AustriaTulln - AustriaFinished

Predictions graded

Marko Topo #346Serbia0Vitaliy Sachko #188Ukraine2

Sets 2-6 · 4-6Wed 9 Sept 2026, 12:30 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions4–357%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageVitaliy Sachko · 158 places

Marko Topo

Serbia

A 22-year-old German right-hander with a two-handed backhand. ATP lists clay as his favourite surface, and his published career high is No. 235.

Current ranking: #346
Peak ranking: #235
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Vitaliy Sachko

Ukraine

Sachko, 29, is right-handed and reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 156 in July 2023. His current singles ranking is No. 188.

Current ranking: #188
Peak ranking: #156 · 2023
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Sep 2026, 16:10 · Europe/Bucharest

Vitaliy Sachko is favored over Marko Topo based on better ranking, clay form, and return stats.

The match is expected to be competitive, with over 21.5 total games likely. However, the odds on Sachko offer no value, so consider totals markets instead.

Context

Sachko, ranked 188, has a career clay win percentage of 57% and has been more consistent on the surface this season.
Sachko's recent clay record is 7-5, while Topo is 7-8 over his last 15. Sachko also wins more return points (41.7% vs 38.8%) and second-serve points (55% vs 49.3%), which could give him the edge in longer rallies.
- Sachko last 15 on clay: 7-5 record, 53.8% sets won, 41.7% return points won.
- Topo last 15 on clay: 7-8 record, 45.5% sets won, 38.8% return points won.
- Sachko's second-serve points won on clay is 55% vs Topo's 49.3%.
Topo, ranked 341, has had a mixed clay season with several early losses.
Topo retired against Valerio Aboian on September 1, which could indicate a lingering physical issue. However, he returned to win his next match on September 7, so the retirement may not be a major problem.
- Topo retired on 2026-09-01 vs Valerio Aboian (score 6-1 3-0 ret.).
- Topo won his next match on 2026-09-07 vs Daniel Elahi Galan (6-2 4-6 6-3).
The two players met once before, in 2021, on clay.
Topo won that match in a third-set tiebreak, but it was five years ago and both players have changed since. The result may not be a strong indicator for this match.
- H2H: Topo defeated Sachko 6-1 3-6 7-6(5) on 2021-09-09.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Vitaliy Sachko

1.55fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Sachko's superior recent clay form and return stats give him a moderate edge, but the odds imply a higher probability than the model estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Sachko has better recent form, clay record, and return stats, giving him a moderate edge over Topo.
- Sachko last 15 overall record 8-7 (53.3%) vs Topo 7-8 (46.7%)
- Sachko clay last 12 record 7-5 (58.3%) vs Topo clay last 15 7-8 (46.7%)
- Sachko ranking 188 vs Topo 341
- Sachko return points won 41.0% vs Topo 38.8%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonVitaliy SachkoEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate serve stats and a history of competitive sets, making a longer match likely.
- Topo last 15 average 21.4 games per match, Sachko 22.5
- Topo last 15 6 of 15 matches went over 21.5 games
- Sachko last 15 8 of 15 matches went over 21.5 games
- Both players have similar serve hold rates around 67%
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first-set game averages are near 10, suggesting a competitive opening set.
- Topo last 15 first set average 9.6 games
- Sachko last 15 first set average 9.8 games
- Both players have first serve points won around 67%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have also trended close to 10 games, supporting a modest over lean.
- Topo last 15 second set average 9.3 games
- Sachko last 15 second set average 9.7 games
- Both players have similar break point save rates around 58%
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sachko's stronger second serve and higher first-set conversion rate support a slight edge in the opening set.
- Sachko first set win conversion career 87% vs Topo 79%
- Sachko last 15 first serve points won 67.0% vs Topo 67.1%
- Sachko clay last 12 second serve points won 55.0% vs Topo 49.3%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonVitaliy SachkoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The closeness in overall points won and moderate three-set rates suggest a decent chance of a deciding set.
- Topo last 15 7 of 15 matches went to three sets
- Sachko last 15 6 of 15 matches went to three sets
- Both players have similar overall points won percentages around 50%
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average nearly 5 aces per match, making over 8.5 total aces plausible.
- Topo last 15 aces per match 4.9
- Sachko last 15 aces per match 4.8
- Combined average aces per match 9.7
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Topo's high double fault rate pushes the combined average above the line.
- Topo last 15 double faults per match 3.8
- Sachko last 15 double faults per match 2.3
- Combined average double faults per match 6.1
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players have shown tiebreak involvement, and their serve stats suggest close sets are possible.
- Topo career tiebreak win percentage 57%
- Sachko career tiebreak win percentage 47%
- Both players have had multiple tiebreaks in recent matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance50%

Prediction history

Vitaliy Sachko has been highly reliable when projected to win

Vitaliy Sachko has fulfilled 6 of 6 predictions when projected to win. The average estimated probability was 64.2%, with an expected 3.9 fulfilled predictions, so he has exceeded expectation. The current probability of 58% is within his historical range of 58% to 72%.

