.9% on hard in last 15.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJie CuiEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent hard-court matches average over 21.5 games, and H2H history supports a competitive total.
- Cui last 15 hard-court average games per match: 22.4 (314 games / 14 matches).
- Sun last 15 hard-court average games per match: 21.2 (297 games / 14 matches).
- H2H matches average 21.8 games per match.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets for both players trend slightly above 9.5 games, though the edge is modest.
- Cui last 15 hard-court first-set average games: 9.6.
- Sun last 15 hard-court first-set average games: 9.4.
- H2H first sets have averaged 9.3 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cui's historical first-set dominance in H2H and slightly better recent return stats support a narrow edge.
- Cui first-set win conversion career 86% vs Sun 87%.
- Cui has won 5 of last 6 H2H first sets.
- Cui's recent hard-court first-serve points won 67.6% vs Sun 68.0%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonJie CuiEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent double-fault rates suggest a total below 4.5 is slightly more likely.
- Cui averages 2.4 double faults per match on hard in last 15.
- Sun averages 1.8 double faults per match on hard in last 15.
- Combined average double faults per match: 4.2.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined ace rates sit right at the line, giving a slight lean to the over based on recent hard-court data.
- Cui averages 3.4 aces per match on hard in last 15.
- Sun averages 3.1 aces per match on hard in last 15.
- Combined average aces per match: 6.5.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

4-2 (6 meetings)

W3-6 6-2 6-4Jie Cui#454vFajing Sun#323Sep 28, 2024

W6-3 6-2Jie Cui#454vFajing Sun#323May 25, 2024

W6-3 7-5Jie Cui#454vFajing Sun#323Aug 20, 2023

L6-3 4-6 6-2Jie Cui#454vFajing Sun#323Aug 6, 2023

W6-4 1-0 ret.Jie Cui#454vFajing Sun#323May 31, 2019

L7-5 6-4Jie Cui#454vFajing Sun#323May 19, 2019

6 total meetings

Previous match context available

Jie Cui

6W 9L

6-3 6-4#464James Kent Trotter

6-2 4-6 7-5#524Aziz Dougaz

6-4 6-2#288Petr Bar Biryukov

6-3 6-4#533Aziz Ouakaa

6-7(3) 7-6(4) 6-3#770Matthew Forbes

6-3 6-4#712Thomas Fancutt

6-4 7-6(7)#770Matthew Forbes

6-3 7-6(2)#400Trevor Svajda

4-6 7-6(5) 6-4#652Dmitry Popko

6-0 6-3—Alejandro Jacome Jaramillo

3-6 6-1 6-4#492Duncan Chan

6-4 1-6 7-6(3)#867Qian Sun

6-1 6-3—Shixun Zhu

6-0 6-1#898Jesse Delaney

6-1 7-5#124Bu Yunchaokete

Fajing Sun

6W 9L

6-3 6-3#221Chun Hsin Tseng 6-0 7-5#899Hanyi Liu 6-7(2) 6-4 7-6(2)#370Tung-Lin Wu

7-5 7-5#255Hayato Matsuoka

4-6 7-6(4) 6-3#421Semen Pankin

6-2 3-6 6-2—Zangar Nurlanuly

6-3 7-6(4)#275Ilia Simakin

6-4 6-1#421Semen Pankin

6-4 6-4#340Mees Rottgering

6-2 6-3#87Arthur Gea

6-4 6-3#427Ozan Baris

6-1 6-2#216Braden Shick

6-3 7-6(1)#184Andre Ilagan

6-2 6-2#312Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-2 6-1—Dakotah Bobo

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JCJie CuiCui

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Fajing SunSunFS

Jie Cui carries the stronger recent form — Fajing Sun's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In63.9%+3.4pp60.5%

1st Serve Won68.3%—68.3%

2nd Serve Won49.5%+1.1pp50.6%

Aces / Match3.3+0.33.0

Double Faults / Match2.30.6 fewer1.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won39.9%+2.5pp37.4%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted52.0%+13.8pp38.2%

Break Pts Saved60.0%+2.7pp57.3%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won50.8%+1.7pp49.1%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

63.9%1st Serve In+3.4pp60.5%

68.3%1st Serve Won—68.3%

49.5%2nd Serve Won+1.1pp50.6%

3.3Aces / Match+0.33.0

2.3Double Faults / Match0.6 fewer1.7

Return · 1–0

39.9%Return Pts Won+2.5pp37.4%

Pressure · 2–0

52.0%Break Pts Converted+13.8pp38.2%

60.0%Break Pts Saved+2.7pp57.3%

Points · 1–0

50.8%Total Pts Won+1.7pp49.1%