Recent evidence for Vitaliy Sachko6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

18 Jul·ATP Kitzbuhel

#783Federico Coria0-2#195Vitaliy Sachko

BetBugsVitaliy Sachko to win·58%

Matched

18 Jul 2026

ATP Kitzbuhel

#783Federico Coria0-2#195Vitaliy Sachko

Vitaliy Sachko to win

58%probability

Vitaliy Sachko won

Matched

11 Jul·ATP Gstaad

#386Manas Dhamne0-2#198Vitaliy Sachko

BetBugsVitaliy Sachko to win·65%

Matched

11 Jul 2026

ATP Gstaad

#386Manas Dhamne0-2#198Vitaliy Sachko

Vitaliy Sachko to win

65%probability

Vitaliy Sachko won

Matched

10 Jun·Bratislava - Slovakia

#215Vitaliy Sachko1-0#527Thanasi Kokkinakis

BetBugsVitaliy Sachko to win·58%

Matched

10 Jun 2026

Bratislava - Slovakia

#215Vitaliy Sachko1-0#527Thanasi Kokkinakis

Vitaliy Sachko to win

58%probability

Vitaliy Sachko won

Matched

8 Jun·Bratislava - Slovakia

#210Vitaliy Sachko2-0#271Yosuke Watanuki

BetBugsVitaliy Sachko to win·72%

Matched

8 Jun 2026

Bratislava - Slovakia

#210Vitaliy Sachko2-0#271Yosuke Watanuki

Vitaliy Sachko to win

72%probability

Vitaliy Sachko won

Matched

2 Jun·Prostejov - Czech Republic

#210Vitaliy Sachko2-1#679Jan Kumstat

BetBugsVitaliy Sachko to win·72%

Matched

2 Jun 2026

Prostejov - Czech Republic

#210Vitaliy Sachko2-1#679Jan Kumstat

Vitaliy Sachko to win

72%probability

Vitaliy Sachko won

Matched

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-1 3-6 7-6(5)Marko Topo#341vVitaliy Sachko#188Sep 9, 2021

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Marko Topo

7W 8L

6-2 4-6 6-3#335Daniel Elahi Galan

6-1 3-0 ret.#431Valerio Aboian

6-3 6-4#316Miguel Damas

3-6 6-3 6-3#406Carlos Taberner

5-7 6-3 7-6(3)#318Max Schoenhaus

6-4 6-4#855Dominik Recek

6-2 6-2#723Oscar Jose Gutierrez

6-4 7-5#170Elmer Moller

6-3 7-6(4)#431Valerio Aboian

6-4 6-1#601Leonardo Rossi

6-4 6-1#523Alexander Donski

6-7(2) 7-6(3) 6-3#77Camilo Ugo Carabelli

7-6(7) 7-5#191Lukas Neumayer

6-4 ret.#210Pol Martin Tiffon

6-1 7-6(3)#201Lorenzo Giustino

Vitaliy Sachko

8W 7L

6-4 7-5#503Daniel Siniakov

6-2 4-6 7-6(11)#126Pablo Llamas Ruiz

7-5 7-5#158Gauthier Onclin

7-6(6) 7-6(5)#413Dylan Dietrich

5-7 6-1 6-4#221Chun Hsin Tseng

3-6 7-6(3) 6-4#201Lorenzo Giustino

6-4 7-6(4)#143Jurij Rodionov

7-6(5) 6-2#897Federico Coria

6-2 6-4#205Timofey Skatov

6-4 6-1#381Manas Manoj Dhamne

6-3 7-6(4)#117Shintaro Mochizuki

6-4 6-3#98Alexander Shevchenko

3-6 6-3 6-2#366Petr Brunclik

5-2 ret.#417Thanasi Kokkinakis

6-2 7-6(4)#420Yosuke Watanuki

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MTMarko TopoTopo

Last 15

2–5

9 core stats · 2 even

Vitaliy SachkoSachkoVS

Vitaliy Sachko carries the stronger recent form — Marko Topo's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 0–3 · 2 even

1st Serve In56.6%+5.3pp61.9%

1st Serve Won67.1%—67.0%

2nd Serve Won49.3%+2.4pp51.7%

Aces / Match4.9—4.8

Double Faults / Match3.81.5 fewer2.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won38.8%+2.2pp41.0%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted51.3%+4.6pp46.7%

Break Pts Saved59.3%+1.7pp57.6%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.5%+1.5pp51.0%

Serve · 0–3 · 2 even

56.6%1st Serve In+5.3pp61.9%

67.1%1st Serve Won—67.0%

49.3%2nd Serve Won+2.4pp51.7%

4.9Aces / Match—4.8

3.8Double Faults / Match1.5 fewer2.3

Return · 0–1

38.8%Return Pts Won+2.2pp41.0%

Pressure · 2–0

51.3%Break Pts Converted+4.6pp46.7%

59.3%Break Pts Saved+1.7pp57.6%

Points · 0–1

49.5%Total Pts Won+1.5pp51.0%